Dow 50K milestone meets SaaSpocalypse selloff. Old Economy leads as AI capex skepticism grows. Crypto flash crashes on tariff war fears.
Two seismic forces collided this week. Anthropic's Claude Cowork launch triggered a $300B SaaS wipeout ("SaaSpocalypse"), while the Dow crossed 50,000 for the first time in history, powered by a furious rotation into industrials, materials, and financials. Meanwhile, a tariff-fueled US-EU standoff over Greenland sent crypto into its worst week since FTX, with Bitcoin flash-crashing to $60,255.
The macro picture is structural divergence: Old Economy cyclicals outperform as tariff-driven reshoring and AI infrastructure spend create real-world demand. But the "4% monetization problem" weighs on tech multiples as hyperscalers guide $200B+ in AI capex with limited near-term revenue proof.
The Fed remains on hold at 3.50-3.75%, but weak labor data (ADP +22K, claims 231K) and a delayed jobs report have the bond market pricing two cuts by year-end.
| Meeting | Hold | 25bp Cut | 50bp+ Cut | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 18 | ~77% | ~23% | <1% | Likely hold |
| June 2026 | ~45% | ~40% | ~15% | First cut most likely |
| Sept 2026 | ~25% | ~40% | ~35% | Second cut priced |
| Dec 2026 | ~15% | ~30% | ~55% | Third cut possible |
| Ticker | Sector | Tier | Close | Weekly % | Catalyst / Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | AI Infra | 1 | $185.41 | -1.2% | Down for week despite +7.9% Fri rebound; SaaS selloff drag |
| AVGO | AI Infra | 1 | $332.92 | +2.0% | Custom silicon thesis intact; hyperscaler capex beneficiary |
| GOOGL | AI Infra | 1 | ~$343 | -2.0% | Cloud +48% to $17.7B; $175-185B capex guide weighed |
| AMZN | AI Infra | 1 | ~$235 | -6.0% | AWS +24%; $200B capex shock — 4% monetization problem |
| AMD | AI Infra | 1 | ~$148 | -4.0% | Record Q4 $10.3B; DC $5.4B (+39%); MI350 ramping |
| VRT | AI Infra | 2 | $195.58 | +10.0% | Power/cooling demand; "physical AI" rotation beneficiary |
| PLTR | AI / Defense | 2 | $135.90 | +4.5% | Q4 beat: $1.41B (+70% YoY); FY26 guide $7.2B crushed est |
| CEG | Nuclear | 1 | $261.42 | +5.8% | 22.6 GW fleet; AI power demand; TMI restart on track |
| VST | Nuclear | 1 | $149.65 | +4.6% | Meta 2.6 GW nuclear PPA; earnings growth +73-93% |
| MP | Minerals | 1 | $61.26 | +8.3% | Rare earth sentiment; DOD equity; NdPr +15% YTD |
| FCX | Minerals | 1 | $60.65 | +2.4% | Copper $5.77/lb; Grasberg Q2 restart; structural deficit |
| ALB | Minerals | 2 | ~$163 | -4.3% | Lithium pullback from CNY 180K; capex-intensive |
| LMT | Defense | 1 | ~$510 | +3.0% | $194B backlog; PAC-3 ramp; rotation beneficiary |
| RTX | Defense | 1 | ~$136 | +4.0% | Five missile framework agreements; Dow 50K beneficiary |
| RKLB | Space | 2 | ~$40 | +5.0% | SDA contracts; defense space spending |
| CRWD | Cyber | 1 | ~$415 | -5.0% | Strong fundamentals but SaaS rotation headwind |
| PANW | Cyber | 1 | ~$195 | -4.0% | Software selloff drag; CyberArk deal pending |
| EOSE | Storage | 3 | ~$6.20 | +8.5% | $303M DOE loan; 35x YoY revenue growth |
| QS | Storage | 3 | ~$7.50 | -3.5% | Pre-revenue; Eagle Line pilot Feb 2026; binary outcome |
| ISRG | Robotics | 1 | ~$600 | -2.0% | Slight pullback; fundamentals strong |
| SYM | Robotics | 2 | ~$52 | +3.0% | Warehouse automation; industrial capex rotation |
| IONQ | Quantum | 1 | ~$35.00 | +14.2% | Strong rebound Feb 6; Q4 earnings Feb 25 |
| Commodity | Close | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | ~$63.70/bbl | Down |
| Brent Crude | ~$68.05/bbl | Down |
| Natural Gas | $3.42/MMBtu | -2.5% |
| Commodity | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | ~$4,966/oz | Volatile |
| Silver | ~$77.98/oz | +10% Fri |
| Copper | ~$5.77/lb | Worst wk since Nov |
| Uranium | $85.25/lb | -9.5% from peak |
| Pair | Level | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 97.69 | +0.9% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1812 | +0.32% Fri |
| USD/JPY | 156.70 | +0.07% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3603 | +0.62% Fri |
BDI: 1,923 (down 5 consecutive days)
Chip tariff: 25% revenue-sharing on advanced semis
Auto tariff: S. Korea vehicles 15%→25%
Pharma: 100% on branded drugs outside discount platforms
| Fund | Flow | Note |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot ETFs | Net outflows | Pre-crash inflows reversed |
| ETH Spot ETFs | -$447M | Worst since inception |
| — ETHA (BlackRock) | -$264M | Largest single withdrawal |
| Ticker | Close | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| COIN | ~$146-166 | -20% to -25% |
| MSTR | ~$135 | -10% WoW |
| MARA | — | -20%+ |
| RIOT | — | -15%+ |
NFP (Feb 11) and CPI (Feb 12) back-to-back could create extreme volatility in rates and equities.
If AI displacement fears spread beyond SaaS to broader tech, rotation could accelerate further.
$2.6B liquidation cleared leverage but fast $70K recovery may rebuild speculative positions prematurely.
Record $1T bond issuance pace could widen spreads if institutional demand falters.
New sanctions post-Oman talks + unresolved nuclear issues = oil supply disruption risk.