AI disruption fears broaden beyond SaaS. Software loses $1T in a week. Infrastructure builders surge while the disrupted get repriced. CPI cools but markets shrug.
What began as a SaaS-specific selloff in W06 metastasized into a broad-based reckoning with AI disruption. Software stocks lost $1 trillion in market cap this week alone, extending the S&P North American software index to a 15% monthly decline — the worst since October 2008. AI automation fears spread into financials, trucking, and real estate, producing the broadest AI-driven selloff yet.
The week's macro bright spot — a cooler CPI print (headline 2.4% YoY, core 2.5% YoY, lowest since April 2021) — barely registered. The S&P gained just 0.05% on Friday as AI disruption fears dominated the macro narrative. When good inflation data can't move stocks, the fear narrative is in control.
The earnings split told the story: Applied Materials surged 13% on 75% YoY EPS growth, while Shopify fell 6% despite 31% revenue growth. The market is rewarding infrastructure builders and punishing the disrupted.
| Meeting | Hold | 25bp Cut | 50bp+ Cut | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 18 | ~60% | ~38% | ~2% | Coin-flip; CPI argues for cut |
| June 2026 | ~20% | ~50% | ~30% | First cut 80%+ odds |
| Sept 2026 | ~10% | ~35% | ~55% | Two cuts base case |
| Dec 2026 | ~8% | ~22% | ~70% | Three cuts priced (75 bps) |
| Data Point | Actual | Expected | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan NFP | +130K | +55K | Beat; healthcare heavy |
| Jan CPI YoY | 2.4% | 2.5% | Beat — lowest since May '25 |
| Jan Core CPI YoY | 2.5% | 2.6% | Lowest since April 2021 |
| Jan Core CPI MoM | +0.3% | +0.3% | In-line |
| Initial Claims | 227K | 222K | Slightly elevated |
| Ticker | Sector | Tier | Close | Weekly % | Catalyst / Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | AI Infra | 1 | $182.78 | -1.4% | AI capex scrutiny pressure; down 7 of last 10 sessions |
| AVGO | AI Infra | 1 | $324.85 | -2.4% | Custom silicon intact but caught in semi weakness |
| AMD | AI Infra | 1 | ~$142 | -4.0% | MI400 catalyst approaching; Q1 guide soft |
| AMAT | AI Infra | 2 | ~$220 | +13.0% | EPS +75% YoY; record DRAM rev; Q2 guide $7.65B |
| ANET | AI Infra | 2 | ~$115 | +10.0% | Surpassed $1B net income; AI networking $3.25B target |
| VRT | AI Infra | 2 | ~$190 | -3.0% | Pullback from W06 +10%; power infra demand intact |
| PLTR | AI / Defense | 2 | $131.41 | -3.3% | Down 27% YTD; W06 rally faded |
| CEG | Nuclear | 1 | $288.43 | +4.5% | 22.6 GW fleet; CPI rate-cut tailwind; TMI restart |
| VST | Nuclear | 1 | $171.49 | +14.6% | Week's top performer; Meta PPA; +73-93% earnings growth |
| CCJ | Nuclear | 2 | $112.90 | -3.0% | Uranium pullback; NexGen CNSC decision pending |
| MP | Minerals | 1 | $58.03 | +1.3% | NdPr +37% YTD; DOD equity; China export controls |
| FCX | Minerals | 1 | $62.84 | +1.3% | Copper $5.90/lb; Grasberg Q2 restart approaching |
| ALB | Minerals | 2 | ~$167 | -1.4% | Lithium pullback from CNY 180K to 155K; Q4 miss |
| LAC | Minerals | 3 | $4.63 | +2.0% | Thacker Pass advancing; pre-production |
| LMT | Defense | 1 | $652.58 | +2.4% | $194B backlog; PAC-3 ramp; safe haven |
| RTX | Defense | 1 | $200.06 | -0.5% | Framework agreements; GTF recovery |
| RKLB | Space | 2 | $67.44 | +2.2% | SDA contracts $1.33B+; defense space spending |
| CRWD | Cyber | 1 | $429.28 | +3.4% | Resilient vs SaaS peers; platform consolidation |
| PANW | Cyber | 1 | ~$190 | -2.5% | Dragged by SaaS selloff; CyberArk deal pending |
| FLNC | Storage | 1 | ~$27 | -3.0% | $5.5B backlog; lower rates improve project econ |
| EOSE | Storage | 2 | ~$8 | +2.0% | LDES thesis; $303M DOE loan |
| QS | Storage | 3 | ~$10 | -5.0% | Eagle Line pilot underway; pre-revenue binary |
| ISRG | Robotics | 1 | ~$590 | -2.0% | da Vinci 5 cycle; 85% recurring revenue |
| SYM | Robotics | 1 | ~$53 | +2.0% | $22.7B backlog; warehouse automation rotation |
| IONQ | Quantum | 1 | ~$42 | -8.0% | Tech selloff; Q4 earnings Feb 25 binary event |
| LUNR | Space | 1 | $15.72 | -8.0% | Post-acquisition pullback; IM-2 risk |
| Commodity | Close | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $62.81/bbl | -1.4% |
| Brent Crude | $67.57/bbl | -0.7% |
| Natural Gas | ~$3.50/MMBtu | +2.3% |
| Commodity | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | ~$4,990/oz | +1.1% |
| Silver | ~$78.90/oz | +1.2% |
| Copper | ~$5.90/lb | Flat |
| Uranium | ~$88/lb | +3.2% |
| Pair | Level | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 96.88 | -0.8% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1862 | +0.4% |
| USD/JPY | 152.58 | -2.6% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3639 | +0.3% |
BDI: ~1,882 (-2.1% WoW; 7-session losing streak)
Tariff fatigue: 6 House Republicans voted to end Canada tariffs
India tariff: Lowered from 25% → 18%
Chip tariff: 25% revenue-sharing on advanced semis persists
| Fund | Flow | Note |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot ETFs | +$616M | Outflow streak broken |
| ETH Spot ETFs | -$161M | 4th consecutive outflow week |
| — ETHA | Large outflows | Largest single-fund withdrawals |
| Ticker | Close | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| COIN | ~$164.50 | +12% |
| MSTR | ~$148 | +9% |
| MARA | ~$7.93 | Flat |
| RIOT | ~$6.50 | -5% |
Fears spreading beyond SaaS into financials, logistics, real estate. Could trigger broader de-risking if earnings guidance reflects displacement.
-15% monthly decline is worst since 2008. Capitulation selling could accelerate if key support levels break.
Core MoM was in-line at +0.3%, not a beat. One more hot reading resets the entire rate-cut narrative.
If January minutes reveal broad opposition to near-term cuts, March pricing collapses from 38% to near-zero.
House Republicans breaking ranks suggests tariff regime may be unstable. Creates two-way risk for trade-sensitive names.