SCOTUS strikes down Trump tariffs. FOMC minutes reveal rate-hike debate. Stagflation data collides with a relief rally. Energy leads +14% YTD, crypto bleeds to Extreme Fear.
The week's two dominant events — the January FOMC minutes revealing a sharply divided committee openly discussing rate hikes, and the Supreme Court's landmark 6-3 ruling striking down Trump's IEEPA tariffs — collided with stagflation-flavored data (Q4 GDP 1.4% vs. hot core PCE at 3.0%) to create a market that rallied on the surface but roiled underneath. The S&P 500 gained 1.1% to 6,909.51 on what was ultimately a tariff-relief and short-covering rally, with the Nasdaq snapping a five-week losing streak.
But the internals tell a more conflicted story: the VIX settled at 19.09 (elevated), institutional SPX put/call hit 1.28 (heavy hedging), and the equity put/call at 0.65 screamed retail complacency — a divergence that often precedes choppy action. The defining rotation of early 2026 — energy over tech, physical economy over digital — continued unabated. Energy leads all sectors at +14% YTD, outpacing the Nasdaq by ~1,200 bps in six weeks.
The macro picture is increasingly stagflationary. The GDP miss (1.4% annualized, partially government-shutdown-driven) combined with core PCE re-accelerating to 3.0% puts the Fed in an impossible bind. The FOMC minutes revealed a three-way split — some wanting cuts, others favoring holds, and several explicitly raising hikes — a level of policy uncertainty not seen since 2022.
| Meeting | Hold | 25bp Cut | Hike Priced? | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 18 | ~94% | ~6% | No | Cut odds collapsed from ~38% |
| June 2026 | ~50% | ~45% | ~5% | Earliest plausible cut |
| Full Year | Two cuts (50 bps) base case | Growing | Down from three cuts (75 bps) | |
| Data Point | Actual | Signal | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q4 GDP (Advance) | 1.4% | Miss — partially shutdown-driven | Private economy grew 2.4% |
| Core PCE (Dec) | 3.0% | Re-accelerating | Stagflation signal |
| SCOTUS Tariff Ruling | 6-3 Strike Down | IEEPA tariffs unconstitutional | Deflationary; ecommerce boost |
| Ticker | Sector | Tier | Close | Weekly | Catalyst / Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | AI Infra | 1 | ~$185 | Flat | Q4 earnings Feb 25 — $65.6B rev consensus; THE market event |
| AVGO | AI Infra | 1 | ~$333 | Moderate | Custom silicon narrative; XPU business doubling |
| VRT | AI Infra | 1 | ~$244 | Positive | $9.5B backlog; power/cooling demand strong |
| ANET | AI Infra | 1 | ~$139 | Moderate | 800G switching cycle continues |
| PLTR | AI / Defense | 2 | ~$135 | Flat | Down 27% from 2026 highs; 190x P/E; AIP momentum |
| CEG | AI / Nuclear | 1 | Positive | Positive | Calpine acquisition creates 55 GW clean energy giant |
| VST | Nuclear | 1 | Positive | Positive | Meta 2.6 GW deal; 73-93% earnings growth guided |
| CCJ | Nuclear | 1 | Strong | Positive | Uranium ~$92/lb; Kazatomprom production cuts |
| SMR | Nuclear | 2 | ~$5B mktcap | — | 6 GW TVA MOU; NRC-certified; pre-revenue |
| OKLO | Nuclear | 2 | ~$11B mktcap | — | 1.2 GW Meta deal; pre-revenue |
| LMT | Defense | 1 | ~$667 | Positive | $194B backlog; FY2026 guide $77.5-80B |
| RTX | Defense | 1 | ~$200 | Positive | $268B backlog; 5 missile framework agreements |
| NOC | Defense | 1 | ~$703 | Positive | B-21 acceleration; GPI prime contractor |
| LHX | Defense | 1 | ~$346 | Positive | ~16% margins; Missile Solutions IPO H2 2026 |
| AVAV | Defense | 2 | ~$245 | Pullback | +62% YTD; $3.5B contracts; 151% rev growth |
| KTOS | Defense | 2 | ~$88 | Strong | +72% YTD; XQ-58A Valkyrie CCA |
| PANW | Cyber | 1 | ~$157 | -7% | Revenue beat $2.6B but $25B CyberArk deal margin pressure |
| CRWD | Cyber | 1 | ~$389 | -8% | FY2027 guidance coming next quarter |
| FTNT | Cyber | 1 | Positive | Positive | Smoked Q4 (EPS $0.81); 40% SASE billings surge |
| ZS | Cyber | 2 | Slight gains | Positive | Benefiting from PANW rotation |
| MP | Minerals | 1 | +115% past yr | Strong | Only US mine-to-magnet; DOD largest shareholder |
| FCX | Minerals | 1 | — | Pullback | Copper ~$5.77/lb; Grasberg restart Q2 |
| ALB | Minerals | 1 | — | — | Lithium above $20K/t; Kings Mountain restart |
| TSLA | Storage / EV | 1 | ~$412 | Flat | Optimus 50K units target; Cybercab April start |
| FLNC | Storage | 1 | ~$16.56 | — | Revenue +154% YoY; $5.5B backlog |
| EOSE | Storage | 2 | ~$2B mktcap | — | 35x YoY rev growth; $303M DOE loan |
| QS | Storage | 2 | ~$5.1B mktcap | — | Eagle Line pilot Feb 2026; binary solid-state |
| RKLB | Space | 1 | ~$71 | — | Earnings Feb 26; $1.33B+ SDA contracts; Neutron key |
| PL | Space | 1 | ~$23.45 | +21% YTD | $734.5M backlog (+216%); defense EO inflecting |
| LUNR | Space | 2 | ~$17.51 | Surged | KeyBanc PT $20→$26; Artemis II collab |
| IONQ | Quantum | 1 | Down >20% YTD | Weak | Earnings Feb 25; validating $106-110M FY2025 rev |
| QBTS | Quantum | 2 | ~$18 | Down >20% YTD | Advantage2 outperformed Frontier; gate-model pivot |
| HON | Quantum | 1 | ~$145B mktcap | — | 53% Quantinuum stake; IPO at $20B+ |
| ISRG | Robotics | 1 | ~$176B mktcap | — | 11,106 da Vinci systems; 85% recurring revenue |
| SYM | Robotics | 1 | ~$54 | Positive | First net income ($13M); $22.7B backlog |
| AUR | Robotics | 2 | ~$8.3B mktcap | — | First commercial driverless trucking; Dallas-Houston |
| Commodity | Close | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| WTI Crude | $66.30/bbl | +5.7% |
| Brent Crude | $71.30/bbl | +5.0%+ |
| Natural Gas | ~$3.00/MMBtu | -6.5% |
| Commodity | Level | Move |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | $5,107/oz | +2.5% |
| Silver | ~$82/oz | +1-2% |
| Copper | ~$5.77/lb | -3-4% from Jan |
| Uranium | ~$92/lb | -2.5% from Jan |
| Pair | Level | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 97.75 | -0.3% |
| EUR/USD | 1.1785 | +0.1% |
| USD/JPY | 154.95 | +1.5% |
| GBP/USD | 1.3473 | +0.1% |
Iran: Trump signals military strike within 10 days; highest US-Iran escalation since 2020
SCOTUS: 6-3 ruling strikes down IEEPA tariffs as unconstitutional
Replacement: Trump announces immediate 10% global tariff replacement
OPEC+: Maintaining 2.9M bpd voluntary cuts
| Fund | Flow | Note |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Spot ETFs | -$210M | 5th straight outflow week ($3.8B cumulative) |
| ETH Spot ETFs | -$40-50M | Persistent outflows continue |
| Stablecoins | $314B mktcap | Near ATH — massive dry powder |
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Mining Difficulty | +14.73% to 144.4T | Largest absolute increase in history |
| Hash Price | $23.9/PH/day | Multi-year low |
| Whale Activity | +53,000 BTC (~$4B) | Accumulation over 2 weeks |
1.4% GDP + 3.0% core PCE is an ugly combination. If Jan PCE stays hot (>2.8%), the stagflation narrative solidifies and pressures growth/duration names.
Single biggest catalyst of Q1. A miss or cautious Rubin guidance could trigger the largest single-day sector repricing of 2026. Everything else is noise until Feb 25.
Trump signaled potential military strike within 10 days. 20M bbl/day flows through Strait of Hormuz. Oil spike could re-accelerate inflation.
Three-way split (cut/hold/hike) in FOMC minutes. Rate-hike scenario not seen since 2022. March cut odds collapsed from 38% to 6%.
Fear & Greed at 8 (Extreme Fear), $3.8B ETF outflows over 5 weeks. $760M Chinese whale transfer to Binance raises sell-side risk. $65,600 BTC is the line in the sand.
Short-term positive, but Trump's immediate 10% global replacement limits upside. Watch for alternative legal authority attempts. Two-way risk for trade-sensitive names.