S&P 500 closed Friday at a fresh 7,165.08 ATH on a fourth straight weekly gain, lifted by an Intel blowout (+24%, best day since 1987) that drove SMH +5.10% to +40.67% YTD. Then the weekend rewrote the script — Trump scrapped the Iran talks, Tehran re-imposed Hormuz controls, Brent jumped +2% to $107.97. On the same Friday, DOJ dropped the Powell probe and Sunday Tillis released his hold on Warsh — year-end Fed-cut odds repriced from 23% to 38%. A lame-duck Powell walks into FOMC week with Iran-driven inflation in his face.
| Index / Asset | Fri Apr 24 | Daily Δ | Weekly Δ | YTD | Weekend / Sun PM |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 (SPX) | 7,165.08 | +0.80% | ~+0.6% | n/a | ES -0.3% on Iran |
| Nasdaq-100 (NDX) | 27,303.67 | +1.95% | Strong | n/a | NQ -0.3% |
| Dow Jones (DJIA) | 49,230.71 | -0.16% | Mixed | n/a | YM -0.2% (~-130 pts) |
| Russell 2000 (RUT) | 2,787.00 | +0.43% | Modest | n/a | — |
| VIX | 18.71 | Down on day | Down on wk | — | Gap-up risk Mon |
| 2Y UST | 3.78% | -5 bps PM | +8 bps wk | — | Bid on Warsh path |
| 10Y UST | 4.31% | Flat-down | +7 bps wk | — | — |
| 30Y UST | 4.91% | Flat | ~+8 bps wk | — | — |
| WTI Crude | $94.40 | -1% | ~+14% | ~+69% | Mid-to-high $90s |
| Brent Crude | $105.33 | -1% | ~+16% | ~+75% | $107.97 (+2%) |
| Gold | ~$4,697 | Down | ~-3% | Strong | Weekend bid likely |
| Silver | ~$75.63 | Down | ~-7% | Strong YTD | — |
| Copper (HG) | $6.02/lb | — | -1.26% | — | China demand questions |
| Lithium (CNY) | 173,000/t | Flat | — | +147% YoY | 3-mo high • +13% MoM |
| Uranium (U3O8) | $88.20 | — | Steady | — | ~$85 futures |
| Nat Gas (HH) | $2.52 | — | -5.8% | — | Lowest since Oct ’24 |
| DXY | 98.52 | -0.25% | +0.4–0.7% | — | Safe-haven bid |
| EUR/USD | ~1.1700 | — | Inside-bar wk | — | Hormuz exposure |
| USD/JPY | 159.30 | — | JPY ~-1% | — | Spinning-top weekly |
| GBP/USD | ~1.3500 | — | Inside bar | — | — |
| Bitcoin | $78,278 (4/24 open) | Range-bound | +5.81% | +13.6% MTD | $77,875 live |
| Ethereum | ~$2,360 | Range-bound | Up w/ BTC | — | $2,331 live |
| Fear & Greed (Crypto) | 39 (Fri) | -8 in a day | — | — | 31 Sun |
Friday's index ATH was a ceasefire bet. The bet broke Saturday. Trump abruptly canceled the planned Pakistan trip of Special Envoy Witkoff and Jared Kushner, telling Fox News "We have all the cards. They can call us anytime they want." Pakistan-mediated US-Iran peace talks are effectively dead. Within hours Iran re-imposed Hormuz controls citing an order from Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei; Deputy Speaker Nikzad said the Strait will "under no circumstances" return to its previous state. Reports of gunfire on tankers and vessels turning back. As of April 25, only 19 vessels transited (5 in / 14 out) versus a normal baseline of 120-140/day. Iran's FM Araghchi is en route to meet Putin in Moscow Monday — Tehran is pivoting to Russia, not de-escalating.
Friday Apr 24: DOJ (US Attorney Pirro, DC) formally dropped the criminal probe into Chair Powell. Probe centered on Fed HQ renovation cost overruns — matter referred to Fed Inspector General. Sunday Apr 26: Senator Thom Tillis (R-NC) confirmed he is dropping his hold on Kevin Warsh's confirmation, clearing the Senate floor path.
Markets immediately repriced. Friday afternoon: 2Y -5 bps, dollar -0.28% to 98.55, year-end fed funds futures repriced from 23% → 38% odds of a cut. Warsh is perceived as materially more dovish than Powell in the current setup — track record of preferring trimmed-mean inflation measures (which read lower) and arguing rates should be lower. The April 29 FOMC will almost certainly be Powell's penultimate or final meeting as Chair.
April 23: EU adopted the 20th sanctions package — basis for a future maritime services ban on Russian crude/products; mandatory due diligence on tanker sales targeting the shadow fleet; LNG terminal services to Russian entities banned from January 2027. Ukraine has intensified strikes on Russian ports/refineries; April Russian oil exports could fall to lowest since 2023. Layered onto the Hormuz shock, supply tightness is structural, not headline.
Crypto weekend: BTC ~$78K Sunday on light tape. Crypto Fear & Greed collapsed to 31 (-8 in a day) Friday-Saturday. $22.44M longs vs $11.60M shorts liquidated Saturday — bulls absorbing 2:1 of the pain. Ethereum Foundation unstaked $48.9M ETH heading into weekend (sell overhang); Grayscale + Bitmine staked $500M ETH on Apr 25 (institutional bid). Litecoin hit by zero-day DoS attack, no chain halt; underlying vulnerability had been privately patched March 19-26.
The S&P 500 finished Friday at 7,165.08 — a fresh record — on a fourth straight weekly gain, lifted by an Intel blowout that drove the semiconductor complex to +40.67% YTD. INTC alone delivered its best day since 1987 (+24%) on a Q1 print where DCAI revenue grew +22% YoY and EPS beat by 2,800%. Then Saturday happened. Trump scrapped the Witkoff/Kushner trip to Pakistan, calling off the second round of Iran peace talks. Iran's FM pivoted to Putin in Moscow. Tehran re-imposed its Strait of Hormuz closure within hours of the brief reopening. Brent jumped >2% in Sunday-night Asian trade to a three-week high of $107.97. Equity futures opened ~0.3% lower. The Friday rally was a ceasefire bet — that bet is now broken heading into a high-stakes FOMC week.
On Friday, the DOJ formally dropped its criminal probe into Chair Powell. On Sunday morning, Senator Tillis confirmed he is dropping his hold on Kevin Warsh's confirmation. Markets immediately repriced: front-end Treasuries rallied (2Y -5 bps Friday afternoon), year-end Fed cut probability jumped from 23% → 38%, the dollar slipped to 98.55. The April 29 FOMC will almost certainly be Powell's penultimate or final meeting as Chair. With FOMC priced 97.9% for hold, the entire event risk is in Powell's tone — defending his legacy under unique political pressure with Iran-driven inflation in his face.
Beneath the index highs, the U-Mich final April Consumer Sentiment came in at 49.8 — the lowest in the 74-year survey's history, below 2008, COVID, and 2022. Software cratered Thursday (NOW -17%, IBM -8%, IGV -5%) on AI-cannibalization fears. Meanwhile, BTC quietly grinds toward $80K with $2.25B of shorts queued for liquidation, whales accumulate at 7-year low exchange reserves, and DeFi is digesting the largest hack of 2026 (KelpDAO, $292M). Position the book for an FOMC + earnings week (GOOG Tue, AAPL Thu, advance GDP and Core PCE Thu) that opens with Brent in triple digits and a lame-duck Fed Chair at the podium.
Thursday afternoon delivered a coordinated software washout on AI-cannibalization fears: NOW -17%, CRM -9%, IBM -8%, HUBS -8%, ADBE -7%, ORCL/INTU -6%, IGV -5%. The tape is reading every "AI replaces seats" comment as a multiple-compression catalyst on the SaaS complex. The countervailing print is INTC's Friday blowout — data-center capex hyperscaler-led growth is intact, but the value is migrating up the AI stack. Cybersecurity (PANW/ZS/CRWD) trades with the IGV beta on tape but has Iran-retaliation cyber call optionality (Volt/Salt Typhoon narratives).
Friday's tape was an everything-rally led by semis and tech as the Iran-ceasefire bet held. Monday opens with the bet broken: XLE bid sharply higher, defense (LMT/NOC/LHX) catches a flight-to-quality bid, semis trim the 18-day winning streak, transports/airlines lag on $100+ Brent, and software sits in the post-Thursday penalty box. Healthcare and staples should attract a defensive bid; financials remain range-bound into the FOMC.
Decidedly hawkish given Iran. Quote framework: "If Hormuz reopens, I would be cautious about rate cuts now... if conflict persists, maintaining the policy rate at the current target range may be necessary if inflation risks outweigh labor market concerns." A "sequence of shocks" warning invoked the 2021-2022 unanchoring playbook. No cut imminent in his view; rate hikes not explicitly ruled out under prolonged conflict.
| Auction | Size | Bid-to-Cover | Tail (bps) | Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | $69B | — | — | "Went poorly" |
| 5-Year | $70B | 2.29 | +1.4 bps | vs 0.3 avg tail; primary dealer absorption 16% (vs 11%) |
| 7-Year | $44B | — | +0.8 bps | vs 0.3 avg tail |
| FY25 deficit-to-GDP at 5.9%; Bessent targeting "3% by end of administration." Term-premium pressure is structural. | ||||
Brent peaked above $120 earlier in the crisis; physical crude reportedly traded near $150/bbl in some bilateral deals. IEA April Oil Market Report: OPEC+ production fell 9.4 mb/d MoM; OPEC alone collapsed 27% from 28.7 → 20.8 mb/d — the IEA called it "the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market." Hormuz transits down ~80%; >150 tankers anchored outside the Strait. EIA week 4/17: crude inventories +1.93 mb (bearish surprise); gasoline -4.6 mb (bullish), distillates -3.4 mb (bullish). Henry Hub's divergence from oil reflects mild weather + storage 8% above seasonal norms + producer curtailments.
| Metal | Level | Weekly |
|---|---|---|
| Gold | ~$4,697/oz | -3% (1st down wk in 5) |
| Silver | ~$75.63 | -7% w/w |
| Copper | $6.02/lb | -1.26% |
| Lithium (Li2CO3) | CNY 173,000/t | +13% MoM • +147% YoY |
| Uranium (U3O8) | $88.20/lb | Steady • ~$85 fut |
| Pair | Level | Note |
|---|---|---|
| DXY | 98.52 | +0.4–0.7% (1st up wk in 3) |
| USD/JPY | 159.30 | JPY ~-1% w/w |
| EUR/USD | ~1.1700 | Inside-bar weekly |
| GBP/USD | ~1.3500 | Spinning-top weekly |
| TRY/RUB | 1.6722 | -22.10% YoY |
Resistance $80,000 — failed Wednesday breakout, $2.25B in shorts queued for liquidation if breached. Support $77,000 — defended Friday; break opens $75,000. Best month since April 2025. Altcoin Season Index 37 (BTC-dominant regime). Targets the 66% June 2025 cycle high in dominance.
| Coin | Price | Note |
|---|---|---|
| SOL | $86.45 | +1.67% 7d • $49.77B mcap |
| XRP | ~$1.43 | +5% 30d • quantum-resistant upgrade |
| AVAX | $9.47 | — |
| LINK | $8.76 | +4.23% |
| DOGE | ~$0.092 | +1.1% • meme +20% MTD |
$292M (116,500 rsETH) drained via compromised LayerZero 1-of-1 verifier RPC nodes. Lazarus Group (DPRK) attribution. Backed rsETH on 20+ chains. Total DeFi TVL fell from $99.5B to $86.3B in 48 hours (-$13.2B); Aave alone shed $6B. Arbitrum Security Council froze 30,766 ETH tied to the exploiter on 4/20. April 2026 is now the worst month for crypto hacks since February 2025 ($606M lost in first 18 days).
The April 28–May 1 calendar is exceptionally heavy: the FOMC decision (Wed), advance Q1 GDP (Thu), the Fed's preferred inflation measure (Core PCE, Thu), AAPL Q2 earnings (Thu AC), and ISM Manufacturing (Fri) — all packed into 72 hours. GOOG kicks it off Tuesday after-close. The Iran/Hormuz tape and Powell's lame-duck press conference are the pivots.
A quiet macro tape ahead of the storm. The day will be dominated by the Sunday futures gap-down on Iran weekend escalation — watch for risk-off rotation that mirrors Thursday's IBM/ServiceNow drawdown. Brent at $107+ pressures airlines/transports; refiners/E&P names benefit. Volt/Salt Typhoon cyber narratives may catch a bid if Iran retaliation rhetoric escalates. Treasuries should see continued bull-steepening on the Warsh succession path.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| — | GOOG: Q1 2026 Earnings | High |
| 4:30 | Retail Trade | Medium |
| 8:15 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | Low |
| 9:00 | HPI m/m | Low |
| 9:00 | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | Low |
| 10:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | Medium |
| 10:00 | Richmond Manufacturing Index | Low |
| 16:30 | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | Low |
Tuesday is overshadowed by the Wednesday Fed decision but carries its own catalysts. CB Consumer Confidence at 10:00 AM ET will be parsed against Friday's record-low U-Mich Sentiment 49.8 — if Confidence prints similarly weak, the soft-landing narrative takes more damage. Richmond Fed Manufacturing helps gauge regional industrial momentum into ISM Friday. Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL) reports after the close: consensus EPS $2.68 on revenue ~$106.88B; the key watch is Cloud growth rate and 2026 capex guide ($175-185B vs $91.4B in 2025) — sets the tone for the megacap AI capex narrative ahead of AAPL Thursday.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 4:30 | Housing Starts | Medium |
| 8:30 | Building Permits | Low |
| 8:30 | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low |
| 8:30 | Durable Goods Orders m/m | Low |
| 8:30 | Goods Trade Balance | Low |
| 8:30 | Prelim Wholesale Inventories m/m | Low |
| 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | Low |
| 14:00 | Federal Funds Rate | High |
| 14:00 | FOMC Statement | High |
| 14:30 | FOMC Press Conference | High |
THE event of the week. Fed funds rate decision at 2:00 PM ET (97.9% hold priced); FOMC statement same time; Powell press conference 2:30 PM ET. With the decision functionally priced, every word of Powell's tone is the trade. He must defend a wait-and-see stance with Iran-driven inflation in his face, his successor (Warsh) confirmed, and the DOJ probe just closed. Risk skews dovish-disappointment — any "still patient" language could disappoint a market now pricing 38% year-end cut. Housing Starts (4:30 AM ET) and Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) provide pre-market context but will be macro noise relative to the FOMC.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| — | AAPL: Q2 FY26 Earnings | High |
| 4:30 | GDP Report | High |
| 4:30 | PCE Price Index | High |
| 4:30 | Employment Cost Index | Medium |
| 4:30 | Jobless Claims | Medium |
| 8:30 | Advance GDP q/q | High |
| 8:30 | Core PCE Price Index m/m | High |
| 8:30 | Employment Cost Index q/q | High |
| 8:30 | Advance GDP Price Index q/q | Medium |
| 8:30 | Unemployment Claims | Medium |
| 8:30 | Personal Income m/m | Low |
| 8:30 | Personal Spending m/m | Low |
| 9:45 | Chicago PMI | Low |
| 10:00 | CB Leading Index m/m | Low |
| 10:30 | Natural Gas Storage | Low |
Three stacked headline risks. Advance Q1 GDP at 8:30 AM ET (Waller's pre-blackout track was ~2.4% annualized) — print materially below 2% pressures cyclicals; above 2.5% complicates the cut narrative. Core PCE m/m at 8:30 AM ET is the Fed's preferred measure and arrives 18 hours after Powell's presser — a hot print would immediately unwind any dovish Powell tone; a cool print confirms the Warsh-cut-path. Employment Cost Index q/q is the wage-pressure tell. Apple (AAPL) Q2 FY26 earnings after-close — the iPhone cycle tape and any China commentary will move the megacap complex into Friday.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 9:45 | Final Manufacturing PMI | Low |
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | Medium |
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing Prices | Medium |
| 10:15 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | Low |
ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10:00 AM ET — first hard data after the FOMC and Core PCE; ISM Manufacturing Prices is the inflation breadcrumb. Wards Total Vehicle Sales at 10:15 AM ET. Final Manufacturing PMI at 9:45 AM ET. With FOMC blackout lifting Friday, expect the first round of Fed speakers post-meeting to reset the curve.
Mining or US-Iran naval clash. Brent $120+ revisits. Critical • tail risk live.
2Y back to 3.85%+; SPX -2 to -3% same day. The Friday Warsh repricing reverses.
Reverses entire week's dovish-Warsh repricing. 18 hours after the Powell presser — whipsaw risk.
QQQ -1 to -2% same day. iPhone cycle + China revenue are the live tells.
01_equities_sectors.md, 02_rates_credit_fed.md, 03_commodities_forex.md, 04_crypto_alternative.md) in the W17 directory.