U.S. stocks closed May at all-time records on a powerful, AI-led rally and a collapse in oil — both pricing in an end to the ~3-month U.S.–Israel–Iran war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,580.06, its ninth straight weekly gain; the Dow cleared 51,000 for the first time; Dell posted its best day ever (+34%) on $16.1B of AI-server revenue. But the 60-day ceasefire deal sits unsigned heading into Monday — Trump twice returned the text with hardened demands, Iran pushed back, and Defense Secretary Hegseth warned the U.S. is “ready to resume combat.” Monday opens on a knife-edge: a signed deal extends the risk-on tape; a collapse snaps the Hormuz risk premium back into crude and reignites the inflation fight. It is a payrolls week with no fresh inflation print.
The defining catalyst into Monday is the unresolved U.S.–Iran deal. Markets spent May pricing aggressive de-escalation — oil −17–19% on the month, equities to records, Treasuries rallied — but the 60-day MOU is not signed, and the weekend hardened, not softened, the standoff.
U.S. stocks closed May at all-time records on the back of an AI-led rally and a collapse in oil, both driven by the market pricing in an end to the ~3-month U.S.–Israel–Iran war and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. A 60-day ceasefire MOU was “mostly agreed,” crude fell ~17–19% on the month (Brent’s worst month since the 2020 Covid crash), and the mid-May inflation scare began to drain out. But the deal sits unsigned heading into Monday. Over the weekend Trump twice returned the text with hardened demands, Iran pushed back publicly, and Hegseth warned the U.S. military is “ready to resume combat.” After a real airstrike near Hormuz on 5/28 (which briefly knocked Bitcoin below $73K), Monday opens on a knife-edge.
The S&P 500 closed at a record 7,580.06, its ninth straight weekly gain (longest since 2023) and seventh straight up day; the Dow cleared 51,000 for the first time; the Nasdaq capped an +8% May. The engine was AI infrastructure: Dell posted its best day ever (+34%) on $16.1B of AI-server revenue and a $51.3B AI backlog (FY27 guide raised to $165–169B), validating the buildout, while the private-market AI IPO pipeline (SpaceX, OpenAI, Anthropic — the latter near a ~$1T valuation) heated up. But breadth is only moderate (~59% above the 200-DMA), the index RSI is overbought (~73.6), and VIX at 15.3 leaves little cushion.
Treasuries rallied (10Y 4.45%, down ~11 bps on the week) as oil fell and April core PCE cooled on a monthly basis — but the annual PCE still printed 3.8% headline / 3.3% core, the hottest in years. New Fed Chair Kevin Warsh (sworn in May 22) inherits that backdrop into his first FOMC on June 16–17, with markets having priced out essentially all 2026 cuts and a minority now flagging a hike tail — a view reinforced by strikingly hawkish April FOMC minutes (four dissents, the most since 1992). Credit shrugged everything off (IG OAS ~73 bps, HY ~272 bps — historically rich).
Leadership is large-cap growth / tech, energy (on a YTD basis), commodities, and cybersecurity; the rotation is out of small-caps, value, REITs, and non-U.S. Technology (XLK) is the clean leader — the only sector beating the S&P in May (~+10.6% MTD vs SPX ~+2.9%), with no sign of weakness as the Dell print re-validated the AI-infra buildout. Energy’s YTD crown (~+34%) is the live tension: it tops the StockCharts RRG relative-strength ranking yet is rolling into the weakening quadrant as oil collapses — a signed Iran deal would press it further. Utilities, paradoxically, were May’s biggest loser (~−4.9%) on profit-taking against the AI-power narrative, and Financials sit dead last.
Treasuries rallied this week (yields down 9–15 bps), unwinding part of the mid-May selloff as Iran de-escalation knocked oil down and April core PCE cooled month-over-month. But the regime is unmistakably hawkish: annual PCE printed 3.8% headline / 3.3% core (hottest in years), markets have priced out essentially all 2026 cuts, and a minority now flags a hike tail. New Chair Kevin Warsh (sworn in 5/22) takes his first FOMC June 16–17 — a SEP / dot-plot meeting — against April minutes showing four dissents, the most since 1992.
| Maturity | Level | Weekly Δ |
|---|---|---|
| 2-Year | ~3.98% | −15 bps |
| 5-Year | ~4.15% | −12 bps |
| 10-Year | 4.45% | −11 bps |
| 30-Year | 4.98% | −9 bps |
| 2s10s Spread | +47 bps | +4 bps • bull-steepen |
Credit shrugged everything off and is historically rich — IG OAS ~73 bps (−1) and HY OAS ~272 bps (−2) leave little cushion if hawkishness or Iran re-escalation reprices risk. Liquidity is the structural watch: the ON RRP is effectively drained (~$1–13B/day) — the QT cash buffer is exhausted, so further drains bite bank reserves — while the TGA (~$830B) is rebuilding/elevated. No money-market dysfunction despite the empty RRP.
An earlier draft figure of a “30Y at 5.19%, highest since 2007” was a stale mid-May-spike reading and has been discarded. The yields shown above (2Y 3.98% • 5Y 4.15% • 10Y 4.45% • 30Y 4.98%) are the May 29 close, verified via FRED / H.15 constant-maturity data and WebSearch. The 30Y did touch ~5.1–5.2% intraweek during the mid-May energy/CPI spike before the bull rally pulled it back.
Weekly price action and catalysts across the active thesis baskets — AI infrastructure was the week’s epicenter (Dell’s best day ever), with consolidation winners in cyber and momentum rips in quantum and critical minerals. Where exact weekly % was unavailable, monthly / YTD context is labeled. Click a thesis to filter.
Best day ever. Rev $43.84B, adj EPS $4.86, $16.1B AI-server rev, $51.3B AI backlog; FY27 guide raised to $165–169B. Confirms the AI-server supercycle.
Best week since 2008 on AI / HBM memory demand.
+~18% YTD but soft the prior week on profit-taking; no earnings catalyst in-window.
Custom-silicon thesis intact; next major AI-infra earnings catalyst (fiscal Q2, early-to-mid June).
~$422; data-center rev +57% YoY.
~$167; mid-month semis wobble (Samsung strike risk, TSMC stake-sale headlines).
~$418; one-day semis selloff mid-month, otherwise trend intact.
Jumped on Dell read-through (AI-factory partnership validation); −~24% YTD on valuation.
Cratered on soft FY guidance (16–17% vs ~19.5% consensus) despite a solid Q3 (+25% rev / ARR).
Off in sympathy with ZS, but the Street framed the miss as company-specific; cyber stayed a favored flow destination.
Slipped in sympathy. Fiscal Q1 typically early June — the confirmation read after the ZS scare.
Reaffirmed 20-yr Meta / Clinton PPA (1.1 GWe, 2027–2047). AI-power narrative intact.
Reaffirmed 2026 adj. EBITDA $6.8–7.6B on hyperscaler demand.
Uranium ~$85–86.5/lb (near a 2-month high) underpins the spot-leverage trade.
+~12% earlier in May on the NRC Aurora approval (5/6); consolidating the pop.
Popped on the OKLO / NRC Aurora read-through for small modular reactors.
+~9% Thu; the relative-strength leader of the group into the SpaceX IPO.
Record ~$2.2B backlog; Neutron debut later in 2026.
RPO +361% to ~$672M on defense contracts; rotation/profit-taking ahead of SpaceX.
Ripped on the federal funding news. ⚠️ P/S >100 — valuations extreme.
Same funding-day rip. Motley Fool “$931M warning” on valuations.
Catalyst: US plan for ~$2B quantum funding + equity stakes.
Strong Q1; DOD $110/kg NdPr floor; magnet sales H2 2026. Rare earths center-stage post Trump-Xi summit (5/14–15).
Lithium carbonate hit a ~3-year high (Zimbabwe export ban + strong China NEV demand) — “lithium winter” over.
Doubled earlier in May on a fiscal-Q2 beat + upgrades; trading ~$18.
Optimus buildout; ~$2.1B Samsung battery deal.
Solid-state PowerCo / VW collaboration continues.
$22.7B backlog, Q2 FY26 rev +23% to ~$676M, 70 systems deployed — the “actually-shipping-revenue” standout.
Durable platform but a relative laggard within the group.
WTI ~$87.3/bbl Fri (−1.73% day), ~−16% May. Brent ~$93 (range ~$92.5 CNBC futures close / $94.44 Fortune 9am spot), −17–19% in May — worst month since the 2020 Covid crash, now ~−20% off 2026 peaks. The driver is the prospective Hormuz reopening (supply recovery would be gradual).
Gold ~$4,541/oz Fri (+~0.9% day) but ~−0.8% on the month — a notable case of safe-haven demand fading despite an active war (down >10% since the war’s late-Feb onset; ATH ~$5,602 in late Jan 2026). Silver ~$76.4 (+~3% month) is outperforming; copper ~$6.40/lb logged a 2nd straight monthly gain on AI / data-center demand.
Bitcoin ~$73,800 (Fri 5/29 close ~$73.1–73.6K). Fell to ~$72,978 on 5/28 on the Iran airstrikes (~$959M liquidations, 93% longs), bounced toward $74K on truce hopes, and stabilized into the weekend — ~−4.4% MTD; ~30% below the Oct-2025 ATH ($126,198). BTC dominance ~60% (rising — capital rotating from alts into BTC).
Ethereum ~$2,000–2,025 sits right on psychological support after losing $2,000 on 5/28; ETH/BTC ~0.0272 grinding lower. Bearish trigger: a weekly close <$1,850 opens $1,560 risk.
Altcoins: SOL ~$81–83, XRP ~$1.27–1.34 (a relative outperformer; +~$35M ETF inflows), AVAX ~$9, LINK ~$8.9. XLM +33–50% on DTCC tokenization news — the week’s standout. ETF flows: spot BTC ETFs −~$1.42B over 10 straight sessions (longest since 2024); IBIT −$527.8M on 5/27; BTC+ETH funds shed ~$2B (5/20–5/29).
The overarching swing factor all week is the Iran deal’s signed / not-signed status and its read-through to oil and inflation expectations. On the data side it is all about labor — JOLTS (Tue), ADP + ISM Services (Wed), and Friday’s jobs report are the only major catalysts, with no fresh inflation print to reset the 3.8% PCE before the June 16–17 FOMC.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 20:30 | FOMC Member Powell Speaks | Medium |
| 6:00 | Construction Spending | Low |
| 9:45 | Final Manufacturing PMI | Low |
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing PMI | High |
| 10:00 | ISM Manufacturing Prices | Medium |
| 10:00 | Construction Spending m/m | Low |
The week opens with ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 ET) as the marquee data point — and after a month of Hormuz-driven energy spikes, the prices-paid sub-index is the line to watch for whether the oil shock is bleeding into goods inflation. A Fed speaker is on the tape in the evening (the calendar lists Powell at 20:30 ET; note that leadership formally passed to Chair Warsh on May 22, so this is a Board-member appearance, not the Chair). But the real driver into the cash open is the weekend’s unresolved Iran MOU: futures are flat, and the gap risk is binary on any signing headline.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 1:50 | FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks | Low |
| 8:30 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | Low |
| 10:00 | JOLTS Job Openings | Medium |
| 10:10 | RCM/TIPP Economic Optimism | Low |
| 10:15 | Wards Total Vehicle Sales | Low |
| 16:30 | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | Low |
JOLTS job openings (10:00 ET) is the first read in a labor-heavy week — a soft openings number would reinforce the cooling-demand narrative ahead of Friday’s payrolls, while a sticky print keeps the “no-cuts” Fed pricing intact. Two Fed speakers (Kashkari, Hammack) and vehicle sales add color but shouldn’t move the tape. Watch energy-sensitive names for follow-through on whatever the Iran headlines deliver overnight.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 4:15 | ADP Employment | Medium |
| 8:15 | ADP Non-Farm Employment Change | High |
| 9:00 | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | Low |
| 9:45 | Final Services PMI | Low |
| 10:00 | ISM Services PMI | High |
| 10:00 | Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks | Medium |
| 10:00 | Factory Orders m/m | Low |
| 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | Low |
| 14:00 | Beige Book | Low |
| 15:00 | FOMC Member Logan Speaks | Low |
The data heavyweight of the week before Friday. ADP private payrolls (8:15 ET) and ISM Services PMI (10:00 ET) land together — ISM Services prices is arguably the more important inflation tell, given services is where stickiness lives, and a hot reading would harden the hawkish case into the June 16–17 FOMC. Treasury Secretary Bessent speaks (10:00), the Beige Book lands (14:00), Dallas Fed’s Logan (a hawkish April dissenter) speaks (15:00), and crude inventories print. A genuine catalyst cluster.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 4:30 | Jobless Claims | Medium |
| 5:30 | Challenger Job Cuts y/y | Low |
| 8:30 | Unemployment Claims | Medium |
| 8:30 | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | Low |
| 8:30 | Revised Nonfarm Productivity q/q | Low |
| 8:30 | Revised Unit Labor Costs q/q | Low |
| 10:30 | Natural Gas Storage | Low |
| 13:10 | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | Low |
A quieter, pre-payrolls session: jobless claims, Challenger job cuts, and revised productivity / unit-labor-costs (the ULC revision matters at the margin for the inflation-from-wages story). Fed’s Barkin and Daly speak. Most desks will be positioning for Friday rather than trading the Thursday tape — watch claims for any crack in the labor market and natural-gas storage for energy follow-through.
| Time (ET) | Event | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 4:30 | Jobs Report (NFP) | High |
| 8:30 | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | High |
| 8:30 | Non-Farm Employment Change | High |
| 8:30 | Unemployment Rate | High |
| 15:00 | Consumer Credit m/m | Low |
The marquee event: the May jobs report (8:30 ET) — nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate, and average hourly earnings. This is the first major labor read of the Warsh era, and with markets pricing roughly zero 2026 cuts and a live hike tail, the asymmetry is sharp: a hot print (strong jobs + firm AHE) on top of 3.8% PCE could pull forward hike fears and pressure the front end, while a soft print tests the soft-landing thesis and revives some cut hopes. Given there is no fresh inflation print this week, payrolls carries outsized weight for the June 17 dot plot. Consumer Credit (15:00) is a footnote.
The marquee AI / software earnings already hit this past week (Dell’s blowout, Snowflake’s beat, Zscaler’s guidance miss), so the week ahead is comparatively light on mega-cap reports — the focus shifts to macro / labor data. The key forward catalyst for the AI-infrastructure thesis is Broadcom (AVGO), whose fiscal-Q2 report (typically early-to-mid June) is the next big custom-silicon read-through; CrowdStrike (CRWD) also customarily reports in early June and will be watched closely after the Zscaler scare. (Exact report dates were not confirmed in-window — treat as “on watch,” not scheduled.)
Per the verified economic calendar, these major releases are NOT scheduled this week:
No inflation reset before the Fed meets — which is exactly why Friday’s payrolls carries the week.
Size risk for a two-sided oil gap Monday. Signed → crude lower (Iranian barrels + unconstrained UAE), inflation relief, supportive for duration / long-multiple growth, headwind for energy producers. Collapse / strikes → Hormuz premium snaps back into oil, the “Fed-on-hold-or-hiking” thesis reasserts, bid for energy / defense.
~No 2026 cuts priced, a live hike tail, hawkish April minutes (four dissents), and a wildcard Warsh Fed. Credit is benign (IG 73 / HY 272) but offers little cushion if hawkishness or Iran re-escalation reprices risk.
Records + RSI ~73.6 + VIX 15.3 + moderate breadth (~59% > 200-DMA) = priced for good news. Respect the trend but expect air pockets; Friday’s NFP is the catalyst with no inflation reset to cushion it.
The ON RRP is effectively drained (~$1–13B/day) — the QT cash buffer is exhausted, so further drains bite bank reserves. No money-market dysfunction yet, but this is the structural watch (TGA ~$830B, rebuilding).
IONQ / RGTI / QBTS ripped on the ~$2B federal funding plan, but P/S >100 (Motley Fool “$931M warning”) — a place to trim into strength, not chase.
BTC ~$73.8K with ~$1.4B in 10-session ETF outflows argues for tactical caution — even as record stablecoin supply (~$322B) and regulatory wins are structurally constructive. BTC dominance ~60% favors majors over alts.