Monday, February 9, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

Morning Brief

Delayed NFP Tuesday, CPI Thursday, ANET/CSCO/AMAT earnings, NXE CNSC hearing, Google/Wiz EU decision. Dow 50K milestone. Crypto crash deepens. Tech-to-value rotation accelerates.

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Pre-Market Snapshot

Feb 6 Close
S&P 500
6,939
Futures -0.19%
Consolidating Fri +1.97%
Nasdaq 100
25,075
Futures -0.35%
Weekly -1.8%, tech rotation
Dow Jones
50,146
Futures -0.12%
Historic 50K close Fri
Russell 2000
2,674
Futures -0.16%
Value rotation beneficiary
10Y Yield
4.22%
+4 bps Fri
Range 4.15%-4.30%
2Y Yield
3.50%
Steady
2 cuts priced in 2026
DXY
97.52
-0.11%
Downtrend from 108+
WTI Crude
$63.00
-0.5%
Iran talks ease premium
Gold
$5,024
+1.27%
Above $5K, ATH $5,608
Bitcoin
$65,411
-7.1% weekend
Crash from $108K peak
Ethereum
$1,916
-8.4%
Broke $2,000 support
2s10s Spread
+72 bps
Positive slope
Curve normalized

Dow closed above 50,000 for the first time Friday (+1,200 pts). Massive tech-to-value rotation: Dow +2.5% vs Nasdaq -1.8% on the week.

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Overnight / Global

Asia Session

Nikkei +0.8% to ~54,250 recovering from tech rout. KOSPI plunged 3.86% Thursday on semiconductor selloff (Samsung -5.8%, SK Hynix -6.4%). Hang Seng -1.1% as China stimulus hopes fade. Volumes thin on Lunar New Year.

Europe Session

Euro Stoxx 50 +0.47% on Monday open. FTSE 100 steady above 10K milestone. DAX +0.5% led by defense/industrials. EU suspended retaliatory tariffs for 6 months after softened US trade position. Defense stocks benefit from NATO 3.5% GDP spending trajectory.

Weekend Headlines

Crypto crash deepens — BTC below $66K, $410B erased. US-India trade deal cuts tariffs to 18%. EU tariff suspension. Amazon $200B capex shock. Government shutdown delays NFP to Tuesday.

Weekend News Digest

#1

Crypto Crash Deepens

BTC crashed below $66K, extending decline from $108K peak. ETH broke $2K for first time since mid-2024. $410B market cap erased. Leveraged liquidations cascading.

#2

US-India Trade Deal

Tariffs cut to 18% from 50% in exchange for India halting Russian oil purchases. Dollar-negative, improves global trade sentiment.

#3

EU Tariff Suspension

EU suspended retaliatory tariffs (10-30% on US goods) for six months. Removes near-term tail risk for European exporters.

#4

Amazon Capex Shock

~$200B 2026 capex flagged for AI/cloud, well above expectations. AMZN -9.3%. Hyperscaler AI spend at $650B combined. Bullish for NVDA, AVGO, VRT.

#5

NFP Delayed to Tuesday

Government shutdown forced BLS to delay January jobs report from Feb 6 to Feb 11. JOLTS also postponed. Compressed NFP Tue + CPI Thu calendar.

#6

Dow 50,000 Milestone

Dow closed above 50K for the first time after rallying 1,200+ pts Friday (+2.47%). Value and cyclical stocks led the massive rotation from tech.

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Today's Calendar

Light Monday
Time (ET)ReleaseConsensusPriorSignificance
11:30 AMFed Board Closed MeetingN/AN/ALow
Monday is a positioning day. The data wall hits Tuesday-Thursday:
Tue 2/11 8:30 AM: January NFP (delayed by shutdown) — consensus +60K, unemployment 4.4%
Tue 2/11: Avg Hourly Earnings — +0.3% m/m, 3.6% y/y (prior 3.8%)
Wed 2/12: JOLTS (Dec) — ~7.5M, also delayed
Thu 2/13 8:30 AM: January CPI — +0.3% m/m, ~2.7% y/y; Core +0.3% m/m
Fri 2/14: Retail Sales (Jan)

Fed: VP Jefferson speech on “Supply-Side Factors and Inflation” (Brookings, date TBD this week). Markets pricing 2 additional 25bp cuts in 2026.
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Thesis Watchlist

9 Sectors

Pre-Market Movers

TickerSectorLast CloseMoveCatalyst
NVDAAI Infra$184.86+7.6% FriAI capex cycle confidence, $650B hyperscaler spend
AVGOAI Infra$333.66+7.5% FriCustom silicon momentum, AI rev doubling
IONQQuantum$35.42+14% FriRosenblatt Buy reaffirmation
KTOSDefense$88+20% YTDCCA/drone demand, S&P 600 inclusion
LMTDefense$623.58+2.4%Double-digit MFC growth guide, near ATH
NXENuclear+99% volCNSC Rook I hearing starts TODAY
FLNCStorage$19.44-34.6%Earnings miss, unexpected quarterly loss
ALBMinerals~$160-5-7%Lithium price slip to 134,500 CNY/T
RKLBSpace$72.32From $96 ATHNeutron tank test setback, earnings Feb 26
LEUNuclear$281.70-4.9%+523% YTD, profit-taking

Key Technical Levels — Tier 1

TickerSectorLastSupportResistance52W HiSignal
NVDAAI$184.86$170$195$195Bullish, near highs
TSMAI$348.85$330$360$360Bullish trend
AVGOAI$333.66$310$350$350Bullish, near highs
PANWCyber$177$160$200$200Bullish
LMTDefense$623$600$640$640Bullish
NOCDefense$709$680$730$730Near ATH
CEGNuclear$287$250$330$350Pullback from highs
CCJNuclear$114$105$130$130Bullish
ANETAI~$95$85$100$115Neutral pre-earnings
ISRGRobotics$488$470$510$530Bullish
FLNCStorage$19.44$15$22$30Bearish post-miss

Earnings This Week — Watchlist

DateTickerThesisTierConsensusWhat to Watch
Wed 2/11CSCOAI InfraIndirect$1.02 EPS, $15.1B revAI infra orders ~$3B FY from hyperscalers, new ATH
Thu 2/12ANETAI InfraT1$0.75 EPS, $2.37B rev800G port growth, AI Center rev. Beaten 4 straight Qs. Melius Buy $200 PT
Thu 2/12AMATSemisAdjacent$2.21 EPS, $6.88B revSemi equipment demand signal for AI chip buildout
Coming up: IONQ earnings Feb 25 (validates $106-110M FY guidance) • RKLB earnings Feb 26 (critical Neutron timeline update)

Sector Themes

Defense — Security Supercycle

LMT, RTX, NOC, LHX all near 52-week highs. NATO rearmament + Golden Dome + munitions replenishment driving structural demand. Narrative shifted from cyclical to structural in 2026.

Nuclear — NXE Hearing Today

CNSC Part 2 begins in Saskatoon for Rook I uranium mine — the world's largest undeveloped high-grade deposit (30M lbs/yr). Hearings run Feb 9-12. Volume surged 99% Friday.

Cybersecurity — Google/Wiz Tomorrow

EU antitrust Phase I decision on $32B Wiz deal. Expected to clear. Validates CNAPP at 45-65x ARR. Removes independent competitor — benefits CRWD, PANW.

Approaching Catalysts

DateCatalystTickersPriority
Feb 9-12NexGen CNSC Rook I hearing Part 2NXECritical
Feb 10Google/Wiz EU antitrust Phase I deadlineGOOG, CRWD, PANWHigh
Feb 11January NFP (delayed by shutdown)Broad marketCritical
Feb 11Cisco Q2 FY2026 earningsCSCOHigh
Feb 12Arista Networks Q4 2025 earningsANETCritical
Feb 12Applied Materials Q1 FY2026 earningsAMATHigh
Feb 13January CPI (delayed)Broad marketCritical
Feb 25IonQ Q4 2025 earningsIONQHigh
Feb 26Rocket Lab Q4 2025 earningsRKLBCritical
Q1 2026AMD MI400 launchAMDHigh
Q2 2026Grasberg phased restartFCXHigh
H2 2026L3Harris Missile Solutions IPOLHXMedium
Nov 2026CMMC Phase 2 enforcement220K+ contractorsHigh
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Scenario Analysis

Heavy Week

NFP Tuesday — Three Scenarios

Hot (+80K+)
Strong jobs + sticky wages
10Y breaks 4.30%, Nasdaq tests 24,500. Dollar rebounds toward DXY 99
Fed cut expectations reprice to 1 cut in 2026. Defense/value outperform
Soft (<40K)
Weak hiring, wages cooling
10Y falls toward 4.00%, growth/tech rallies. DXY tests 96.50
Fed cut expectations expand to 3+. NVDA, AVGO, ANET lead
Goldilocks (~60K)
In-line, no surprises
Range-bound. Earnings become primary driver
Stock-specific catalysts dominate. ANET/CSCO/AMAT key

CPI Thursday — Two Scenarios

Benign (≤0.2% m/m)
Core CPI decelerating
Rally: validates disinflation narrative. Growth names lead
Rate cuts accelerated, AI infrastructure benefits
Sticky (≥0.4% m/m)
Inflation reaccelerating
Selloff: 10Y back toward 4.30%+. Tech/growth under pressure
Challenges entire 2026 easing narrative. Defense outperforms
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Today's Playbook

Bias: Cautiously Defensive — Consolidating after Friday's rally. Pre-positioning for NFP/CPI double-header dominates. Expect range-bound action Monday.

Watch For

  • NXE CNSC hearing developments — live catalyst starting today, 99% volume surge Friday signals heavy positioning
  • Google/Wiz EU decision (tomorrow) — clearance = cybersecurity sector catalyst for CRWD, PANW
  • Crypto stabilization — BTC at $65K is key level; failure to hold could cascade to broader risk-off
  • Defense sector momentum — LMT, RTX, NOC near ATH; Security Supercycle narrative intact
  • ANET pre-earnings positioning — Thursday's report is the marquee watchlist event this week
  • Lithium watch — ALB, SQM weak on China spot; recovery thesis faces near-term headwinds

Risks to Manage

  • Compressed data calendar (NFP Tue + CPI Thu) creates binary event risk in both directions
  • Crypto crash could spill into broader risk-off if BTC breaks $60K support
  • Amazon capex shock (-9.3%) may weigh on mega-cap tech sentiment
  • Government shutdown data delays create uncertainty around revisions and seasonal adjustments
  • Tech-to-value rotation could accelerate if Tuesday's jobs data runs hot
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Sources