Monday, February 10, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

Morning Brief

NFP Tuesday, CPI Thursday, three watchlist earnings this week, NexGen CNSC hearing begins today. Data-heavy week after government shutdown delays.

📊

Pre-Market Snapshot

Feb 7 Close
S&P 500
5,649
Futures +0.3%
Positive handoff
Nasdaq
23,031
Futures +0.2%
Recovering -1.8% weekly
Dow Jones
50,116
Futures +0.2%
Historic 50K close Fri
Russell 2000
~2,870
Futures flat
+7% YTD, leading 2026
10Y Yield
4.21%
Flat
Awaiting NFP Tuesday
DXY
97.7
Stable
Multi-month downtrend
WTI Crude
$63.70
Stable
Iran tension floor
Gold
$4,964
Near $5K resistance
Risk-off vs Warsh hawk
Bitcoin
$68,700
$68-70K weekend
Holding post -15% crash
Ethereum
$2,060
$2,000-2,200 range
-23% WoW, lagging BTC
🌏

Overnight / Global

Asia (Friday close)

Nikkei +0.8% to 54,254 on yen weakness. Hang Seng -1.1% (property/tech drag). Monday should get positive handoff from strong US Friday.

Europe (Friday close)

Stoxx 600 +0.9% to 617. Euro Stoxx 50 +1.2%. Stellantis -24% on $26B restructuring. Monday expected firmer.

Weekend

No major geopolitical escalation. Iran risk elevated but stable (Polymarket: 25% Feb strike, 39% by Mar 31). Trump signed EO imposing tariffs on countries buying from Iran.

📅

Today's Calendar

Low Impact Monday
Time (ET)ReleaseConsensusPriorSignificance
8:30 AMDecember Retail SalesTBDTBDMedium
10:00 AMNovember Factory OrdersTBDTBDLow
Monday is a warm-up session. The real data drops:
Tue 2/11 8:30 AM: January NFP (delayed by shutdown) — consensus +60K. Carries annual benchmark revisions.
Thu 2/13 8:30 AM: January CPI (delayed) — inflation trajectory critical for rate path.

No confirmed Fed speakers Monday.
📋

Thesis Watchlist

This Week

Earnings This Week

DateTickerThesisTierConsensusWhat to Watch
Tue 2/11VRTAI InfraT1~$1.23 EPS, $2.88B revBacklog growth, book-to-bill, power/cooling demand
Thu 2/12ANETAI InfraT1$0.76 EPS, ~$2.4B revAI campus revenue, 800G commentary. Piper Sandler upgrade
Thu 2/13CCJNuclearT1TBDContract price escalation, McArthur production discipline

Tier 1 Key Levels

TickerLastSupportResistanceSetup
NVDA~$185$167-172$207Oversold near support. BofA: selloff "indiscriminate." Earnings Feb 25
TSM~$349$330$332 (breached)Broke out. RSI 76.9 overbought. Watch for pullback
AVGO~$333$278$412+7.2% Friday. AI rev on track for 50% of total by FY-end
VRT~$186$145-150$200Reports tomorrow. Guided $2.81-2.89B Q4 rev
CEG~$247$317-324$345-360-14% on Calpine DOJ/FERC conditions. Reports Feb 19
CCJ~$48-52Recent lowsReports Thursday. Uranium spot pulled back to $85 from $101

Pre-Market Movers (Last Week)

TickerWeekly ΔCatalyst
PLTR+8%Blowout Q4: $1.41B rev (+70%), FY26 guide crushed estimates
SMCI+15%Record $12.7B rev (+123%), raised FY guide to $40B+
MRVL+8.2% FriCustom silicon rally
NVDA+7.8% FriLed Friday chip dip-buy
CEG-14%Calpine deal: DOJ/FERC requiring divestitures
AMD-5%Beat on Q4 but Q1 guide disappointed

Approaching Catalysts

DateCatalystTickersPriority
Feb 9-12NexGen CNSC Rook I hearing Part 2NXEHigh
Feb 11January NFP (delayed)Broad marketCritical
Feb 13January CPI (delayed)Broad marketCritical
Feb 19CEG Q4 earningsCEGHigh
Feb 25NVDA Q4 earningsNVDACritical
Feb 26MRVL, RKLB, VST earningsMRVL, RKLB, VSTHigh
Feb-MarPalisades nuclear restartNuclear sectorMedium
Mar 6-9Artemis II launch (NET)LUNR, RKLBMedium
🎯

Scenario Analysis

Heavy Week

NFP Tuesday — Three Scenarios

Soft
<40K jobs
Risk-off initially, then rally on rate cut acceleration
June cut locked in, May becomes live
Goldilocks
50-80K jobs
Mildly positive, confirms soft landing
June remains base case for first cut
Hot
>100K jobs
Hawkish repricing, yields up, equities mixed
June cut probability drops, pushed to Sept

CPI Thursday — Two Scenarios

Disinflation Resumes
Core CPI <0.2% MoM
Rally: validates Jefferson's "stalled but temporary" framing
Rate cuts accelerated
Sticky Inflation
Core CPI >0.3% MoM
Selloff: challenges the entire 2026 easing narrative
10Y back toward 4.30%+
📝

Today's Playbook

Bias: Cautiously bullish into Tuesday's NFP. Friday's momentum carries over. Monday's data is low-impact.

Watch For

  • NexGen CNSC hearing opens today in Saskatoon — any early signals on regulatory sentiment
  • Weekend crypto stability — BTC holding $65-70K range would confirm Thursday was the flush
  • Iran developments — Polymarket odds, diplomatic signals from Oman talks
  • Pre-market activity in VRT/ANET ahead of Tuesday/Thursday reports

Risk to Manage

  • Don't chase Friday's rally too aggressively ahead of NFP/CPI wall
  • CEG dip may be opportunity but wait for Feb 19 earnings clarity on Calpine
  • BTC bounce fragile — funding rates still positive, more longs to liquidate if $65K breaks
🔗

Sources