Tuesday, February 10, 2026
LIGHT EVENT LOAD

Morning Brief

Positioning day ahead of Wednesday’s delayed January jobs report. LEU earnings after close. Google/Wiz EU verdict expected. NXE CNSC hearing Day 2. Nikkei hits record. Gold above $5K.

📊

Pre-Market Snapshot

Feb 10 Pre-Market
S&P 500
6,991
Futures +0.11%
Consolidating near record
Nasdaq 100
25,365
Futures +0.04%
Tech flat, positioning
Dow Jones
50,249
Futures +0.06%
Holding above 50K
Russell 2000
2,688
Futures +0.38%
Small-cap risk-on
10Y Yield
4.22%
Steady
Range 4.15%-4.30%
2Y Yield
3.50%
Steady
2 cuts priced in 2026
DXY
96.84
-0.03%
-10.3% over 12 months
WTI Crude
$64.17
+0.97%
Range-bound
Gold
$5,070
+2.0%
Above $5K, safe-haven bid
Silver
$82.65
+5.0%
Sharp rebound
Bitcoin
$69,093
-3.1%
Selloff from ~$127K ATH
2s10s Spread
+72 bps
Positive slope
Curve normalized

Nikkei hit record 57,650 (+2.28%) on Takaichi election win. SoftBank +10.7%. Gold above $5K. Crypto selloff continues — BTC at $69K, worst drawdown since FTX.

🌏

Overnight / Global

Asia Session

Nikkei surged to all-time high of 57,650 (+2.28%) on the “Takaichi trade” after PM Sanae Takaichi’s landslide Lower House victory. Topix also hit record. SoftBank spiked +10.7% on upgraded forecasts — positive read-through for AI infra and robotics thesis. Hang Seng +0.58%. Shanghai flat. India opened green.

Europe Session

DAX ~+1.2% at Monday’s close, STOXX 600 ~+0.7%, FTSE 100 ~+0.2%. European defense stocks remain bid on NATO 3.5% GDP rearmament trajectory. EUR/USD at 1.19 reflecting sustained dollar weakness. EU markets positioned ahead of earnings and economic data.

Macro Backdrop

Dollar weakness persists (DXY 96.84, -10.3% YoY). Gold above $5K on safe-haven demand and weaker real yields. Crypto crash continues — BTC at $69K. NFIB small business uncertainty sub-index surged 7 pts to 91 on tariff/policy concerns. Natural gas plunged 8.2% on warmer forecasts.

📅

Today's Calendar

Light Tuesday
Time (ET)ReleaseActualConsensusSignificance
6:00 AMNFIB Small Business Optimism (Jan)99.399.8Low
After CloseCentrus Energy (LEU) Q4 Earnings$1.55 EPSHigh
Today is a positioning day. The data cluster hits Wednesday:
Today 2/10: December Retail Sales (delayed from Jan 15 — released today)
Wed 2/11: Delayed January Jobs Report + MCD earnings (BMO)
Wed 2/11: VRT Q4 earnings (BMO) — Tier 1 AI Infra, data center power demand bellwether
Wed 2/11: CSCO earnings (after close)
Thu 2/12: KO, COIN earnings
Feb 17: PANW Q2 FY2026 earnings — Tier 1 Cybersecurity

Fed: Bowman speaking at KBW conference (10:15 AM, supervision/regulation). Next FOMC March 17-18. DOJ/Powell investigation creating political noise. Markets pricing 2 additional 25bp cuts in 2026.
📋

Thesis Watchlist

9 Sectors

Pre-Market Movers

TickerSectorPriceMoveCatalyst
VRTAI Infra$203.51New ATH $208Earnings TOMORROW — AI power demand bellwether
LMTDefense$637.89+2.3%Near ATH; PAC-3/THAAD ramp, $194B backlog
NOCDefense$709.11+1.8%B-21 + Golden Dome + SDA contracts
LHXDefense$349.66+2.2%Highest-margin prime; Missile Solutions IPO H2
NVDAAI Infra$191.73+3.4% prevNearing $207 resistance; earnings Feb 26
LEUNuclear$263.47+140% 52-wkREPORTING TODAY (AMC) — implied +/-15% move
CEGNuclear$272.15-34% from hiPullback from $413; Palisades NRC meetings this week
PLSpace$23.51Breakout$734M backlog (+216%); defense EO inflection
ANETAI Infra$131.84-19% from hiData center capex anxiety; potential entry
FCXMinerals$63.37Near ATHCopper deficit thesis; Grasberg restart Q2

Key Technical Levels — Tier 1

TickerSectorLastSupportResistance52W HiSignal
NVDAAI$191.73$180$207$207Bullish, nearing resistance
VRTAI$203.51$180$208 ATH$208Breakout — earnings pivotal
LMTDefense$637.89$600$660$660Bullish, approaching resistance
CEGNuclear$272.15$261$300$413-34% pullback; building base?
LEUNuclear$263.47$220$300$300+140% 52-wk; binary earnings
PANWCyber$190.71$180$200$210Consolidating; Feb 17 earnings
PLSpace$23.51$21.65$28.78$28.78Backlog-driven breakout
ANETAI$131.84$120$160$165-19% from highs; oversold?
FCXMinerals$63.37$60.50$65.13$65.13Near ATH; copper deficit
SYMRobotics$62.65$58.50$70$70Strong uptrend; +150% in 2025

Earnings — Watchlist

DateTickerThesisTierConsensusWhat to Watch
Today AMCLEUNuclearT1$1.55 EPSHALEU production scale, DOE $900M expansion timeline, enrichment capacity
Wed 2/11VRTAI InfraT1TBD$9.5B backlog update, book-to-bill, AI data center demand commentary
Coming up: PANW earnings Feb 17 (CyberArk integration, NGS ARR) • IONQ earnings Feb 25 (validates $106-110M FY guidance) • NVDA earnings Feb 26 • RKLB earnings Feb 26

Sector Themes

Defense — Supercycle Strength

LMT +2.3%, NOC +1.8%, LHX +2.2% — all near 52-week highs. RTX announced five landmark missile framework agreements Feb 4 (Tomahawk >1K/yr, AMRAAM >1.9K/yr). Security supercycle narrative strengthening.

Nuclear — LEU & NXE Catalysts

LEU earnings today (AMC) — only Western HALEU producer, $900M DOE expansion. NXE CNSC Rook I hearing Day 2 (largest new uranium mine). Palisades NRC meetings this week on steam generator repairs.

Cyber — Google/Wiz Verdict

EU Commission Phase I deadline today on Google’s $32B Wiz acquisition. Approval validates CNAPP at 45-65x ARR, removes independent competitor, benefits PANW, CRWD, ZS. QuantumScape Eagle Line inaugurated Feb 4.

Unusual Options Activity

TickerActivityDetail
FROG6x daily volumeCall buying on March $60 strike. Tier 2 Cyber (supply chain security).
LEUElevated pre-earningsImplied move +/-14.9% ($39.30) for after-close report.
VRTBuilding pre-earningsAt new ATH; expect IV expansion into tomorrow.

Approaching Catalysts

DateCatalystTickersPriority
Feb 9-12NexGen CNSC Rook I hearing Part 2NXE, CCJCritical
Feb 10LEU Q4 earnings (after close)LEUHigh
Feb 10Google/Wiz EU antitrust Phase I deadlineGOOG, PANW, CRWD, ZSHigh
Feb 10-11Palisades NRC meetings this weekCEG, VSTMedium
Feb 11VRT Q4 earnings + Delayed Jan jobs reportVRT, ETNCritical
Feb 17PANW Q2 FY2026 earningsPANWHigh
Feb 25IonQ Q4/FY2025 earningsIONQHigh
Feb 26NVDA + RKLB earningsNVDA, RKLBCritical
Mar 6-11Artemis II launch windowLUNR, RKLB, LMT, PLHigh
Mar 27NRC Part 53 final ruleNuclear sectorMedium
Q1 2026TerraPower construction permit (expected)Nuclear sectorHigh
📝

Today's Playbook

Bias: Neutral — Positioning Day. Light calendar means the market drifts. Real catalysts arrive Wednesday. Today’s focus: LEU after close, Google/Wiz verdict, NXE hearing developments.

Watch For

  • LEU earnings after close — HALEU production commentary sets tone for nuclear fuel thesis (CEG, CCJ, NXE all trade off this)
  • Google/Wiz EU clearance — approval validates CNAPP and benefits PANW, CRWD, ZS
  • NXE CNSC hearing Day 2 — positive signals bullish for uranium sector (CCJ, URA, UEC)
  • VRT pre-positioning ahead of tomorrow’s earnings — at new ATH = high expectations baked in
  • Defense sector strength — LMT, NOC, LHX all up 1.8-2.3%; security supercycle intact
  • Gold above $5K — supports metals sentiment broadly; tailwind for MP, FCX, ALB

Risks to Manage

  • Wednesday’s delayed jobs report is the week’s true catalyst — positioning may be cautious today
  • Crypto selloff (BTC $69K) reflects broader risk appetite caution; 7 of last 8 sessions down
  • VRT at ATH ahead of earnings — any miss triggers sharp reversal (Snap-cell from $54 52-wk low)
  • Dollar weakness (DXY 97) is good for commodities/international but signals US growth concerns
  • NFIB uncertainty surge to 91 reflects tariff/policy headwinds on small business
  • Natural gas plunge (-8.2%) on warmer forecasts may pressure energy names near-term
🔗

Sources