NFP shocked +130K (vs +55K). VRT blowout: orders +252%, $15B backlog. Powell House testimony Day 2. Rate cuts pushed to July. Software sold off −3.5%. Gold above $5K. Crypto crashing. ALB & CSCO after close.
NFP +130K shocked to the upside. Yields spiked, software cratered −3.5%. Gold $5,061 at record. BTC −47% from ATH. Striking divergence: gold at all-time highs while crypto crashes.
Japan closed for National Foundation Day (Nikkei at record 57,651 from Tuesday’s +2.3% “Takaichi trade”). Hang Seng +0.3%, Shanghai +0.3% — shrugged off China CPI miss (+0.2% vs +0.4% est). Kospi +1.0%, ASX +1.5%, Taiwan +1.7% on semiconductor strength. China deflation persists but stimulus expectations provide a floor.
STOXX 600 ~621 at/near record (+0.7%). DAX +1.2% at 25,015 — defense spending and industrial strength leading. CAC +0.6% despite Dassault Systèmes −19% (profit miss). FTSE +0.2%. Siemens Energy +5% (net profit nearly tripled). Heineken +3% on higher FY25 profits.
January NFP +130K (vs +55K consensus) reshapes the rate landscape. Money markets now price next cut in July (was June). Equities initially surged then reversed as yields spiked. Dollar weak but firming post-jobs. Gold $5,061 on central bank buying + geopolitical demand. Crypto crash extends — BTC $66K, ETH $1,950.
| Time (ET) | Release | Actual | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | January Nonfarm Payrolls | +130,000 | +55,000 | +48,000 (rev) | Massive Beat |
| 8:30 AM | Unemployment Rate | 4.3% | 4.4% | 4.4% | Ticked Down |
| 8:30 AM | Average Hourly Earnings | — | +0.3% MoM | +0.3% | Wage Watch |
| Released | China CPI (Jan) | +0.2% YoY | +0.4% | +0.8% | Deflation |
| Released | China PPI (Jan) | −1.4% YoY | −1.5% | −1.9% | Slightly Better |
| Speaker | Event | Key Focus |
|---|---|---|
| Chair Powell | House Financial Services (Humphrey-Hawkins Day 2) | Will be pressed on jobs surprise; “no urgency to cut” stance reinforced |
| Vice Chair Bowman | Scheduled today | Monetary policy |
| Gov. Waller | GIC Dollar Summit | Economic outlook / dollar |
| Vice Chair Jefferson | Scheduled today | TBD |
| Gov. Cook | Scheduled today | TBD |
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | AI Infra | ~$229 | +15–23% | BLOWOUT Q4: Orders +252% YoY, backlog $15B, EPS at high end |
| NET | Cyber | — | +7% | Q4 beat + FY26 guide $2.79–2.80B vs $2.74B. SASE/cloud validated. |
| GFS | Semis | — | Beat | EPS $0.55 vs $0.44 (+25%); $500M buyback + AI/SiPh/GaN acquisitions |
| TSM | AI Semis | ~$362 | +1.8% | Modest strength on AI chip demand narrative |
| NVDA | AI Semis | ~$191 | Flat | No catalyst; earnings Feb 26 |
| PANW | Cyber | ~$387 | −1.5% | Software sector selloff (−3.5%); earnings Feb 17 |
| CEG | Nuclear | ~$308 | −26% ATH | Meta nuclear deals + TMI restart progress |
| VST | Nuclear | ~$167 | — | Meta 2,609 MW deal; 73–93% earnings growth guided |
| LMT | Defense | ~$630 | Steady | NATO rearmament + munitions supercycle intact |
| TSLA | EV/Storage | ~$339 | −0.9% | Cybercab April start; mixed EV sentiment |
| IONQ | Quantum | ~$35–38 | −62% ATH | Quantum cooling broadly. Earnings Feb 25. |
| RKLB | Space | ~$72 | −25% ATH | Neutron timeline key. Earnings Feb 26. |
| Ticker | Current | Support | Resistance | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | ~$191 | $180 | $200–207 | Consolidating below $200; earnings Feb 26 |
| VRT | ~$229 | $200 (gap-fill) | $260–280 | BREAKOUT — gap-up on massive volume |
| TSM | ~$362 | $340 | $380 | Uptrending; testing upper range |
| PANW | ~$387 | $375 | $410 | Software pressure; earnings Feb 17 |
| CRWD | ~$405–416 | $390 | $430 | Range-bound; FY2027 guidance key |
| LMT | ~$630 | $600 | $650–660 | Steady uptrend on defense visibility |
| CEG | ~$308 | $280 | $340 | −26% from $413 ATH; potential value entry |
| VST | ~$167 | $150 | $180 | Meta deal visibility supports |
| IONQ | ~$35–38 | $30 | $45 | −62% from ATH; Feb 25 earnings critical |
| RKLB | ~$72 | $68 | $80 | −25% from ATH; Neutron/Feb 26 |
| Date | Ticker | Thesis | Tier | Result / Consensus | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Today BMO | VRT | AI Infra | T1 | BEAT — orders +252%, $15B backlog | AI power/cooling thesis VALIDATED |
| Today BMO | GFS | Semis | Adj | BEAT — EPS $0.55 vs $0.44 | $500M buyback; AI/SiPh acquisitions |
| Today AMC | ALB | Minerals | T1 | −$0.49 to −$0.62 EPS | Kings Mountain restart + lithium price guidance |
| Today AMC | CSCO | Networking | Adj | $0.94–1.02 EPS, $15.0–15.2B rev | ANET read-through on DC networking spend |
| Feb 17 | PANW | Cyber | T1 | TBD | CyberArk integration, NGS ARR, PQC traction |
| Feb 25 | IONQ | Quantum | T1 | TBD | $106–110M FY2025 validation; sentiment critical |
| Feb 26 | RKLB | Space | T2 | TBD | Revenue trajectory, Neutron progress |
| Feb 26 | NVDA | AI | T1 | TBD | AI capex bellwether; DC revenue growth rate |
| Ticker | Activity | Detail |
|---|---|---|
| STM | 16,658 calls — 308% above avg | Bullish signal for semiconductor demand breadth |
| LRCX | Large put volume | Hedging ahead of WFE capex guidance |
| VRT | Expect massive volume | 15–23% gap-up; watch institutional confirmation vs distribution |
| ALB | Elevated IV pre-earnings | Lithium sector recovery thesis on the line tonight |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9–13 | NexGen CNSC Rook I hearing | NXE, CCJ, UEC, UUUU | Critical |
| Feb 11 ✓ | VRT Q4 earnings — massive beat | VRT, ETN | Done |
| Feb 11 AMC | ALB Q4 earnings | ALB, SQM, LAC, FLNC | High |
| Feb 11 AMC | CSCO Q2 FY2026 | ANET read-through | Medium |
| Feb 2026 | Palisades nuclear restart (target Feb–Mar) | CEG, VST | Medium |
| Feb 2026 | QuantumScape Eagle Line pilot data | QS, SLDP | Medium |
| Feb 17 | PANW Q2 FY2026 earnings | PANW | High |
| Feb 25 | IonQ Q4/FY2025 earnings | IONQ | High |
| Feb 26 | NVDA Q4 earnings | NVDA | Critical |
| Feb 26 | Rocket Lab Q4 earnings | RKLB | High |
| Late Feb | TerraPower construction permit (expected Q1) | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch window | LUNR, RKLB, LMT, PL | High |
| Mar 27 | NRC Part 53 final rule | SMR, OKLO, BWXT, CEG | Medium |
Powell strikes a balanced tone — acknowledges strong jobs but emphasizes data-dependency. Yields stabilize or retrace. VRT breakout broadens to AI infra sector. Software selloff reverses as dip-buyers emerge.
Choppy, range-bound session. Powell repeats “no urgency to cut” — no new information. Market digests jobs surprise. VRT trades volatile around gap-up levels. Yields drift higher but stabilize.
Powell turns hawkish — opens door to rate hold through September. Yields surge above 4.25%. Software selloff deepens. VRT gap-fill triggered by broad risk-off. Crypto breakdown accelerates.