Thursday, February 12, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

Morning Brief

CPI day — 2.9% headline cements higher-for-longer. ANET earnings after close. MU +10% DRAM shock ignites global semi rally (Nikkei +2.3%, Kospi +3.07%). CGNX +23% robotics breakout. ALB −7% lithium miss. 3 Fed speakers.

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Pre-Market Snapshot

Feb 12 Pre-Market
S&P 500 Futures
—
+0.36%
Edging higher pre-CPI
Nasdaq 100 Futures
—
+0.29%
Semi rally tailwind
Dow Futures
+136 pts
+0.29%
Digesting strong NFP
Russell 2000
2,693
+0.54–0.85%
Small caps outperforming
10Y Yield
~4.21%
Higher expected
CPI will move this
2Y Yield
~3.49%
+6 bps
Front-end repricing on jobs
DXY
96.88
+0.05%
Firming — commodity headwind
WTI Crude
~$64–65
+1.0%
3rd straight gain
Brent Crude
$69.30
+1.0%
3rd straight gain
Gold
$5,076
Near 2-wk high
Safe haven demand
Bitcoin
~$67,600
+0.5%
Stabilizing above $67K
Ethereum
$1,971
+1.4%
Bouncing off lows

Futures edged higher ahead of CPI. Small caps outperforming (+0.54–0.85%) — broadening risk appetite. Semiconductor strength from Asia providing Nasdaq tailwind. CPI 2.9% cements “higher for longer.”

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Overnight / Global

Asia Session

Semiconductors dominated. MU’s DRAM pricing shock ignited a global rally. Nikkei +2.28% to 57,650 (record-high run on Takaichi mandate + semi wave). Kospi +3.07% to 5,522 — record high as Samsung surged past 170K KRW on HBM demand. Hang Seng −0.86% (property weakness). CSI 300 flat +0.12%. Directly benefits NVDA, TSM, AVGO, MU, ASML, AMD.

Europe Session

STOXX 600 +0.4%. Bumper earnings day: Siemens +6.9% (raised FY2026 EPS outlook), Hermès +3% (9.8% Q4 revenue growth). DAX, FTSE, CAC all positive. Markets awaiting US CPI at 8:30 AM ET for direction.

CPI Impact

January CPI: 2.9% headline / 2.7% core (vs 2.7%/2.6% prior). Combined with the strong NFP (+130K), this cements higher-for-longer and pushes rate-cut expectations to September or later. Headwinds: pre-revenue names (OKLO, SMR, QS, IONQ, RGTI), high-multiple tech, crypto. Tailwinds: profitable companies with backlog visibility, financials, value.

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Today’s Calendar

CPI Day
Time (ET)ReleaseActualConsensusPriorSignificance
8:30 AMCPI (Jan, YoY)2.9%~2.8%2.7%Hot Print
8:30 AMCore CPI (Jan, YoY)2.7%~2.7%2.6%In Line / Slightly Hot
8:30 AMInitial Jobless Claims—TBDTBDWeekly
10:00 AMWholesale Inventories (Dec, rev.)—TBDTBDRevised
CPI Hot Print: January CPI came in at 2.9% headline / 2.7% core — inflation re-accelerating. Combined with yesterday’s strong NFP (+130K vs +55K expected), this cements “higher for longer” and pushes rate-cut expectations toward September or later. Pre-market gains may reverse at the open as this is digested. DXY firming → headwind for commodities and EM equities.

Fed Speakers

SpeakerEventKey Focus
Vice Chair BowmanDallas Fed Global PerspectivesMonetary policy
Gov. WallerGlobal Interdependence Center, La JollaEconomic outlook
Vice Chair JeffersonBrookings Institution, DCSupply-side factors & inflation — most relevant given CPI print
Powell’s testimony yesterday struck a “no urgency to cut” tone at 4.25–4.50%. The hot CPI reinforces this posture. Jefferson’s speech on supply-side inflation dynamics is particularly relevant given today’s print.
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Thesis Watchlist

9 Sectors

Major Pre-Market Movers

TickerSectorMoveCatalyst
CGNXRobotics T1+23.2%Q4 beat: Rev $252M (+10%) vs $239M est., EPS $0.27 vs $0.22. $500M buyback. Industrial automation recovery.
MUAI T2+~10%DRAM pricing shock, HBM demand surge igniting global semi rally. Validates “cheapest AI semi” thesis.
EQIXAI Infra+8.6%Data center demand beat. Confirms hyperscaler capex flowing — supports VRT, ETN, CEG, VST.
ALBMinerals T1−7.2%Mixed Q4: Rev $1.4B (+16%), Energy Storage vol +17%, but net loss $414M on write-downs. No 2026 rev guide.
CSCONetworking−7–8%Raised FY26 revenue but margin pressure. Reinforces ANET competitive thesis — Arista at 27.5% DC share vs Cisco’s 29.9%.

Watchlist Read-Throughs

  • MU +10% ripple across AI stack: NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMD, ASML, and SMH +2.71%. HBM demand validates the $650B hyperscaler capex narrative.
  • CSCO −7% is bullish for ANET (Tier 1 AI, reporting tonight). Cisco losing DC switching share to Arista reinforces the 800G cycle thesis.
  • EQIX +8.6% confirms data center demand — supports the power/cooling picks-and-shovels: VRT, ETN, CEG, VST.
  • CGNX +23% validates robotics thesis — positive read-through for ROK, FANUY, TER and the $15B→$24B+ machine vision market.
  • ALB −7%: near-term pain, structural thesis intact. Energy Storage volume +17% validates lithium demand recovery. Watch $145 support.

Tier 1 Broad Snapshot

TickerSector~PricePre-MarketNotes
NVDAAI~$187Slight drift lowerRides semi wave; earnings Feb 26
TSMAI~$362Slight positiveFoundry monopoly intact
AVGOAI~$344FlatCustom silicon consolidating
VRTAI Infra~$229ConsolidatingDigesting +15–23% breakout; $15B backlog
ANETAI Infra~$129NeutralReports after close today
LMTDefense~$630Positive$194B backlog, $77.5–80B 2026 guide
RTXDefense~$195PositiveFramework agreements driving
NOCDefense~$685PositiveB-21, Golden Dome catalysts
CEGNuclear~$308NeutralAnalyst target $413 (Strong Buy)
VSTNuclear~$167NeutralAnalyst target $237; 73–93% growth
CCJNuclear~$116NeutralStrong Buy, 12 analysts
FCXMinerals~$65.46+3.5% recentCopper deficit thesis; DXY headwind
PANWCyber~$387No catalystEarnings Feb 19
CRWDCyber~$410No catalystLate Feb earnings
ISRGRobotics—No catalyst55–60x P/E compounder
IONQQuantum~$36—−62% from ATH; earnings Feb 25
RKLBSpace~$85VolatileATH $99.58; earnings Feb 26

Key Technical Levels — Tier 1

TickerCurrentSupportResistanceSignal
NVDA~$187$175, $160$195, $210Consolidating below highs
TSM~$362$340, $320$380, $400Uptrend intact
AVGO~$344$330, $310$355, $370Tight consolidation
VRT~$229$200–210 (gap-fill)$260–280BREAKOUT — digesting +15–23% gap-up
ANET~$129$115–120$140, $150, $164Earnings tonight is the catalyst
LMT~$630$600, $580$650, $680Steady uptrend
CEG~$308$280, $260$330, $350, $413Pullback from ATH; PPA-insulated
VST~$167$150, $140$180, $200, $237Best value fleet operator
CCJ~$116$105, $100$125, $130Strong Buy consensus
CGNX~$53$43 (gap-fill), $38$55, $60BREAKOUT — +23% gap-up on earnings beat
ALB~$156$145, $130$168, $180BREAKDOWN — −7% gap-down. Watch $145
FCX~$65.46$60, $55$70, $75Copper deficit thesis; Grasberg Q2

Earnings — Watchlist

DateTickerThesisTierResult / ConsensusWhat to Watch
Today AMCANETAI InfraT1Rev ~$2.38B, EPS ~$0.75, GM 62–63%Most important today. Revenue at $2.38B+ confirms 800G cycle. Q1 guide is the market mover.
Feb 11 ✓CGNXRoboticsT1BEAT — Rev $252M (+10%), +23.2%Industrial automation recovery confirmed. $500M buyback.
Feb 11 ✓ALBMineralsT1MIXED — Rev $1.4B, net loss $414MEnergy Storage +17% vol constructive. No 2026 rev guide → uncertainty.
Feb 19PANWCyberT1TBDPlatformization update, CyberArk close. Sets tone for cyber.
Feb 25IONQQuantumT1TBDQuantum bellwether. Validates revenue at −62% from ATH.
Feb 26RKLBSpaceT2TBDSDA contracts, Neutron update.
Feb 26NVDAAIT1TBDTHE capex bellwether. Most consequential single event for AI thesis.

Tier 2/3 Notable

  • SQM (Tier 2, Lithium): −4% pre-market in sympathy with ALB; China lithium pricing soft.
  • NXE (Tier 2, Nuclear): CNSC Part 2 hearing for Rook I mine wrapping today. Strong Indigenous support. Decision ~120 days. Most significant near-term uranium mine catalyst.
  • Defense broadly positive: GD, HII, KTOS, AVAV all benefiting from rearmament sentiment and NATO spending commitment.
  • BKSY (Tier 3, Space): Maintaining $322.7M backlog, Strong Buy consensus.
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Approaching Catalysts

Next 4 Weeks
DateCatalystTickersPriority
Feb 12NXE CNSC Part 2 hearing wrapsNXE, CCJ, UEC, UUUUCritical
Feb 12 AMCANET Q4 earnings — AI networking bellwetherANET, NVDA, AVGO, VRTCritical
Feb 19PANW Q2 FY2026 earningsPANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZSHigh
~Feb–MarPalisades nuclear plant restartCEG, VST, CCJ, LEUMedium
~FebQuantumScape Eagle Line pilot dataQS, SLDPMedium
Feb 25IonQ Q4/FY2025 earningsIONQ, QBTS, RGTIHigh
Feb 26Rocket Lab Q4 2025 earningsRKLB, PL, LUNRHigh
Feb 26NVIDIA Q4 FY2026 earningsNVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANETCritical
Mar 6Artemis II launchLUNR, RKLB, LMT, NOC, PLHigh
Mar 2026Next-Gen OPIR GEO-1 launchLMT, NOCMedium
Mar 2026NRC microreactor proposed ruleBWXT, OKLOMedium
Mar 27NRC Part 53 final ruleSMR, OKLO, BWXT, CEGMedium
Q1 2026AMD MI400 launchAMD, NVDAMedium
Q1 2026USA Rare Earth initial productionUSAR, MPLow
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Scenario Analysis

Heavy Day

Bull Case ~25%

Market digests hot CPI quickly — focuses on strong earnings (CGNX, EQIX, MU) and semi supercycle. ANET delivers blowout with Q1 guide above consensus. Fed speakers remain measured. Yields stabilize.

  • ANET beats $2.38B and raises Q1 guide → confirms 800G cycle, lifts entire AI infra stack
  • S&P holds pre-market gains, pushes toward new highs on earnings strength
  • Semi rally broadens — NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMD all participate
  • 10Y yield stabilizes below 4.25% as market prices in CPI without panic
  • CGNX breakout holds — robotics thesis validated, ROK/TER follow through

Base Case ~50%

Choppy session. Hot CPI reverses pre-market gains at the open. Market treads water waiting for ANET after close. Yields drift higher. Semi strength partially offsets rate anxiety. Selective positioning.

  • Pre-market gains fade at open as 2.9% CPI is digested fully
  • ANET meets consensus — no surprise in either direction, stock moves ±3–5%
  • 10Y yield pushes to 4.22–4.28% — market reprices to September cut
  • Defense and quality names outperform; rate-sensitive pre-revenue names lag
  • Gold holds near $5,076 as safe-haven demand persists

Bear Case ~25%

Hot CPI + hawkish Fed speakers trigger broad risk-off. Yields surge past 4.30%. Pre-revenue names hammered. ANET misses or gives soft Q1 guide — first crack in AI capex narrative. Semi rally reverses.

  • ANET misses or soft Q1 guide → AI infra thesis questioned. VRT, ETN, NVDA all sell off
  • 10Y yield breaks above 4.30% — rate cuts pushed to Q4 2026 or beyond
  • Pre-revenue names hammered: IONQ, RGTI, OKLO, SMR, QS all −3–8%
  • DXY rallies above 97 → commodities (FCX, ALB) and EM equities under pressure
  • Jefferson’s Brookings speech turns hawkish on supply-side inflation → sentiment shift
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Today’s Playbook

Bias: Volatile — CPI Digestion Day. Hot 2.9% CPI + strong NFP = higher-for-longer entrenched. ANET after close is the most important watchlist earnings event. Global semi rally provides a floor for tech. Defense quietly outperforming.

Watch For

  • ANET earnings after close — Revenue at $2.38B+ confirms the 800G cycle and AI infrastructure capex resilience. A miss or soft Q1 guide would be the first crack in the $650B hyperscaler narrative.
  • CPI digestion at the open — Pre-market gains may reverse as 2.9% headline / 2.7% core is fully priced. Watch for yield reaction — 10Y above 4.25% is a risk-off signal.
  • Semiconductor supercycle validation — MU +10%, Nikkei +2.3%, Kospi +3.07%, SMH +2.71%. The global rally benefits NVDA, TSM, AVGO, AMD, ASML, ANET, VRT, ETN.
  • CGNX +23% breakout — Cleanest Tier 1 technical setup. First support test at $43 gap-fill. Positive read-through for robotics thesis.
  • Fed speakers post-CPI — Vice Chair Jefferson at Brookings on supply-side inflation is the most relevant. Any shift from “patient” to “concerned” would move markets.
  • NXE CNSC hearing wrapping — Decision expected ~120 days. Most significant near-term uranium mine catalyst.

Risks to Manage

  • Hot CPI re-accelerates inflation narrative — rate-sensitive names face the most pressure (IONQ, RGTI, OKLO, SMR, QS, RKLB at current multiples)
  • DXY firming → headwind for commodities (FCX, ALB, SQM), EM equities, crypto
  • ALB −7% with no 2026 revenue guidance creates near-term uncertainty for lithium/battery sector
  • Pre-market futures gains may be a head-fake if CPI triggers intraday reversal
  • ANET is binary tonight — a miss would ripple across VRT, NVDA, AVGO, the entire AI infra stack
  • 3 Fed speakers could amplify hawkish messaging if they lean into the hot CPI print

Sector Impact

AI / SemisMU +10% semi supercycle
AI InfraANET tonight is decisive
DefenseInsulated, rearmament
RoboticsCGNX +23% validates
NuclearNXE hearing; yield risk
MineralsALB −7%; DXY headwind
QuantumRate-sensitive, vulnerable
CybersecurityNeutral; PANW Feb 19
SpaceNeutral — Artemis Mar 6
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Sources