Friday, February 13, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

Morning Brief

January CPI prints cool at 2.4% (below 2.5% consensus) — ANET +8.3% on Tier 1 AI earnings beat, AMAT +10.9%, PINS −22%, DKNG −15%, Gold breaks $5,000, CCJ earnings before open, VIX elevated at 20.77, broad AI/software fear narrative.

📊

Pre-Market Snapshot

Feb 13 Pre-Market
S&P 500 Futures
6,851
Flat
Holding ahead of CPI
Nasdaq 100 Futures
24,765
Flat
CPI-dependent direction
Dow Futures
49,512
−0.02%
Essentially flat
Russell 2000
2,630
+0.33%
Small caps outperforming
VIX
20.77
−0.24%
Elevated but easing
10Y Yield
4.060%
−0.37%
Drifting lower pre-CPI
2Y Yield
3.520%
—
Prev close
DXY
96.86
+0.04%
Stable
WTI Crude
$62.93
+0.14%
Modest uptick
Brent Crude
$67.66
+0.21%
Steady
Gold
$5,007
+1.18%
Breaks $5,000 — historic
Bitcoin
$67,145
−1.39%
Rally “broken” below $85K
Ethereum
$1,966
−1.21%
Risk-off crypto

Large caps flat ahead of CPI. Russell 2000 outperforming at +0.33% — risk appetite rotating to small caps. Gold crests $5,000 for the first time. Yields drifting lower (10Y at 4.060%). Crypto soft with BTC −1.39%. VIX at 20.77 elevated but edging down.

🌏

Overnight / Global

Asia Session

Risk-off overnight. Nikkei fell −1.21% to 56,942 and Hang Seng dropped −1.72% to 26,567, reversing yesterday’s semiconductor-driven euphoria. Sell-off driven by AI/software fear contagion from US pre-market (PINS −22%, broad software weakness per Citi) and pre-CPI caution. Kospi held relatively flat at −0.12%.

Europe Session

Europe cautious but holding ground. DAX essentially flat, STOXX 50 unchanged. FTSE −0.08%, CAC −0.51%. Markets in a holding pattern ahead of US CPI release at 8:30 AM ET. No major European catalyst today.

Key Global Reads

Gold breaks $5,000 — persistent safe-haven demand and geopolitical hedging. Yields drifting lower suggests bond markets positioning for a benign CPI print. Asia risk-off is more about fear contagion than fundamental deterioration. Russell 2000 outperformance signals rotation to small caps if CPI cooperates.

📅

Today’s Calendar

CPI Day
Time (ET)ReleaseConsensusPriorSignificance
00:00FOMC Member Logan Speaks——Low
00:05FOMC Member Miran Speaks——Low
8:30 AMCore CPI m/m0.3%0.2%Critical
8:30 AMCPI m/m0.3%0.3%Critical
8:30 AMCPI y/y2.5%2.7%Critical
10:00 AMMortgage Delinquencies—3.99%Low
CPI is the main event. Consensus expects headline y/y at 2.5% (down from 2.7%) and core m/m at 0.3% (up from 0.2%). Early indications suggest the actual print may come in cooler at 2.4% — if confirmed, meaningfully below consensus and could reignite rate-cut expectations. A hot print (2.6%+) would pressure rate-sensitive growth names.

CPI Scenario Framework

ScenarioCPI y/yMarket Impact
Cool≤2.4%Risk-on for growth, rate-sensitive tech, small caps, crypto. 10Y likely dips below 4.0%. Bullish for RKLB, IONQ, OKLO, SMR, QS.
In-Line2.5%Muted reaction. Market already positioned. VIX drifts lower.
Hot≥2.6%Risk-off. Yield spike, growth-to-value rotation, VIX push above 22. Negative for AI/software names already under pressure.
📋

Thesis Watchlist

9 Sectors

Earnings Reporting Today

TickerSectorTimeWhat to Watch
CCJNuclear T1Before OpenBlue-chip uranium play. Watch McArthur River production, rising contract prices, and demand outlook. Any hyperscaler nuclear PPA pipeline mention would be material.

Major Pre-Market Movers

TickerSectorMoveCatalyst
ANETAI Infra T1+8.33%Q4 earnings beat. Validates 800G cycle and AI infrastructure capex. Trading at $146.
AMATSemis+10.88%Earnings beat. Semiconductor equipment demand robust. Trading at $364.
ROKUStreaming+17.05%Streaming earnings beat; analysts see upside. Trading at $97.
COINCrypto+8.56%Post-earnings — Q4 miss but Ark Invest buying; mixed signals. Trading at $153.
LYSCFMinerals T1+3.23%Lynas advancing on rare earth demand. Only non-Chinese rare earth separator at scale. Trading at $11.34.
PINSSoftware−22.38%Tariff impact on ad revenue; earnings collapse. Trading at $14.39.
DKNGGaming−15.34%Q4 earnings miss; guidance disappoints. Trading at $21.30.
WENConsumer−5.04%Deteriorating same-store sales; near 13-year low. Trading at $6.90.

Watchlist Read-Throughs

  • ANET +8.33% validates 800G networking cycle — Direct read-through for NVDA, VRT, AVGO. Arista’s competitive positioning vs. Cisco (which fell −7% yesterday on margin pressure) strengthens DC switching thesis.
  • MP Materials advancing on national security narrative — Government-backed cash flow floor constructive for critical minerals thesis.
  • CSCO “quietly winning AI buildout” — But yesterday’s margin pressure and Arista’s beat reinforce ANET as the DC switching winner.
  • Zebra Technologies (ZBR) Q4 beat — Signals AI pivot; tangential robotics/automation read-through.

Notable Tier 1 Moves (>3% or RSI Extremes)

TickerSectorPriceMoveRSISignal
ANETAI Infra$146+8.33%49Breakout. Gapping above SMA20 ($138), SMA50 ($133), SMA200 ($125).
LYSCFMinerals$11.34+3.23%42Above SMA20 ($10.93) and SMA50 ($9.75). Well above SMA200 ($8.62).
CGNXRobotics$57.42−2.13%87Overbought. RSI 87 after +23% gap-up. Digestion pullback expected.
ZSCyber$174+1.72%24Deeply oversold. 35% below SMA200 ($269). Mean-reversion candidate.
IONQQuantum$31.92+1.98%24Deeply oversold. 33% below SMA200 ($47.34). Earnings Feb 25.
ISRGRobotics$477−0.33%26Oversold. 8% below SMA200 ($516). Unusual for this compounder.
CACICyber$559−0.44%24Deeply oversold. 7% above SMA200 ($522) but RSI extreme.
LEUNuclear$185−0.24%33Below SMA20 ($280) and SMA50 ($273). Consolidating hard.
FLNCStorage$17.55+0.63%29Oversold. 31% below SMA20. Backlog-supported floor thesis intact.
LDOSCyber$172+0.56%28Oversold. Near SMA200 ($176). Defense contractor at discount.

Key Technical Levels — Tier 1

TickerPriceSMA20SMA50SMA200Position
NVDA$187$186$184$171Above all — healthy trend
TSM$370$341$319$263Above all — strong uptrend
AVGO$330$331$347$312Pinned at SMA20, below SMA50
VRT$238$192$179$148Extended above all — breakout digestion
ANET$146$138$133$125Gapping above all on earnings
CCJ$116$121$105$83Between SMA20/SMA50. Earnings today.
CEG$278$282$325$326Below SMA20, well below SMA50/200
LMT$631$609$537$484Above all — steady defense uptrend
CRWD$414$435$465$472Below all three — under pressure
PANW$163$174$183$193Below all three — earnings Feb 17 critical

Sector Snapshot

SectorT1 SignalSummary
AI InfrastructureANET +8.33%800G cycle validated. Broad stack holding despite software fear contagion.
Critical MineralsLYSCF +3.23%Lynas leading on rare earth demand. Copper soft as smelting hits decade low.
CybersecurityQuietZS deeply oversold (RSI 24). Active threat landscape supports structural demand. PANW Feb 17.
DefenseMinor profit-takingJPMorgan calls aero engines “golden age.” Structural thesis intact.
Energy StorageFlatTesla China sales −45% YoY but energy storage is the growth story. Australian BESS accelerating.
NuclearCCJ earnings todayCLEAN SMART bill reintroduced. Sector consolidating after strong run.
QuantumFunding weekBritish $250M fund → Photonic, Infleqtion $550M SPAC. Sub-100K qubit RSA-2048 claims.
RoboticsCGNX −2.13%Digesting +23% breakout. RSI 87. Sector in cyclical recovery.
SpaceCrew-12 launchVast wins ISS mission. iSpace raises $729M. Artemis II Mar 6.
⚡

Approaching Catalysts

Next 8 Weeks
DateCatalystTickersPriority
TodayCCJ Q4 earnings (before open)CCJ, UEC, UUUU, NXECritical
Feb 17PANW earnings — cyber platformizationPANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZSHigh
Feb 17CEG earnings — fleet operator PPA revenueCEG, VST, CCJHigh
Feb 17LDOS earnings — defense cyber spendLDOS, CACI, BAHMedium
Feb 25NVDA Q4 FY2026 earnings — THE capex bellwetherNVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANETCritical
Feb 26IONQ earnings — quantum bellwetherIONQ, QBTS, RGTIHigh
Feb 26RKLB earnings — SDA ramp, NeutronRKLB, PL, LUNRHigh
Feb 26MP earnings — magnet revenue, DOD equityMP, LYSCF, ALBHigh
Feb 26VST earnings — Meta deal visibilityVST, CEG, TLNHigh
~Feb–MarPalisades nuclear plant restartCEG, VST, CCJ, LEUMedium
Mar 3CRWD earnings — Charlotte AI monetizationCRWD, PANW, ZSHigh
Mar 6Artemis II launchLUNR, RKLB, LMT, NOCCritical
Q1 2026TerraPower construction permitSMR, OKLO, BWXTMedium
Q1 2026AMD MI400 launchAMD, NVDAMedium
Q2 2026Cerebras IPO (Nasdaq)CRWV, NVDAMedium
Q2 2026Freeport Grasberg phased restartFCX, SCCOHigh
Mid-2026SpaceX IPORKLB, PL, LUNR, UFOHigh
🎯

Scenario Analysis

Heavy Day

Bull Case — Cool CPI ~35%

CPI prints at ≤2.4% y/y, meaningfully below consensus. Rate-cut expectations reignite. ANET +8.3% leads AI infra higher. Gold strength validates macro positioning. Small-cap rotation accelerates.

  • CPI at 2.4% triggers broad risk-on — 10Y yield breaks below 4.0%, rate-sensitive tech surges
  • ANET earnings beat ripples through AI stack: VRT, NVDA, AVGO all benefit from validated capex narrative
  • Russell 2000 extends outperformance as duration-sensitive small caps rally on rate expectations
  • Gold holds above $5,000 as real rates decline, establishing new support floor
  • Pre-revenue names (IONQ, OKLO, SMR, QS, RKLB) catch a tailwind on rate repricing
  • VIX drops below 19 — fear narrative breaks

Base Case — In-Line CPI ~40%

CPI at 2.5% meets consensus. Muted initial reaction. Market focused on earnings movers (ANET, AMAT) and digesting the AI/software fear narrative. VIX drifts lower but remains elevated.

  • In-line print already priced — market treads water, focuses on individual earnings stories
  • ANET and AMAT strength supports AI infra, but PINS −22% and software weakness cap broader sentiment
  • 10Y yield holds 4.0–4.1% range, no significant repricing of rate expectations
  • CCJ earnings before open provides nuclear sector direction — moderate volatility
  • VIX drifts from 20.77 toward 19.5 — cautious but improving risk appetite

Bear Case — Hot CPI ~25%

CPI prints ≥2.6% y/y — hot. Combines with AI/software fear narrative to trigger broad risk-off. Yield spike erases rate-cut hopes. Two consecutive hot CPI prints (Dec 2.9%, Jan 2.6%+) would cement higher-for-longer through 2026.

  • 10Y yield spikes above 4.15%, growth-to-value rotation accelerates
  • VIX pushes above 22 — elevated fear regime entrenches
  • AI/software fear narrative compounds: PINS −22%, Citi “software horror show” validated by macro headwind
  • Rate-sensitive names hammered: IONQ, RGTI, OKLO, SMR, QS, RKLB all −3–8%
  • ANET +8.3% pre-market gains potentially fade if broad risk-off overwhelms earnings beat
  • DXY rally above 97 pressures commodities (FCX, ALB), crypto (BTC tests $65K support)
📝

Today’s Playbook

Bias: Neutral with bullish lean, CPI-dependent. Cool CPI (early indications at 2.4%) would unlock risk-on rally. ANET +8.33% validates AI infra demand. Gold above $5,000. Russell 2000 outperforming. Software weakness (PINS −22%) caps upside.

Watch For

  • CPI at 8:30 AM — the tie-breaker. Consensus 2.5% y/y, early signals at 2.4%. Cool print reignites rate-cut expectations and unlocks growth rally. Hot print (2.6%+) triggers risk-off.
  • ANET +8.33% earnings ripple. Validates 800G cycle and AI infrastructure capex. Watch for follow-through in VRT, NVDA, AVGO, and the broader AI stack.
  • CCJ earnings before open. Key uranium bellwether. McArthur River production, contract pricing, and any hyperscaler nuclear PPA pipeline mention are material.
  • Gold at $5,007 — first time above $5,000. Safe-haven demand reflects geopolitical hedging. Watch if this becomes new support or an exhaustion signal.
  • 10Y yield at 4.060%. A break below 4.0% on cool CPI is bullish for growth. A move above 4.15% on hot CPI is hawkish.
  • Russell 2000 +0.33% outperformance. Small-cap rotation could accelerate on cool CPI. Watch for follow-through at the open.

Risks to Manage

  • CPI surprise to the upside — the single biggest risk. Two consecutive hot prints (Dec 2.9%, Jan hot) would reset rate expectations through 2026.
  • AI spending narrative erosion — Citi’s “software horror show” and OpenAI deploying on Cerebras (first move away from NVIDIA) introduce competitive dynamics.
  • Tariff escalation — $3.5B Customs bond funding shortfall. PINS −22% directly attributed to tariff impact on ad earnings.
  • Fed leadership transition — Bessent urging Warsh hearings for Fed chair despite Powell probe introduces institutional uncertainty.
  • Crypto fragility — BTC rally “broken” below $85K per Deribit. Further weakness could drag COIN, crypto-adjacent equities.

Sector Impact

AI InfraANET +8.33% validates
SemisAMAT +10.9% earnings
MineralsLYSCF +3.23%, MP advancing
NuclearCCJ earnings — key event
DefenseMinor profit-taking; insulated
CybersecurityZS oversold; PANW Feb 17
QuantumFunding week; rate-sensitive
RoboticsCGNX overbought RSI 87
SpaceCrew-12 launch; Artemis Mar 6
🔗

Sources

  • Markets & Macro
  • CNBC: Consumer prices rose 2.4% annually in January, less than expected
  • CNBC: Trump tariffs leave importers with record $3.5B Customs bond shortfall
  • MarketWatch: Software “horror show” could get even scarier, says Citi
  • CNBC: Senate should proceed with Warsh hearings for Fed chair: Bessent
  • MarketWatch: Anthropic funding round drives rally in Claude maker’s proxy
  • Crypto
  • CoinDesk: Crypto market wobbles as investors look for “exit ramp”
  • CoinDesk: Bitcoin long-term rally “broken” until it reclaims $85,000
  • CoinDesk: Wall Street analysts cut Coinbase price targets following Q4 miss
  • Defense & Space
  • SpaceNews / NASA: SpaceX Crew-12 launches to ISS
  • SpaceNews: Vast wins ISS private astronaut mission
  • SpaceNews: China’s iSpace raises record $729M for reusable rockets
  • Breaking Defense: Estonians in Saudi Arabia for defense procurement
  • Cybersecurity
  • BleepingComputer: CISA flags critical Microsoft SCCM flaw as exploited
  • The Hacker News: BeyondTrust CVSS 9.9 vulnerability exploited in the wild
  • The Hacker News: Malicious Chrome extensions stealing business data
  • Quantum Computing
  • The Quantum Insider: British $250M fund invests in Photonic Inc
  • The Quantum Insider: Infleqtion set to receive $550M as SPAC redemptions stay low
  • The Quantum Insider: Sub-100K qubits could break RSA-2048 claim
  • Semiconductors
  • Tom’s Hardware: OpenAI deploys GPT-5.3-Codex-Spark on Cerebras chips
  • Tom’s Hardware: Tachyum shutters R&D office amid financial troubles
  • MarketWatch: JPMorgan calls aero engines a “golden age” investment
  • Nuclear & Energy
  • ANS Nuclear Newswire: CLEAN SMART bill reintroduced in Senate
  • CleanTechnica: Tesla China sales drop 45% YoY
  • Energy Storage News: US trade rules could accelerate BESS diversification
  • Energy Storage News: 500MWh Tesla Megapack BESS opens in Queensland
  • Critical Minerals
  • Northern Miner: Copper price eases as global smelting hits decade low
  • Mining Technology: Trump reverses key Obama-era climate ruling
  • Seeking Alpha: MP Materials advancing on national security narrative
  • Data Sources
  • Schwab API (pre-market quotes, futures, yields, commodities)
  • CoinGecko (BTC, ETH pricing)
  • Stooq (DXY, Kospi, FTSE)
  • FRED (2Y yield, prev close)