Monday, February 16, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

Morning Brief

Presidents’ Day — U.S. markets closed. Planning session for a packed week: FOMC minutes, PANW/LDOS/CEG earnings Tuesday, NVDA Feb 25. Broad watchlist strength with 38 names >3% up. Quantum, nuclear, cyber, and crypto sectors rallying. VIX pinned at 20.60.

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Pre-Market Snapshot

Feb 16 — Holiday
S&P 500 Futures
6,874
+0.35%
Green into holiday
Nasdaq 100 Futures
24,862
+0.24%
Modest bid
Dow Futures
49,742
+0.35%
Steady
Russell 2000
2,657
+0.16%
Small caps bid
VIX
20.60
Flat
Elevated but stable
10Y Yield
4.056%
Flat
Below 4.1% threshold
2Y Yield
3.470%
—
Prev close
2s/10s Spread
+59 bps
—
Normal slope, easing priced
DXY
96.94
+0.18%
Modest dollar strength
WTI Crude
$63.02
+0.21%
Steady
Gold
$5,022
−0.48%
Holding above $5K
Bitcoin
$69,931
+0.79%
Bouncing from $68K flush
Ethereum
$2,018
−0.05%
Risk-off crypto broadly

Equity futures mildly green heading into a holiday-shortened session. VIX pinned at 20.60 — elevated but not expanding. 2s/10s at +59 bps reflects normal slope with easing priced in. Gold holding above $5,000 despite modest pullback. Bitcoin bouncing from weekend $68K flush. DXY creeping higher at 96.94.

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Overnight / Global

Asia Session

Mixed session. Nikkei −0.24% to 56,806 as GDP rebound missed expectations — economy avoided technical recession but Q4 growth underwhelmed. Hang Seng +0.52% continuing China-tech-driven rally, consistent with Goldman call that Asian markets have further upside. Kospi −0.12% drifted slightly lower.

Europe Session

STOXX 50 outperformed at +1.09%, validating the “great rotation” from US toward Europe narrative. DAX flat, CAC +0.31%, FTSE flat. Munich Security Conference backdrop — Dalio describing the end of the post-war order — weighs on geopolitical sentiment but European equity flows remain robust. Dassault Systèmes −8% on AI fears is a counter-signal for European software names.

Key Global Reads

European rotation accelerating — STOXX 50 +1.09% outperformance continues to validate the structural re-rating narrative. Asia mixed but constructive (Goldman “bangers” call intact). Japan GDP miss a headwind but no contagion. Russia daily crypto turnover exceeds $650M — sovereign crypto adoption expanding.

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Today’s Calendar

Holiday — Markets Closed
Time (ET)ReleaseConsensusPriorSignificance
All DayPresidents’ Day — U.S. Markets Closed——Holiday
1:25 PMFOMC Member Bowman Speaks——Low
Light calendar due to holiday. The week ahead is far more active — FOMC meeting minutes, PANW/LDOS/CEG earnings Tuesday, and NVDA on Feb 25. Use today to position for the packed week. Watch Bowman for any deviation from the Fed’s easing posture.
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Thesis Watchlist

9 Sectors

Tomorrow’s Earnings — Tuesday, Feb 17

TickerSectorTimeWhat to Watch
PANWCyber T1Before OpenPlatform consolidation update, CyberArk integration. RSI 33 — deeply oversold. Potential snap-back if results are clean. Trading at $167.
LDOSCyber T1Before Open$46.2B backlog, NorthStar 2030 cyber strategy. Up 6.14% today to $182. Momentum into earnings.
CEGNuclear T1Before OpenLargest nuclear fleet, Calpine acquisition, hyperscaler PPA updates. RSI 52 — neutral. Trading at $289.

Major Pre-Market Movers

TickerSectorMoveCatalyst
MSTRCrypto+9.11%Bouncing off weekend crypto lows. Says it can survive even if BTC drops to $8K. Trading at $134.
IONQQuantum T1+9.01%Majorana qubit breakthrough & Delta Gold/Penn State licensing deal. RSI 34, oversold. Trading at $34.12.
RIOTCrypto+8.10%Crypto miner bouncing hard off weekend lows. Trading at $15.35.
RGTIQuantum T2+7.14%Sector-wide quantum computing strength. Trading at $16.06.
LEUNuclear T1+7.00%War/Energy Dept nuclear partnership. Oversold bounce, RSI 37. Trading at $198.
FLNCStorage T1+6.33%Vietnam BESS breakthrough & Australia 600MWh deployment. RSI 32, deeply oversold. Trading at $18.54.
LDOSCyber T1+6.14%Broad cyber strength on Chrome zero-day & BeyondTrust headlines. Earnings tomorrow. Trading at $182.
PLSpace T1+5.82%Pentagon LEO constellation reviews & Isaacman/Roscosmos meeting. Above SMA50 ($21.43). Trading at $22.54.
NETCyber T2+5.77%Broad cybersecurity rally. Trading at $196.
VSTNuclear T1+5.14%Nuclear partnership headline. Breaking above SMA50 ($163), approaching SMA200 ($180). Trading at $171.
CEGNuclear T1+4.65%Nuclear sector strength. Earnings tomorrow. Reclaimed SMA20 ($279). Trading at $289.
ANETAI Infra T1+4.47%WDC sold-out-of-HDDs signals sustained data center demand. Reclaiming SMA20 ($138). Trading at $141.
CRWDCyber T1+4.24%Broad cyber strength. RSI 39, oversold. Earnings Mar 3. Trading at $429.

Notable Tier 1 Moves (>3% or RSI Extremes)

TickerSectorPriceMoveRSISignal
IONQQuantum$34.12+9.01%34Oversold bounce. Still well below SMA20 ($40.59).
LEUNuclear$198+7.00%37Oversold bounce. Massive gap below SMA20 ($275).
FLNCStorage$18.54+6.33%32Deeply oversold. Trading 26% below SMA20 ($25.22).
LDOSCyber$182+6.14%36Earnings tomorrow. Testing SMA200 ($177).
PLSpace$22.54+5.82%41Above SMA50 ($21.43), holding 200-day trend.
VSTNuclear$171+5.14%61Breaking above SMA50 ($163), approaching SMA200 ($180).
CEGNuclear$289+4.65%52Earnings tomorrow. Below SMA200 ($326).
ANETAI Infra$141+4.47%48Reclaiming above SMA20 ($138) and SMA50 ($133).
ZSCyber$179+4.62%26Most oversold T1. 33% below SMA200 ($269). Earnings Feb 26.
CRWDCyber$429+4.24%39Oversold. 10% below SMA200 ($472). Earnings Mar 3.
CGNXRobotics$58.61Flat89Extremely overbought. 50%+ above SMA200 ($38.42). Caution.
ISRGRobotics$485+1.25%28Deeply oversold. Below all SMAs. Watch for capitulation.

Key Technical Levels — Tier 1

TickerPriceSMA20SMA50SMA200Position
NVDA$183$185$184$172Sandwiched between 50-day and 200-day; must hold $172
TSM$367$342$321$264Above all SMAs — strongest AI trend
AVGO$325$330$346$313Below 20/50-day, holding 200-day at $313
CRWD$429$434$464$472Below all SMAs — needs to reclaim $434
ZS$179$194$215$269Below all by wide margins — capitulation territory
CEG$289$279$324$326Reclaimed 20-day; 200-day at $326 is the target
LMT$654$612$541$485Above all SMAs — strongest defense prime
IONQ$34.12$40.59$45.97$47.37Below all SMAs — deeply discounted from peaks
ISRG$485$505$542$516Below all SMAs — RSI 28 extreme oversold

Sector Snapshot

SectorT1 SignalSummary
AI InfrastructureANET +4.47%Networking strong (ANET, CIEN, NOW), semis mixed. WDC sold-out-of-HDDs validates demand. AI trade in “puzzling phase” per Deutsche Bank.
CybersecurityLDOS +6.14%Broadest sector strength. Chrome zero-day and BeyondTrust exploitation driving urgency. PANW/LDOS earnings tomorrow.
Nuclear EnergyLEU +7.00%War/Energy Depts nuclear partnership. CEG earnings tomorrow. LEU and VST leading oversold bounce.
Quantum ComputingIONQ +9.01%Majorana qubit breakthrough and Delta Gold/Penn State deal. Sector rally but all names deeply below SMAs.
DefenseLMT +2.56%Steady strength. LMT above all SMAs, RSI 73 overbought but momentum intact. NATO rearmament via Munich.
SpacePL +5.82%Pentagon LEO review and Isaacman/Roscosmos. PL holding above 50-day. Artemis II (Mar 6) approaching.
Energy StorageFLNC +6.33%Vietnam BESS breakthrough and Australia 600MWh. Tesla European sales cratering is a headwind.
Critical MineralsLYSCF +3.73%Gold miners rallying (AGI +7.66%, BTG +7.17%, GOLD +5.74%) on $5K+ gold. FCX Grasberg Q2 restart.
RoboticsQuietCGNX extremely overbought at RSI 89. ISRG deeply oversold at RSI 28 — watch for entry.

RSI Extremes

Overbought (RSI > 70)

  • CGNX 89 · HON 76 · LMT 73 · VRT 71

Oversold (RSI < 35)

  • ZS 26 · ISRG 28 · SQM 31 · FLNC 32
  • PANW 33 · CACI 31 · IBM 34 · IONQ 34
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Approaching Catalysts

Next 8 Weeks
DateCatalystTickersPriority
TomorrowPANW earnings — cyber platformization, RSI 33 oversoldPANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZSCritical
TomorrowLDOS earnings — $46.2B backlog, NorthStar 2030LDOS, CACI, BAHHigh
TomorrowCEG earnings — largest nuclear fleet, Calpine dealCEG, VST, CCJHigh
Feb 25NVDA Q4 earnings — THE capex bellwetherNVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANETCritical
Feb 26ZS, RKLB, VST, MP earningsZS, RKLB, VST, MPHigh
Mar 3CRWD earnings — Charlotte AI monetizationCRWD, PANW, ZSHigh
Mar 4AVGO earningsAVGO, NVDAHigh
Mar 6Artemis II launchLUNR, RKLB, LMT, NOCCritical
Q1 2026NexGen CNSC hearingNXE, CCJMedium
Q1 2026Palisades nuclear restart targetCEG, VSTMedium
Q1 2026TerraPower construction permitNuclear sectorMedium
Mar 27Part 53 final ruleNuclear sectorMedium
Q1 2026AMD MI400 launchAMD, NVDAMedium
Q2 2026Cerebras IPO (Nasdaq)AI sectorMedium
Q2 2026Freeport Grasberg restartFCX, SCCOHigh
H1 2026Quantinuum IPOHON, IONQHigh
Mid-2026SpaceX IPO (~$1.5T)RKLB, PL, LUNRHigh
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Scenario Analysis

Heavy Day

Bull Case — Tuesday Earnings Triple-Header Delivers ~30%

PANW, LDOS, and CEG all beat expectations Tuesday. Oversold names (PANW RSI 33, ZS RSI 26) snap back hard. FOMC minutes dovish, confirming easing bias. Broad watchlist strength today follows through into the week.

  • PANW breaks above SMA20 ($174) on clean platformization results — cyber sector follows (ZS, CRWD, FTNT)
  • CEG earnings + Calpine acquisition details drive nuclear sector higher; VST follows toward SMA200 ($180)
  • FOMC minutes confirm growth mandate focus — rate-sensitive oversold names rally (IONQ, FLNC, ISRG)
  • VIX breaks below 20 as holiday-compressed volatility unwinds; risk appetite returns
  • BTC stabilizes above $70K, MSTR/RIOT momentum continues; crypto fear subsides
  • Broad-based watchlist strength (38 names >3%) signals durable rotation, not just a bounce

Base Case — Mixed Earnings, Positioning Week ~45%

Tuesday earnings are mixed — some beats, some in-line. Market consolidates holiday gains. Focus shifts to NVDA on Feb 25 as the true bellwether. VIX stays in 19–21 range.

  • PANW/LDOS results adequate but no blowout — cyber names hold current levels, no major re-rating
  • CEG earnings in line; nuclear sector treads water until Palisades restart and FOMC minutes clarity
  • Quantum and crypto movers today give back some gains as holiday liquidity normalizes
  • Market enters a holding pattern until NVDA Feb 25 — the definitive AI capex read
  • VIX drifts between 19–21; elevated but not expanding

Bear Case — Hawkish FOMC + Earnings Miss ~25%

FOMC minutes reveal hawkish dissent on rate cuts. One or more of Tuesday’s earnings disappoint. Tariff escalation headlines compound the selling. VIX pushes above 22.

  • PANW misses — already at RSI 33, could flush to new lows; drags entire cyber sector (ZS, CRWD, NET)
  • FOMC minutes signal slower pace of cuts — rate-sensitive names hammered (IONQ, FLNC, SMR, OKLO)
  • Munich Security Conference “end of post-war order” narrative spooks European equities; STOXX 50 reverses
  • BTC fails to hold $68K — next support in low $60Ks; crypto-linked equities (MSTR, RIOT, COIN) sell off hard
  • Trump tariff escalation headlines compound selling; DXY pushes above 97.5, pressuring commodities and gold
  • Tesla European sales collapse (-55% to -93%) creates broader EV/energy storage contagion
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Today’s Playbook

Bias: Neutral-to-Cautiously Bullish. Presidents’ Day holiday — use the session to prepare for Tuesday’s earnings triple-header (PANW, LDOS, CEG) and a stacked week. Broad-based watchlist strength (38 names >3% up) with oversold bounces across quantum, nuclear, cyber, and energy storage.

Watch For

  • Tuesday’s earnings triple-header: PANW (RSI 33, deeply oversold — potential snap-back), LDOS (+6.14% momentum into earnings, $46.2B backlog), CEG (nuclear sentiment strong, Calpine deal, RSI neutral at 52).
  • FOMC minutes this week: Crypto and rates markets closely watching for signals on pace of future cuts. Any hawkish surprises hit rate-sensitive sectors.
  • NVDA Feb 25 — the week’s marquee event. Must hold $172 (200-day SMA). WDC sold-out-of-HDDs signals validates sustained data center demand.
  • Oversold Tier 1 candidates: ZS (RSI 26), ISRG (RSI 28), FLNC (RSI 32), PANW (RSI 33), IONQ (RSI 34) at extreme technical levels.
  • BTC at $69.9K bouncing from $68K. If BTC stabilizes above $70K, crypto miners (MSTR, RIOT) could see follow-through. Watch FOMC minutes for rates signal.
  • VIX at 20.60 — the dividing line. A break below 20 signals risk appetite returning. Staying above 20 maintains the cautious regime.

Risks to Manage

  • FOMC minutes hawkish surprise — any pushback on rate cut pace would hit nuclear utilities, REITs, and growth tech hardest.
  • Munich Security Conference fallout — Dalio’s “end of post-war order” comments and broader geopolitical framing could weigh on sentiment.
  • Crypto contagion — Bitcoin fell to $68K over the weekend. Leverage-driven volatility threatening the “digital gold” narrative.
  • Trump tariff escalation — tariffs raising red flags; aluminum tariff rollback talk bringing “little relief.”
  • Tesla European sales collapse — down 55–93% across major markets. Could create collateral pressure on energy storage thesis (Megapack).
  • Overbought CGNX (RSI 89) — 50%+ above 200-day. New entries carry elevated reversal risk.

Sector Impact

CybersecurityBroadest strength; PANW/LDOS Tue
NuclearLEU +7%, CEG earnings Tue
QuantumIONQ +9%, Majorana breakthrough
SpacePL +5.8%, Pentagon LEO review
Energy StorageFLNC +6.3%, BESS expansion
AI InfraANET +4.5%, semis mixed
MineralsGold miners strong, $5K+ gold
DefenseSteady; LMT overbought RSI 73
RoboticsCGNX RSI 89 caution; ISRG RSI 28
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Sources

  • Markets & Macro
  • “Great rotation” from US toward Europe — Goldman says Asian markets are “bangers”
  • AI trade entering “puzzling phase” — Deutsche Bank traces sell-off seeds to 2022
  • China tech shock threatens US AI monopoly — “just getting started” per CNBC
  • Trump tariffs raising red flags — noticeable stock market impact
  • Software multiples sinking despite growth — negative read for high-multiple SaaS/cyber
  • Crypto
  • Bitcoin fell to $68K in broad crypto selloff — ETF flows down but no panic capitulation
  • Strategy (MSTR) says it can survive BTC at $8,000 — will “equitize” debt
  • Russia daily crypto turnover exceeds $650M — sovereign adoption continues
  • Apollo, BlackRock, OKX deepening crypto infrastructure
  • Cybersecurity
  • Chrome zero-day (CVE-2026-2441) under active attack — Google patched
  • CISA gives 3-day deadline on BeyondTrust flaw — active exploitation
  • New ZeroDayRAT mobile spyware enables real-time surveillance
  • ClickFix attack campaign using DNS/nslookup — Microsoft disclosed
  • Canada Goose 600K customer records leaked
  • Defense & Space
  • War and Energy Departments partner on nuclear power for military base energy security
  • Pentagon LEO constellation partially on hold during acquisition reviews
  • Isaacman planning to meet with head of Roscosmos — cooperation signal
  • Energy & EVs
  • Tesla sales collapsed in Europe — down 55–93% vs. 2024 across major markets
  • European EV market share strong — Norway 97.5%, UK 34.6%, Germany 30%
  • Vietnam BESS breakthrough signals ASEAN energy storage expansion
  • Australia deploying 600MWh battery storage
  • Semiconductors
  • Western Digital sold out of hard drives for all of 2026 — agreements extending into 2027–2028
  • OpenClaw-fueled Apple Mac shortage — delivery delays up to 6 weeks
  • Quantum Computing
  • Majorana qubit single-shot parity readout breakthrough
  • Delta Gold signs quantum research licensing deal with Penn State
  • Board-level quantum and AI strategy briefings emerging in 2026
  • Data Sources
  • Schwab API (pre-market quotes, futures, yields, commodities)
  • CoinGecko (BTC, ETH pricing)
  • Stooq (DXY, Kospi, FTSE)
  • FRED (2Y yield, prev close)