First full trading day after Presidents’ Day. Three watchlist earnings before the open: PANW, LDOS, CEG. Empire State Manufacturing at 8:30 AM ET. Two FOMC speakers. Risk-off tone prevails — UBS downgrades US tech, VIX jumps 5% to 22.28, Nasdaq futures −0.88%.
Decidedly risk-off into the first session back from the holiday. Nasdaq leading downside at −0.88%, consistent with the UBS downgrade of US tech and the AI rotation narrative. VIX spike to 22.28 (+5%) signals hedging demand accelerating. Gold sells off sharply (−1.87%) from above $5,000 alongside crypto (−2.67%) — unusual divergence suggesting deleveraging, not macro signal. Crude catching a bid (+1.1%). Dollar firming at 97.20.
Nikkei −0.42% to 56,566 reflecting continued GDP disappointment and risk-off spillover. Hang Seng +0.52% bucked the trend — Alibaba’s Qwen3.5 launch keeping China AI excitement alive. Kospi −0.12% drifted slightly lower.
Essentially unchanged across the board. STOXX 50 +0.04% — yesterday’s rally paused. FTSE +0.19% modestly green. UK employment data showed rising unemployment and private pay increases slowing to 5-year lows, pulling sterling lower. Europe’s military buildup narrative continues — military bond issuance could create a rival to US Treasurys.
Risk-off tone is global. Japan weak on GDP miss spillover. China AI (Qwen3.5) is the lone bright spot. European defense bond narrative is structural — watch for fixed-income implications. UK labor data softening could signal broader European deceleration.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:20 AM | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 6.5K | Low |
| 8:30 AM | Empire State Manufacturing Index | 6.4 | 7.7 | Medium |
| 9:48 AM | Cleveland Fed Inflation Expectations | — | 3.3% | Low |
| 10:00 AM | NAHB Housing Market Index | 38 | 37 | Low |
| 12:45 PM | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 2:30 PM | FOMC Member Daly Speaks | — | — | Low |
| Ticker | Sector | Time | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | Cyber T1 | Before Open | Deeply oversold at RSI 33, trading $166 vs. SMA200 $193. CyberArk integration update, platform consolidation metrics, NGS ARR trajectory. Binary event — a clean beat could trigger sharp snap-back. |
| LDOS | Cyber T1 | Before Open | Surging +4.75% pre-market to $185. $46.2B backlog, NorthStar 2030 cyber strategy. Now above SMA200 ($177). Defense cyber tailwind — Pentagon $15.1B for cyber in FY2026. |
| CEG | Nuclear T1 | Before Open | Largest nuclear fleet (22.6 GW). RSI neutral at 52. TMI restart timeline, Calpine acquisition update, hyperscaler PPA announcements. Trading $288 vs. SMA200 $326. |
| Ticker | Sector | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| MASI | Medical | +34.15% | Danaher nearing $10B acquisition. Massive premium validates medical device asset values. |
| INFY | IT Services | +6.32% | Pre-market strength. |
| NCLH | Leisure | +5.58% | Cruise line bid. |
| LDOS | Cyber T1 | +4.75% | Second consecutive day of strength (+6.14% yesterday). Now above SMA200 ($177). Earnings today. |
| DHR | Life Sciences | −6.92% | Masimo deal dilution concerns on $10B acquisition price. |
| VRT | AI Infra T1 | −1.14% | Blowout Q4 earnings keeps bullish view intact. RSI 71 approaching overbought. $9.5B backlog. |
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Move | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LDOS | Cyber | $185 | +4.75% | 36 | Earnings day strength, now above SMA200 ($177) |
| CGNX | Robotics | $59.01 | +0.37% | 89 | Extremely overbought. 54% above SMA200 ($38.42). Reversal risk elevated. |
| HON | Quantum | $241 | −0.31% | 76 | Overbought territory. Quantinuum IPO (S-1 filed Jan 2026) remains catalyst. |
| VRT | AI Infra | $232 | −1.14% | 71 | Post-blowout earnings, approaching overbought. $9.5B backlog intact. |
| LMT | Defense | $654 | +0.19% | 73 | Overbought, above all SMAs. F-35 + PAC-3 ramp + $194B backlog. |
| ISRG | Robotics | $485 | −0.09% | 28 | Deeply oversold. Below all SMAs — 6% below SMA200 ($516). Potential capitulation. |
| ZS | Cyber | $176 | −0.69% | 26 | Most oversold T1. 35% below SMA200 ($269). Earnings Feb 26. |
| SQM | Storage | $70.03 | −1.24% | 31 | Oversold. Lithium price stabilization at $20K/tonne key. Earnings Feb 27. |
| PANW | Cyber | $166 | −0.57% | 33 | Reporting today. 14% below SMA200 ($193). Binary event. |
| FLNC | Storage | $18.11 | −1.90% | 32 | Deeply oversold, 28% below SMA20 ($25.22). $5.5B backlog floor. |
| IBM | Quantum | $260 | −0.87% | 34 | Oversold, 7% below SMA200 ($280). Kookaburra QEC processor 2026. |
| IONQ | Quantum | $33.83 | −0.82% | 34 | Below all SMAs. Q4 2025 earnings Feb 25. |
| Ticker | Price | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $182 | $185 | $184 | $172 | Sandwiched between SMAs. $172 (200-day) is critical support |
| TSM | $360 | $342 | $321 | $264 | Above all SMAs. $100B Arizona investment is bullish catalyst |
| AVGO | $321 | $330 | $346 | $313 | Below 20/50-day. Must hold $313 (200-day) |
| VRT | $232 | $195 | $180 | $149 | Well above all SMAs post-earnings. Overbought RSI 71 |
| ANET | $139 | $138 | $133 | $125 | At SMA20, above 50/200-day. Neutral positioning |
| CRWD | $424 | $434 | $464 | $472 | Below all SMAs. Earnings Mar 3 — needs catalyst |
| ZS | $176 | $194 | $215 | $269 | Below all SMAs by wide margins. Earnings Feb 26 |
| PANW | $166 | $173 | $183 | $193 | Below all SMAs. Earnings today — binary event |
| CEG | $288 | $279 | $324 | $326 | Above 20-day, well below 50/200-day. Earnings today |
| CCJ | $112 | $121 | $106 | $83 | Above 50/200-day. Solid trend structure |
| LMT | $654 | $612 | $541 | $485 | Above all SMAs. Strongest defense prime technically |
| FCX | $62.15 | $61.80 | $55.41 | $45.13 | Above all SMAs. Grasberg Q2 restart approaching |
| ISRG | $485 | $505 | $542 | $516 | Below all SMAs. RSI 28 = extreme oversold |
| Sector | T1 Signal | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | Broad weakness | TSM −1.74%, NVDA −0.67%, VRT −1.14%. UBS downgrades US tech. TSM $100B Arizona bullish medium-term but rotation pressure today. |
| Cybersecurity | LDOS +4.75% | Split session — LDOS surging into earnings, rest soft. PANW and CEG earnings are today’s event. ZS at RSI 26 most oversold. |
| Nuclear Energy | Gave back gains | CEG −0.05%, VST −1.13%, LEU −1.27%. CEG earnings today. Palisades restart, Part 53, hyperscaler PPA flow remain catalysts. |
| Quantum Computing | Cooling | IONQ −0.82%, RGTI −2.49%. Cooling after Majorana-driven rally. Gold-based materials, carbon nanotube advances. Quantinuum IPO watch. |
| Defense | LMT +0.19% | Steady — primes grinding higher in risk-off tape. Classic defensive rotation. Europe military buildup narrative. LMT overbought RSI 73. |
| Space | Pulling back | LUNR −2.60%, RKLB −0.93%. Artemis II (Mar 6) approaching. Leonardo EO constellation. Space nuclear power bottleneck identified. |
| Energy Storage | Broad weakness | FLNC −1.90%, TSLA −1.04%. 2GWh Ukraine partnership positive but UK planning barriers threaten storage momentum. |
| Critical Minerals | Quiet | FCX −1.10%, MP −0.86%. Active exploration and M&A. Niger-Mali adjusting mining relationships. Grasberg Q2 restart on track. |
| Robotics | Quiet | CGNX RSI 89 extremely overbought. ISRG RSI 28 deeply oversold. Motor design and cobot workspace dominating news flow. |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today | PANW earnings — cyber platformization, RSI 33 oversold, binary event | PANW, CRWD, FTNT, ZS | Critical |
| Today | LDOS earnings — $46.2B backlog, NorthStar 2030, +4.75% pre-market | LDOS, CACI, BAH | High |
| Today | CEG earnings — largest nuclear fleet, Calpine deal, hyperscaler PPAs | CEG, VST, CCJ | High |
| Feb 25 | NVDA Q4 earnings — THE capex bellwether | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANET | Critical |
| Feb 25 | IonQ Q4 2025 earnings | IONQ | Medium |
| Feb 26 | ZS, RKLB, VST, MP earnings | ZS, RKLB, VST, MP | High |
| Feb 27 | SQM earnings | SQM | Medium |
| Mar 3 | CRWD earnings — Charlotte AI monetization | CRWD, PANW, ZS | High |
| Mar 4 | AVGO earnings | AVGO, NVDA | High |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch | LUNR, RKLB, LMT, NOC | Critical |
| Mar 27 | NRC Part 53 final rule | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | Palisades restart target | CEG, VST | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | TerraPower construction permit | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | AMD MI400 launch | AMD, NVDA | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | Cerebras IPO (Nasdaq) | AI sector | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | Freeport Grasberg restart | FCX, SCCO | High |
| H1 2026 | Quantinuum IPO | HON, IONQ | High |
| May 2026 | CIRCIA final rule (incident reporting) | Cybersecurity sector | Medium |
| Mid-2026 | SpaceX IPO (~$1.5T) | RKLB, PL, LUNR | High |
| H2 2026 | L3Harris Missile Solutions IPO | LHX | Medium |
| Nov 2026 | CMMC Phase 2 enforcement | LDOS, CACI, BAH | Medium |
| Nov 2026 | US-China trade agreement expiry | Critical minerals | Medium |
All three before-the-open earnings beat. PANW snaps back hard from RSI 33. Empire State Manufacturing holds above consensus. VIX reverses from 22.28 as hedging demand unwinds.
Earnings are mixed — one beat, one in-line, one mild miss. Market absorbs the results without a decisive move. VIX stays elevated at 21–23. Focus shifts to NVDA on Feb 25.
PANW misses at RSI 33, accelerating the cybersecurity de-rating. Empire State prints below zero. VIX pushes above 23. Gold and crypto continue selling off — broad deleveraging.