FOMC Meeting Minutes dominate at 7:00 PM ET. Durable goods, housing starts, industrial production, and a Bowman speech fill the slate. Meta’s massive Nvidia AI chip expansion and PANW’s −7% guidance miss are the pre-market narratives. Crude surges +2.9% on U.S.-Iran tensions; gold marches toward $5,000.
Large-cap tech leading with NQ +0.51% on the Meta-NVDA AI expansion deal while small-caps lag (RTY −0.03%). VIX pulling back below 20 into FOMC minutes is notable — markets not positioned for a hawkish surprise. Crude surging +2.9% on U.S.-Iran tensions is the standout. Gold at $4,972 inches toward $5,000 psychological resistance. Bitcoin struggling sub-$68K on institutional exits (Brevan Howard −30%, Founders Fund dumping ETHZilla).
Nikkei +1.02% to 57,144 — Japan led, buoyed by a surge in exports (up 17% in January, China shipments soaring). Hang Seng +0.52% despite Alibaba headwinds. Kospi −0.12% dragged by NAND/memory chip shortage concerns and a potential PS6 delay from Sony. Australia −0.72%.
Broad strength across the board. FTSE 100 hit new highs (+0.99%), aided by cooling UK CPI inflation boosting BoE rate cut odds. DAX +0.77% with German fiscal stimulus and defense spending supporting sentiment. STOXX 50 +1.15%. European governments accelerating digital sovereignty spending — defense/tech demand tailwind.
Global risk-on tone today — a reversal from yesterday’s risk-off. Japan export data strong, European equities broadly higher, UK inflation cooling supports rate cuts globally. Crude surge on Iran tensions adds geopolitical premium. NAND shortage narrative building (Phison CEO warning of shutdowns in 2026).
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1:30 PM | Core Durable Goods Orders m/m | 0.3% | Pending | Medium |
| 1:30 PM | Durable Goods Orders m/m | −1.8% | Pending | Medium |
| 1:30 PM | Building Permits | — | Pending | Low |
| 1:30 PM | Housing Starts | — | Pending | Low |
| 2:15 PM | Capacity Utilization Rate | 76.6% | Pending | Low |
| 2:15 PM | Industrial Production m/m | Pending | 0.4% | Low |
| 6:00 PM | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 7:00 PM | FOMC Meeting Minutes | — | — | HIGH |
| 9:00 PM | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 128.6B | Pending | Low |
| 9:30 PM | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | — | — | Low |
| Ticker | Sector | Time | What to Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| SEDG | Storage T2 | Before Open | At $37.26, above SMA200 ($29.68) suggesting recent recovery. Watch for guidance on U.S. BESS demand and European residential solar trends. Beaten-down name — results set the tone for energy storage sentiment. |
| Ticker | Sector | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| CDNS | Semis | +7.08% | Earnings beat — strong design automation demand. |
| CACI | Cyber T1 | +3.51% | Resilient business, strategic defense demand. RSI 30 oversold bounce. |
| SQM | Storage T1 | +3.33% | EV battery metals index at 27-month high. Lithium catching a bid. |
| SCCO | Minerals T2 | +3.19% | Copper strength, BHP deal flow. |
| PLTR | AI Infra T2 | +3.18% | AIP momentum, analyst note. |
| NVDA | AI Infra T1 | +2.00% | Meta expanded deal for millions of AI chips including standalone Grace CPUs. |
| PANW | Cyber T1 | −6.97% | Q3 profit guidance miss. Now well below SMA20 ($172), SMA50 ($182). RSI 31 — approaching deeply oversold. |
| BAYRY | Pharma | −9.93% | Mixed reaction to $7.25B Roundup settlement. |
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Move | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | Cyber | $152 | −6.97% | 31 | Sharpest single-day decline. Below SMA20 ($172), SMA50 ($182), SMA200 ($193) on guidance miss |
| CACI | Cyber | $584 | +3.51% | 30 | Strong bounce but RSI still deeply oversold at 30 — bounce within downtrend. Below SMA20 ($617), SMA50 ($591) |
| SQM | Storage | $74.81 | +3.33% | 33 | Oversold RSI bouncing on EV battery metals surge. Above SMA50 ($72.85), below SMA20 ($77.12) |
| ZS | Cyber | $172 | −0.38% | 19 | Most oversold T1. RSI 19 — extreme. $172 vs. SMA200 $269 (−36%). Earnings Feb 26 |
| FLNC | Storage | $17.88 | +0.56% | 27 | Deeply oversold. Well below SMA20 ($24.75) and SMA50 ($23.11) |
| LDOS | Cyber | $162 | Flat | 28 | Deeply oversold. Below all SMAs. Defense spending tailwind intact |
| LEU | Nuclear | $202 | +1.30% | 31 | Oversold. $202 vs. SMA20 $268 and SMA200 $237. Major pullback from highs |
| IONQ | Quantum | $33.59 | +1.22% | 29 | Deeply oversold. $33.59 vs. SMA200 $47.39 (−29%). Infleqtion NYSE listing catalyst |
| CGNX | Robotics | $57.07 | Flat | 83 | Overbought. 48% above SMA200 ($38.42). Reversal risk elevated |
| HON | Quantum | $243 | Flat | 77 | Elevated RSI. Quantinuum IPO anticipation lifting the stock |
| Sector | T1 Signal | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | Bullish | NVDA +2.00% on Meta deal expansion; VRT +1.39% (RSI 71, extended); TSM +1.12%; ANET −2.96% lagging. |
| Cybersecurity | Mixed | PANW −6.97% on guidance miss; CACI +3.51% on defense strength; ZS at RSI 19 (extreme oversold); CRWD −0.78%. |
| Defense & Aero | Steady | LHX +0.69%, LMT −0.10%, NOC +0.55%, RTX +0.20%. BAE Systems citing record order backlog. |
| Nuclear Energy | Quiet strength | CCJ +0.97%; VST +1.22%; CEG +0.26%. NRC granted TRISO-X HALEU license. World’s largest nuclear station agreement signed in Ontario. |
| Critical Minerals | Strong | SQM +3.33%; FCX +1.24%; SCCO +3.19%. EV battery metals index at 27-month high. BHP $4.3B silver streaming deal. Japan pledging $36B in US energy/minerals. |
| Energy Storage | Oversold bounce | SQM +3.33%; FLNC +0.56% (RSI 27); TSLA +0.47%. Australia commissioned 4.9 GWh grid batteries in 2025. Lydian $689M BESS financing. |
| Quantum Computing | Recovering | IONQ +1.22% (RSI 29, deeply oversold); HON −0.05% (RSI 77). Infleqtion goes public via SPAC raising $550M. Pasqal delivers Italy’s first neutral atom QPU. |
| Robotics | Bifurcated | CGNX flat (RSI 83, overbought); ISRG +0.42% (RSI 34, oversold); SYM +0.56%. IFR AI in robotics position paper. |
| Space | Steady | RKLB +2.06%; LUNR +1.32%; PL +1.13%. SpaceX unveils space traffic management system. UK caps launch liability. SatVu expanding with NATO backing. |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Today 7PM | FOMC Meeting Minutes — rate path language, balance sheet, inflation views | Broad market | Critical |
| Feb 24 | CEG earnings (before open) | CEG, VST, CCJ | High |
| Feb 25 | NVDA Q4 earnings — THE AI capex bellwether | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANET | Critical |
| Feb 26 | ZS, VST, RKLB, MP earnings | ZS, VST, RKLB, MP | High |
| Mar 3 | CRWD earnings — Charlotte AI monetization | CRWD, PANW, ZS | High |
| Mar 4 | AVGO earnings | AVGO, NVDA | High |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch | LUNR, RKLB, LMT, NOC | Critical |
| Mar 27 | NRC Part 53 final rule | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | AMD MI400 launch | AMD, NVDA | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | TerraPower construction permit | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | Denison Mines construction-ready | DNN | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | Cerebras IPO (Nasdaq) | AI sector | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | FCX Grasberg phased restart | FCX, SCCO | High |
| May 2026 | Vast Haven-1 launch | Space sector | Medium |
| Mid-2026 | SpaceX IPO (~$1.5T) | RKLB, PL, LUNR | High |
| H2 2026 | L3Harris Missile Solutions IPO | LHX | Medium |
FOMC minutes reveal dovish tilt — discussion of accelerating rate cuts, comfort with cooling inflation. Durable goods core beats. Meta-NVDA AI narrative sustains tech leadership all day.
FOMC minutes are balanced — no clear acceleration or deceleration of rate cut timeline. Market digests PANW guidance miss. Focus shifts to NVDA earnings next week.
FOMC minutes reveal hawkish dissent — concerns about persistent services inflation, rate cuts pushed back further. Iran tensions escalate, crude spikes above $65. PANW contagion spreads to broader tech.