Triple macro data dump (GDP + Core PCE + Flash PMIs), monthly options expiration, pending Supreme Court tariff ruling, and U.S.-Iran geopolitical risk. This is the heaviest calendar of the week. Position accordingly.
Risk-off posture into the data deluge. Gold pressing higher (+0.92% to $5,044) while equities drift lower — classic pre-event hedging. VIX above 20 (+1.38%) with OpEx creates potential for amplified intraday moves. Russell underperformance (−0.37% vs −0.12% SPX) signals risk appetite is weakest in the most economically sensitive segment. Bitcoin bouncing +1.30% off “extreme fear” sentiment. 10Y flat at 4.075% — bond market waiting for GDP/PCE data at 13:30.
Broad weakness. Nikkei −1.12% to 56,826 after Japan CPI dropped below the BOJ’s 2% target for the first time since March 2022 — raising questions about the BOJ’s tightening trajectory. Hang Seng −1.10% (flagged anomalous, z-score: −4.0), signaling continued HK/China risk aversion. Kospi +1.96% was the outlier, bucking the regional trend.
Mixed but constructive. CAC 40 +0.76% led (flagged anomalous, z-score: 3.3) as European defense and luxury names benefit from rearmament spending and weaker euro. FTSE +0.49%. DAX barely green at +0.10%. FEZ ETF at −0.40% reflects hedging ahead of US data.
Asia-Europe split — Asia sold off meaningfully (Nikkei −1.12%, HSI −1.10%) while Europe held green. Japan CPI miss could slow BOJ tightening, a potential macro shift. Hang Seng z-score of −4.0 is extreme — HK/China risk aversion is structural. Europe not in panic mode; defense/luxury support. Not a global risk-off rout.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| All Day | Monthly Options Expiration | — | — | Medium |
| 13:30 | Advance GDP q/q | 2.8% | 3.0% | HIGH |
| 13:30 | Core PCE Price Index m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% | HIGH |
| 13:30 | Advance GDP Price Index q/q | 2.8% | 2.0% | Medium |
| 13:30 | Personal Income m/m | 0.3% | 0.3% | Low |
| 13:30 | Personal Spending m/m | 0.4% | 0.5% | Low |
| 14:45 | Flash Manufacturing PMI | 52.4 | 51.9 | HIGH |
| 14:45 | Flash Services PMI | 53.0 | 52.5 | HIGH |
| 14:45 | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 15:00 | New Home Sales | — | 737K | Medium |
| 15:00 | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 56.9 | 57.3 | Low |
| 15:00 | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | — | 3.5% | Low |
| 17:45 | FOMC Member Logan Speaks | — | — | Low |
| Ticker | Sector | Date | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Nuclear T1 | Feb 24 (Mon) | Before Open |
| NVDA | AI Infra T1 | Feb 25 (Tue) | Before Open |
| ZS | Cyber T1 | Feb 26 (Wed) | Before Open |
| VST | Nuclear T1 | Feb 26 (Wed) | Before Open |
| RKLB | Space T2 | Feb 26 (Wed) | Before Open |
| MP | Minerals T1 | Feb 26 (Wed) | Before Open |
| CRWD | Cyber T1 | Mar 3 (Tue) | Before Open |
| AVGO | AI Infra T1 | Mar 4 (Wed) | Before Open |
| Ticker | Sector | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| LYV | — | +3.26% | Entertainment sector strength |
| TENB | Cyber T2 | +3.02% | Cheapest vuln management name at ~2.5x revenue |
| NOC | Defense T1 | Up | Northrop-Embraer KC-390 partnership targeting US market |
| BA | Defense T3 | Up | Boosting missile-tracking sensor production for military sats |
| DNN | Nuclear T3 | Up | Phoenix uranium project lands final permit (z-score: 5.3) |
| LAC | Minerals T3 | Up | Targets $1.6B financing for Thacker Pass build |
| AMZN | — | Up | Surpasses Walmart in annual revenue for first time |
| TM | — | −3.27% | Auto sector weakness |
| WSC | — | −3.84% | Modular construction selloff |
| BTDR | — | −17% | $300M convertible note offering — dilution fears |
| Ticker | Sector | RSI | Price vs SMAs | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | Cyber T1 | 29 | $151 vs SMA200 $193 | Oversold. 22% below 200d |
| ZS | Cyber T1 | 29 | $170 vs SMA200 $268 | Oversold. 37% below 200d. Earnings Feb 26 |
| IBM | Quantum T1 | 32 | $256 vs SMA200 $280 | Anomalous (z: −3.8) |
| FLNC | Storage T1 | 33 | $16.60 vs SMA200 $13.63 | Above 200d but weak momentum |
| CGNX | Robotics T1 | 75 | Well above all SMAs | Overbought. Extended |
| LMT | Defense T1 | 74 | $667 vs SMA200 $488 | Overbought. +37% above 200d |
| VRT | AI Infra T1 | 72 | $242 vs SMA200 $151 | Overbought. +60% above 200d |
| NOC | Defense T1 | 71 | $737 vs SMA200 $572 | Overbought. +29% above 200d |
| HON | Quantum T1 | 70 | $241 vs SMA200 $207 | Approaching overbought |
| Sector | Signal | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | Neutral | NVDA flat (−0.35%), VRT overbought (RSI 72). NVIDIA-OpenAI $30B investment talks dominate narrative. All eyes on NVDA earnings Feb 25. |
| Critical Minerals | Positive | RIO/Nemaska, LAC/$1.6B Thacker Pass, DNN permit — major capital deployment across lithium, uranium, copper. FCX Grasberg restart Q2. |
| Cybersecurity | Mixed | TENB +3.02% (T2). PANW and ZS deeply oversold (RSI 29). Escalating threat landscape (ATM jackpotting, PromptSpy Android malware, ransomware on clinics). |
| Defense & Aero | Positive | NOC/Embraer KC-390, BA satellite sensors. Primes overbought (LMT RSI 74, NOC RSI 71) but structurally supported by NATO rearmament and Golden Dome. |
| Energy Storage | Weak | FLNC RSI 33 (near oversold). SQM −1.53%. Sodium-ion battery narrative emerging as LFP challenger. |
| Nuclear Energy | Positive | DNN final permit (z-score 5.3). Illinois governor EO boosting nuclear. Westinghouse-Poland credit agreement. CEG earnings Monday. |
| Quantum Computing | Mixed | Federal lab access limits rattling sector. Tower/Xanadu industrializing silicon photonic stack. IBM oversold (RSI 32). |
| Robotics | Neutral | Toyota Canada deploying Agility Digit humanoid. 100+ Exotec robots in Swiss warehouse. CGNX overbought (RSI 75). |
| Space | Positive | Boeing boosting missile-tracking sensor production. Artemis II completing second fueling test (Mar 6 launch approaching). Starliner investigation flags NASA issues. |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 24-26 | Major watchlist earnings cluster — CEG, NVDA, ZS, VST, RKLB, MP | Multi-sector | Critical |
| Feb 24 | CEG earnings (before open) | CEG, VST | High |
| Feb 25 | NVDA Q4 earnings — THE AI capex bellwether | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT | Critical |
| Feb 26 | ZS, VST, RKLB, MP earnings | ZS, VST, RKLB, MP | High |
| Feb-Mar 2026 | Palisades nuclear restart (first US plant reactivated from decommissioning) | CEG, VST | High |
| Mar 3 | CRWD earnings | CRWD, ZS, PANW | High |
| Mar 4 | AVGO earnings | AVGO, NVDA | High |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch | LUNR, RKLB, LMT, NOC | Medium |
| Mar 27 | NRC Part 53 final rule (technology-inclusive licensing) | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | TerraPower construction permit expected | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | Denison Phoenix construction-ready | DNN | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | Freeport Grasberg phased restart | FCX | Medium |
| Mid-2026 | SpaceX IPO (~$1.5T) — sector-defining event | RKLB, PL, LUNR | High |
| Mid-2026 | NVIDIA Rubin architecture | NVDA, TSM | High |
GDP in-line or above 2.8% + Core PCE at 0.2% or below. Growth holds up while inflation cools. Flash PMIs confirm expansion. Rally into close.
GDP 2.7–2.9% + Core PCE 0.3%. Mild growth deceleration with sticky inflation. Market chops, no clear direction. Focus shifts to NVDA Tuesday.
GDP below 2.5% + Core PCE 0.4%+. Stagflation cocktail. VIX spikes, yields whipsaw, equities sell off into OpEx close. Supreme Court tariff ruling adds fuel.