Tariff regime reset dominates: Trump raises global tariffs to 15% after Supreme Court struck down prior framework. Gold surges past $5,100, crypto in “extreme fear,” VIX pops above 20. NVDA earnings Wednesday is the week’s defining event. KTOS and BWXT report before the open today.
Classic risk-off Monday. Gold screaming higher (+1.80% to fresh highs above $5,100) while equities, crypto, and yields all decline — the market is repricing growth and inflation simultaneously. VIX +6.44% to 20.32 is the loudest signal: implied vol resetting for the tariff regime change. Russell −0.51% underperformance confirms economically sensitive names taking the heaviest hit. DXY flat at 97.61 despite risk-off is notable — dollar weakness may reflect tariff uncertainty cutting both ways.
Divergent. Nikkei −1.12% to 56,826 and Kospi −1.34% — export-sensitive Asian markets pricing the 15% global tariff reset directly. Hang Seng +2.53% was the standout (flagged anomalous, z-score: 4.1), likely reflecting China leverage positioning ahead of the expected US-China summit. HSI strength diverges sharply from regional weakness.
Modest and mixed. DAX −0.53% as German exporters feel the tariff threat. Europe warns of “pure tariff chaos.” CAC flat, FTSE +0.19%. FEZ ETF +0.26% — Europe holding up better than Asia ex-China, suggesting tariff impact is perceived as more damaging to Asian supply chains.
Asia divergence is the story — Hang Seng +2.53% against Nikkei −1.12% and Kospi −1.34% is remarkable. China appears to be reading the tariff reset as potential leverage for a bilateral deal, while Japan/Korea face direct export headwinds. Europe modestly resilient; not a global panic rout. The tariff repricing is real but surgical.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | — | — | Medium |
| 15:00 | Factory Orders m/m | −0.4% | 2.7% | Low |
| Ticker | Sector | Time | Key Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| KTOS | Defense T2 | Before Open | Guiding 15–20% organic growth FY2026. CCA/drone pipeline, XQ-58A Valkyrie milestones |
| BWXT | Nuclear T2 | Before Open | $6B backlog, Navy reactor monopoly. INL/Nvidia Prometheus commentary |
| Ticker | Sector | Date | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Nuclear T1 | Tue 2/24 | Largest nuclear fleet. TMI restart + Calpine acquisition update |
| NVDA | AI Infra T1 | Wed 2/25 | THE event of the week. $650B hyperscaler capex cycle. DC growth +142% → +66% |
| ZS | Cyber T1 | Thu 2/26 | Pure-play zero trust at RSI 25 — deeply oversold into earnings |
| RKLB | Space T1 | Thu 2/26 | SDA contract pipeline, Neutron update, $1.3B+ defense backlog |
| VST | Nuclear T1 | Thu 2/26 | Meta 2,609 MW deal, 73–93% earnings growth guidance |
| Ticker | Sector | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVO | — | −14.85% | CagriSema failed head-to-head vs Lilly’s tirzepatide in REDEFINE 4 Phase III |
| LLY | — | +3.39% | Tirzepatide validated as superior obesity drug — $100B+ market cap transfer from NVO |
| IBRX | Biotech | +8.28% | Biotech catalyst |
| $VIX | Vol | +6.44% | Tariff regime repricing — institutional hedging demand |
| STEM | Storage T3 | −3.20% | Energy storage sector weakness |
| TSLA | Storage T1 | Down | EV sales cratering; sentiment headwind |
| MSTR | — | Down | BTC exposure headwind; added 592 BTC at $39.8M |
| GILD | — | Up | $7.8B cancer treatment acquisition signals pipeline confidence |
| Ticker | Sector | RSI | Price vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | Cyber T1 | 25 | $158 vs $268 | Extremely oversold. −41% below. Earnings Thu |
| PANW | Cyber T1 | 28 | $148 vs SMA200 | Deeply oversold. −23% below. Multi-year lows |
| FLNC | Storage T1 | 33 | $16.18 (+18% above) | RSI oversold but above SMA200. $5.5B backlog |
| IBM | Quantum T1 | 33 | $255 (−9% below) | Oversold. Below all major SMAs |
| IONQ | Quantum T1 | 35 | $31.23 (−34% below) | Oversold. Pre-earnings Feb 25 |
| CRWD | Cyber T1 | 36 | $385 (−18% below) | Post-outage recovery stalling |
| LEU | Nuclear T1 | 38 | $200 (−16% below) | HALEU monopoly selloff |
| CGNX | Robotics T1 | 75 | $55.58 (+42% above) | Overbought. Machine vision extended |
| HON | Quantum T1 | 73 | $244 (+18% above) | Overbought. Quantinuum IPO priced in |
| VRT | AI Infra T1 | 72 | $240 (+58% above) | Overbought. Power/cooling extremely extended |
| Sector | Signal | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | Cautious | NVDA +0.56% holding, but ANET −1.88%, VRT −1.52%, CRWV −2.91%. Capex ROI narrative is headwind. Wednesday earnings are everything. |
| Nuclear Energy | Mixed | CCJ −0.67%, CEG −0.59%, BWXT −1.29% ahead of earnings today. INL/Nvidia Prometheus headline positive. CEG tomorrow is key. |
| Cybersecurity | Weak | ZS (RSI 25), PANW (RSI 28), CRWD (RSI 36) — sector-wide oversold. ZS earnings Thursday could catalyze the group. |
| Defense & Aero | Resilient | LMT −0.79%, NOC +0.27%, RTX flat. Defense is the tariff-immune haven. KTOS earnings today. |
| Space | Weak | RKLB −2.62%, LUNR −2.96%, PL −1.67%. Texas Space $150M positive but not enough to offset risk-off. RKLB Thu. |
| Critical Minerals | Divergent | FCX −0.06% near highs (z-score: 4.1), copper deficit thesis intact. MP −0.87% below SMA200. BC approves Surge, Faraday targets BHP’s San Manuel. |
| Quantum Computing | Weak | IONQ −2.10% (RSI 35), QBTS −2.10%, QUBT −1.77%. IQM SPAC at $1.8B. Italy halted IBM’s $61M quantum contract. |
| Robotics | Mixed | SYK +1.12%, ISRG flat, SYM −1.44%, CGNX −0.80% (RSI 75, extended). Tariff risk to manufacturing. |
| Energy Storage | Weak | TSLA −1.04%, FLNC −2.24% (RSI 33), STEM −3.20%. Tesla EV cratering narrative. FRV 1.2GW/5GWh BESS in Spain positive. |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | NVDA Q4 earnings — $650B hyperscaler capex cycle hinges on guidance | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANET, MU, MRVL | Critical |
| Feb 26 | ZS, RKLB, VST earnings | ZS, RKLB, VST | High |
| Mar 3 | CRWD earnings | CRWD, S, PANW | High |
| Mar 4 | AVGO earnings | AVGO, MRVL | High |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch | LUNR, RKLB, PL, LMT, NOC | Medium |
| Mar 9 | Triple Witch positioning starts (T−9) | Broad market | Medium |
| Mar 17–18 | FOMC (SEP — first 2026 dot plot) | Broad market, rate-sensitive | Critical |
| Mar 20 | Triple Witch + S&P Rebalance ($5–6.5T notional) | Broad market | High |
| Mar 27 | NRC Part 53 final rule | SMR, OKLO, BWXT | Medium |
Waller dovish on rates, KTOS/BWXT beat expectations, market treats tariff reset as negotiating posture. NVDA positioning provides natural bid.
Market absorbs tariff reset, Waller non-committal. Tight range as institutions wait for NVDA Wednesday. Light calendar prevents a forced move.
Europe/Asia announce retaliatory tariffs. Waller leans hawkish ahead of March FOMC. VIX spikes above 22. Crypto liquidation cascade.