Consumer confidence, housing data, Richmond Fed, and six FOMC speakers make this a packed session. NVDA earnings tomorrow, AMD-Meta’s $100B AI chip deal reshapes the narrative, IBM posts worst day in 26 years on AI disruption, and crypto plunges. Jamie Dimon warns of “high anxiety.”
Equity futures barely positive — S&P essentially flat while Nasdaq edges higher on AMD’s massive rally. Bond market quiet with 10Y pinned at 4.03%. VIX +1.67% to 21.36 in elevated territory signals hedging demand remains firm. Dollar soft near 97.81, reflecting rate-cut repricing. Gold −0.96% from recent highs. The real story is crypto: Bitcoin −4.9% to $63K and ETH −5.2% — the “AI risk-off” trade bleeding into digital assets, with 400K+ BTC accumulated between $60–70K during this downturn.
Mixed. Nikkei +0.87% to 57,321 and Kospi surging +1.94% — South Korean rally likely reflecting semiconductor strength (Samsung/SK Hynix riding the AMD-Meta deal wave). Hang Seng −1.82% was the weak spot, falling on continued China growth concerns and broader tech selloff.
Slightly soft across the board. DAX −0.26%, CAC −0.05%, FTSE −0.08%. European markets digesting the Supreme Court tariff ruling that throws trade policy into flux, with EU threatening retaliation. STOXX 50 −0.50% but broader IEV +0.50% — mega-cap vs mid-cap divergence.
Asia semiconductor bid is the story — Kospi +1.94% surge reflects the AMD-Meta deal validation rippling through Asian chip supply chains. Hang Seng −1.82% divergence shows China growth remains the outlier concern. Europe tepid but not panicking; tariff uncertainty weighing but contained. Dollar weakness at 97.81 reflects the broader rate-cut repricing narrative.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:00 | FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 13:20 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | Pending | Low |
| 14:00 | FOMC Member Bostic Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 14:00 | HPI m/m | 0.3% | Pending | Low |
| 14:00 | S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y | 1.3% | Pending | Low |
| 14:15 | FOMC Member Waller Speaks | — | — | Medium |
| 14:30 | FOMC Member Cook Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 15:00 | CB Consumer Confidence | 87.4 | Pending | Medium |
| 15:00 | Richmond Manufacturing Index | −8 | Pending | Medium |
| 15:00 | Final Wholesale Inventories m/m | Pending | 0.2% | Low |
| 20:20 | FOMC Members Collins & Barkin Speak | — | — | Low |
| 21:30 | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | — | — | Low |
| Ticker | Sector | Time | Key Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| CEG | Nuclear T1 | Before Open | Largest nuclear fleet. Outlook is key focus (per Barron’s). Watch for hyperscaler PPA commentary and Calpine acquisition updates. |
| Ticker | Sector | Date | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | AI Infra T1 | Wed 2/25 | THE event of the week. $650B hyperscaler capex cycle. AMD-Meta deal sets up interesting read-through. |
| ZS | Cyber T1 | Thu 2/26 | RSI 19 — extreme oversold into earnings. Binary outcome for cyber names. |
| RKLB | Space T2 | Thu 2/26 | SDA contract pipeline update. $1.3B+ backlog validation. |
| VST | Nuclear T1 | Thu 2/26 | Meta nuclear PPA revenue ramp commentary. |
| MP | Minerals T1 | Thu 2/26 | NdPr production trajectory, magnet revenue inflection. |
| Ticker | Sector | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMD | AI Infra T3 | +9.60% | Meta strikes landmark $100B AI chip deal incl. up to 160M AMD shares and 6GW commitment |
| BWXT | Nuclear T2 | +7.37% | Strong move; defense/nuclear spending momentum |
| IBM | Quantum T1 | −11-13% | Worst day in 26 years. Anthropic COBOL AI threatens legacy services. RSI 23 — deeply oversold. |
| KTOS | Defense T2 | −3.19% | Pullback after recent strength. No specific negative catalyst. |
| HIMS | — | −5.22% | Earnings disappoint investors |
| HD | — | Up | Home Depot tops earnings for first time in a year |
| NVO/LLY | — | Down | GLP-1 pricing pressure; Ozempic price-cut plan announced |
| CEG | Nuclear T1 | Up | Rises after earnings report this morning |
| TSLA | Storage T1 | −0.56% | Europe sales worsening; suing California DMV over FSD ruling |
| IONQ | Quantum T1 | Up | Selected for Missile Defense Agency SHIELD IDIQ contract |
| ASTS | — | Up | $30M military broadband demo + SDA satellite-to-radio contract |
| Ticker | Sector | RSI | Price vs SMAs | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | Cyber T1 | 19 | $145 — 46% below SMA200 | Extreme oversold. Lowest RSI on watchlist. Earnings Thu. |
| IBM | Quantum T1 | 23 | $224 — 20% below SMA200 | Extreme oversold. Unprecedented AI disruption crash. |
| PANW | Cyber T1 | 25 | $144 — 13% below SMA20, 19% below SMA50 | Deeply oversold. AI disruption fears hitting all cyber. |
| CRWD | Cyber T1 | 28 | $350 — 17% below SMA20, 23% below SMA50 | Deeply oversold. Software selloff driven by AI fears. |
| FLNC | Storage T1 | 32 | $16.01 — 30% below SMA20/SMA50 | Compressed. Oversold RSI. |
| LEU | Nuclear T1 | 38 | $199 — below all major SMAs | Pulled back sharply from highs. |
| VRT | AI Infra T1 | 72 | $245 — 60% above SMA200 | Overbought. Strongest relative strength on Tier 1. |
| CGNX | Robotics T1 | 76 | $56.47 — 44% above SMA200 | Overbought. Industrial automation recovery play. |
| LMT | Defense T1 | 70 | $661 — 35% above SMA200 | Near overbought. Defense supercycle beneficiary. |
| Sector | Signal | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | Mixed-Bullish | AMD +9.6% on $100B Meta deal; TSM +2.4%; ASML EUV breakthrough. But IBM −13% on AI disruption fears creates two-sided narrative. NVDA earnings tomorrow. |
| Cybersecurity | Bearish / OS | ZS RSI 19, PANW RSI 25, CRWD RSI 28. Capitulation-level readings — watch for reversal setup. |
| Defense & Aero | Bullish | Pentagon $152B FY26 plan; B-21 production ramp; LMT AI-equipped F-35. LMT/NOC trending strong. KTOS −3.2% outlier. |
| Nuclear Energy | Bullish | BWXT +7.4% standout. CEG earnings today. TRISO pebble fuel study advances. Sector may offer entry points. |
| Critical Minerals | Bullish | FCX at 52-week highs, ALB strong (z-score 3.3). Century Lithium $4B, Faraday $100M BHP deal, Sweden reopens uranium. |
| Energy Storage | Neutral-Bear | TSLA −0.6% Europe sales weakness. FLNC compressed at RSI 32. US BESS 70GWh forecast for 2026. |
| Quantum Computing | Mixed | IONQ wins Missile Defense SHIELD contract (bullish); IBM crash drags quantum-via-IBM play. Cloudflare PQC rollout. |
| Robotics | Neutral | CGNX overbought at RSI 76. SYM flat. No major catalysts today. Industrial cycle recovery thesis intact. |
| Space | Constructive | ASTS wins $30M military demo + SDA satellite contract. Space Force expansion push. |
| Crypto | Bearish | BTC −4.9% to $63K, ETH −5.2%. Broad altcoin losses. Institutional $60–70K accumulation is the floor. |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 | NVDA earnings — sets tone for entire AI infrastructure theme. $650B hyperscaler capex narrative depends on guidance. | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANET, MU, MRVL | Critical |
| Feb 26 | ZS earnings — RSI 19 into earnings. Binary outcome for oversold cyber names. | ZS, PANW, CRWD | High |
| Feb 26 | RKLB, VST, MP earnings — Space, Nuclear, Minerals all reporting. | RKLB, VST, MP | High |
| Mar 3 | CRWD earnings — RSI 28, FY2027 guidance critical for oversold bounce case. | CRWD, S, PANW | High |
| Mar 4 | AVGO earnings — XPU/custom silicon update alongside NVDA read-through. | AVGO, MRVL | High |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch — Sentiment catalyst for space sector. | LUNR, RKLB, PL, LMT | Medium |
| Mar 17–20 | FOMC + Triple Witch + S&P Rebalance — Major convergence event. First 2026 dot plot (Mar 18). CME: 60% hold / 38% cut. | Broad market | Critical |
| Q1 2026 | AMD MI400 launch — today’s Meta deal adds urgency to NVIDIA GPU competition. | AMD, NVDA | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | FCX Grasberg restart — most important near-term copper catalyst. | FCX | Medium |
AMD-Meta deal reads as total AI market expansion (not NVDA share loss), consumer confidence beats 87.4, dovish Waller comments pull rate cuts forward.
AMD rally offsets IBM crash. Consumer confidence in line. Six FOMC speakers provide no clear signal. Market treads water ahead of NVDA.
IBM crash spreads to broader software on AI disruption fears. Consumer confidence misses badly. Crypto breaks $60K. Hawkish Fed commentary.