NVIDIA earnings day. The most consequential single-stock event of the quarter lands before the open, with options pricing the smallest post-earnings swing in three years. Three FOMC speakers on deck, crude oil inventories, and Trump spoke overnight. Crypto rebounding sharply. Stay sharp.
Green across the board ahead of NVIDIA. Small caps leading at +0.69%, signaling risk appetite returning. VIX −2.76% to 19.01 — elevated but declining, constructive into NVDA. Gold continues its relentless grind above $5,200. Crypto is the standout: BTC +5.06% and ETH +7.33% rebounding sharply from oversold levels. Yields dead flat; DXY steady near 97.8. The 2s/10s curve at +60 bps remains consistent with eventual easing cycle pricing.
Nikkei surged +2.20% to 58,583 — a significant move flagged as anomalous (z-score 5.7). Broad-based risk-on sentiment ahead of NVIDIA earnings. Hang Seng +0.66%, KOSPI +0.86%, and Australia +1.42% on commodity strength. Positive tone across the region.
Mild green open across the continent. DAX +0.42%, CAC +0.43%, FTSE +0.56%. HSBC +4.5% after revenue topped estimates despite a 7% pretax profit decline. Europe’s defense spending narrative continues — now 21% of global total, led by Germany.
Nikkei +2.2% is the headline — z-score 5.7 makes this a statistically extreme move. The global risk-on tone ahead of NVIDIA is consistent across regions: Asia strong, Europe mildly positive. HSBC revenue beat despite profit decline shows financial sector resilience. Defense spending momentum in Europe remains a multi-quarter theme. No negative divergences in any major market.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pre-market | NVDA Q4 FY2026 Earnings | — | — | Critical |
| Pre-market | IONQ Earnings | — | — | Medium |
| 02:00 AM | President Trump Speaks | — | — | High |
| 14:30 | FOMC Member Barkin Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 15:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | +1.8M bbl | −9.0M bbl | Low |
| 16:00 | FOMC Member Schmid Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 18:20 | FOMC Member Musalem Speaks | — | — | Low |
| Ticker | Sector | Time | Key Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | AI Infra T1 | Before Open | THE event of the quarter. Options imply smallest post-earnings swing in 3 years. Sets tone for entire AI infrastructure theme. |
| IONQ | Quantum T1 | Before Open | Validates FY2025 guidance ($106–110M) and provides 2026 outlook. Quantum pure-play bellwether. |
| Ticker | Sector | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| CAVA | — | +9.96% | Surprise same-store sales growth driven by menu prices |
| ALB | Storage T1 | +8.30% | Anomalous surge (z-5.7). Price 98% above SMA200. Extended but strong momentum. |
| PYPL | — | ~+7% | Stripe reportedly weighing PayPal acquisition |
| KOS | — | +4.93% | Ghana extension brings renewed stability |
| HSBC | — | +4.47% | Revenue beat despite 7% pretax profit decline |
| RIOT | — | +3.64% | BTC rebound +5% lifting miners |
| USAR | Minerals T2 | +3.38% | Pentagon AI setting mineral reference prices for gallium/germanium |
| STEM | Storage T3 | +3.32% | Sector sympathy with energy storage names |
| MQ | — | −10.58% | Marqeta decline |
| WDAY | — | −9.01% | Weak revenue guidance sinks stock |
| HPQ | — | −5.49% | Forecasts earnings at low end citing memory-price surge |
| LOW | — | −3.60% | Dip despite earnings beat; management warns of “ongoing uncertainty” |
| LCID | — | −3.23% | Widely misses earnings expectations |
| Ticker | Sector | RSI | Price vs SMAs | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PANW | Cyber T1 | 24 | $142 — 26% below SMA200 ($192) | Most oversold on watchlist. Deepest discount to SMA200 in cyber. |
| ZS | Cyber T1 | 26 | $150 — 44% below SMA200 ($267) | Extreme oversold. Reports tomorrow (Feb 26). Binary outcome. |
| IBM | Quantum T1 | 27 | $229 — 18% below SMA200 ($280) | Oversold. Unusual weakness for diversified mega-cap. |
| CRWD | Cyber T1 | 28 | $350 — 26% below SMA200 ($471) | Deeply oversold. Reports Mar 3 — maximum pessimism territory. |
| ALB | Minerals T1 | 62 | $202 — 98% above SMA200 ($102) | +8.3% anomalous surge. Extended but momentum strong. z-5.7. |
| FCX | Minerals T1 | 65 | $69.30 — 51% above SMA200 ($46) | Anomalous (z-5.0). Copper deficit thesis playing out. |
| TSM | AI Infra T1 | 71 | $390 — 44% above SMA200 ($270) | Extended. Anomalous (z-5.7). Strength into NVDA. |
| VRT | AI Infra T1 | 75 | $253 — 64% above SMA200 ($154) | Approaching overbought. Backlog-driven strength. |
| CGNX | Robotics T1 | 78 | $57.88 — 47% above SMA200 ($39.28) | Most overbought on list. Cyclical recovery priced in aggressively. |
| Sector | Signal | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | Neutral/Bullish | All eyes on NVDA earnings. TSM +1.1%, NVDA +0.75% pre-market. Sambanova SN50 claims 3x efficiency vs B200. AMD secures Meta megadeal. |
| Cybersecurity | Oversold | CRWD RSI 28, PANW RSI 24, ZS RSI 26. Sector deeply beaten down. ZS reports tomorrow. |
| Critical Minerals | Strong | ALB +8.3% (anomalous), FCX +2.1%, USAR +3.4%. Pentagon AI mineral pricing for gallium/germanium. Tungsten supply crunch. |
| Defense & Aero | Steady | LMT, RTX, NOC flat. Europe defense to 21% of global total. Ursa Major HAVOC hypersonic unveiled. Counter-UAS marketplace. |
| Energy Storage | Bullish | ALB +8.3%, SQM +1.9%, ENPH +2.5%, STEM +3.3%. Battery storage M&A attractive. 400MWh BESS in Australia. |
| Nuclear Energy | Constructive | CCJ flat, VST +0.3% (reports tomorrow). California bill seeks advanced nuclear exception. Wheeler River approved. |
| Quantum Computing | Constructive | IONQ +2.0% (reports today), QBTS +1.8%. SoftBank/HorizonX join Singapore quantum hub. Amazon Braket expands Qiskit. |
| Robotics | Mixed | CGNX RSI 78 (overbought). AI2 Robotics Series B. Germany warned losing ground in robotics race. |
| Space | Constructive | RKLB +2.3% (reports tomorrow), PL +1.5%, LUNR +1.1%. Military space funding banner year. |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 25 (TODAY) | NVDA Q4 FY2026 earnings — the most consequential single-stock event of the quarter. Sets tone for entire AI infrastructure theme. | NVDA, TSM, AVGO, VRT, ANET | Critical |
| Feb 25 (TODAY) | IONQ earnings — Quantum pure-play validates FY2025 guidance and 2026 outlook. | IONQ, HON, IBM | High |
| Feb 26 | ZS earnings — RSI 26 into earnings. Binary outcome for oversold cyber names. | ZS, PANW, CRWD | High |
| Feb 26 | VST earnings — Nuclear energy bellwether. Meta PPA revenue ramp commentary. | VST, CEG | High |
| Feb 26 | RKLB earnings — Space sector validation. SDA contract pipeline update. | RKLB, PL, LUNR | High |
| Feb 26 | MP earnings — Critical minerals production trajectory, magnet revenue inflection. | MP, LYSCF, USAR | Medium |
| Mar 3 | CRWD earnings — RSI 28, deeply oversold. FY2027 guidance critical for bounce case. | CRWD, PANW, FTNT | High |
| Mar 4 | AVGO earnings — XPU/custom silicon update alongside NVDA read-through. | AVGO, NVDA, TSM | High |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch — Sentiment catalyst for space sector. | LUNR, RKLB, PL | Medium |
| Mar 17–20 | FOMC + Triple Witch + S&P Rebalance — Major convergence event. First 2026 dot plot (Mar 18). | Broad market | Critical |
| Q1 2026 | AMD MI400 launch — GPU competition heats up after Meta deal. | AMD, NVDA | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | TerraPower construction permit — Nuclear energy milestone. | OKLO, SMR | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | Cerebras IPO — AI infrastructure sector expansion. | CRWV | Medium |
NVDA delivers a beat-and-raise quarter. Strong guidance validates the $650B hyperscaler capex cycle. The smallest implied options move in 3 years gets blown past to the upside.
NVDA meets expectations with guidance roughly in line. Options market was right about a smaller swing. Market digests and rotates.
NVDA disappoints on guidance or reveals datacenter demand deceleration. Goldman’s “AI boosted economy by basically zero” thesis gains traction. Options complacency creates outsized downside.