Morning Brief — Thursday, February 26, 2026

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Overnight / Global

Asia Session

Mixed overnight. Hang Seng −1.44% was the laggard, digesting China tech regulatory concerns. KOSPI surged +3.04% — worth monitoring for Samsung/SK Hynix semiconductor sentiment. Nikkei +0.29%, drifting modestly higher.

Europe Session

Continental Europe green across the board. CAC 40 led at +0.92%, DAX +0.42%, FTSE +0.26%. Rolls-Royce +4.67% after raising guidance and announcing up to $12B in buybacks on strong engine demand. Defense and industrial names benefit from the rearmament narrative.

Key Global Reads

KOSPI +3.04% is the headline — driven by semiconductor sentiment spillover from NVIDIA results. Hang Seng diverging negatively at −1.44% on China tech concerns. Europe steady — Rolls-Royce buyback signals industrial confidence. The Asia divergence (Korea strong, China weak) reflects the AI/semi vs. regulatory risk bifurcation.

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Today’s Calendar

3 Events + 8 Earnings

Time (ET)	Release	Consensus	Prior	Significance
Before Open	8 Watchlist Earnings (ZS, RKLB, VST, MP, LYSCF, ESTC, TLN, UUUU)	—	—	Critical
13:30	Unemployment Claims	217K	206K	High
15:00	FOMC Member Bowman Speaks	—	—	Low
15:30	Natural Gas Storage	−36B	−144B	Low

Weekly claims at 13:30 ET are the macro swing factor. Consensus 217K vs. prior 206K. A significant beat or miss could move rate expectations ahead of the March 17–18 FOMC meeting (first 2026 dot plot, CME pricing: 60% hold / 38% cut). Bowman at 15:00 is low-impact unless she deviates from recent hawkish signals. Nat gas storage draw expected at −36B, a significant narrowing from last week’s −144B.

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Thesis Watchlist

9 Sectors · 8 Reporting

Earnings Reporting Today (Before Open)

Ticker	Sector	RSI	Key Watch
ZS	Cyber T1	32	Deeply oversold at $156 vs SMA200 $267. Pure-play zero trust leader with $3.2B+ ARR. Critical test of AI-driven cyber spending. Binary outcome.
RKLB	Space T1	45	Space sector bellwether. At $70.88, below SMA20 ($73.73) and SMA50 ($76.22). $1.33B+ in SDA contracts. Neutron development progress is the key question.
VST	Nuclear T1	60	At $178 vs SMA200 $181. Meta 2,609 MW nuclear deal provides 20-year visibility. Guiding 73–93% earnings growth in 2026.
MP	Minerals T1	48	At $59.35, hovering at SMA20/SMA50. Record NdPr production (721 MT Q3). DOD largest shareholder. Magnet revenue ramp is the catalyst.
LYSCF	Minerals T1	64	At $12.54, above all MAs. Revenue doubling expected FY2026. Already +3.60% pre-market. Largest non-Chinese REE producer.
ESTC	Cyber T2	—	At $56.50, below SMA200 ($80.65). CISA $26M contract (potential $130M). Open-source SIEM differentiation.
TLN	Nuclear T2	—	At $388, above SMA200 ($354). Amazon $18B nuclear PPA provides extraordinary revenue visibility. Strong Buy consensus.
UUUU	Nuclear T2	—	At $22.75, above SMA200 ($13.74). Dual uranium/REE play with $1B war chest. Commercial Dy/Tb production targeted Q4 2026.

One of the heaviest watchlist earnings days in recent memory — 8 names across 4 sectors. Results from ZS and RKLB will set sector tone for cybersecurity and space. VST and TLN test the nuclear/hyperscaler power thesis directly. MP and LYSCF validate the critical minerals production ramp narrative.

Pre-Market Movers

Ticker	Sector	Move	Catalyst
NTNX	—	+18.52%	AMD strategic investment creates “halo effect”; demand running into supply constraints
IONQ	Quantum T1	+15.12%	First quantum company to surpass $100M annual revenue; sales accelerating
QBTS	Quantum T3	+5.39%	Quantum sympathy play with IONQ; Advantage2 momentum
RYCEY	—	+4.67%	Raised outlook, up to $12B buyback on strong engine demand
RPD	Cyber T3	+3.64%	Bounce from deep oversold levels (RSI was in low 30s)
LYSCF	Minerals T1	+3.60%	Earnings today; largest non-Chinese REE producer
STEM	Storage T3	+3.52%	Energy management platform gaining traction
RDW	Space T3	−7.08%	In-space manufacturing pullback; well below SMA200 ($10.66)
CRM	—	−4%	Mixed guidance despite $50B buyback commitment
STLA	—	Down	First annual loss in company history; EV writedowns
AMD	AI Infra	−1.26%	Investors doubt OpenAI spending plans; partially offset by $100B Meta deal

Thesis flags: IONQ +15.12% (Quantum T1) is the standout — first pure-play quantum company to surpass $100M annual revenue. LYSCF +3.60% (Minerals T1) pops ahead of earnings. RDW −7.08% (Space T3) extends selloff well below SMA200. NVDA reaction muted despite record $215B annual revenue — buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news fatigue at these valuations.

Notable Tier 1 RSI Extremes & Key Moves

Ticker	Sector	RSI	Price vs SMAs	Signal
PANW	Cyber T1	29	$145 — 24.5% below SMA200 ($192)	Most oversold Tier 1 name. CyberArk acquisition integration is the question.
ZS	Cyber T1	32	$156 — 42% below SMA200 ($267)	Deeply oversold; reports today. High-risk/high-reward binary setup.
IBM	Quantum T1	33	$239 — below all MAs	Oversold. $1B+ quantum revenue and Qiskit platform dominance being ignored.
CRWD	Cyber T1	34	$362 — below all major MAs	Deeply oversold. ZS results today could set the tone for Mar 3 CRWD earnings.
FLNC	Storage T1	34	$16.05 — below SMA20 and SMA50	Oversold. $5.5B record backlog at odds with price action.
IONQ	Quantum T1	41	$38.67 — still below SMA50 ($43.14) and SMA200 ($47.48)	+15.12% on $100M revenue milestone. Watch for follow-through.
TSM	AI Infra T1	72	$390 — +43.9% above SMA200	Approaching overbought. Foundry monopoly repricing continues.
VRT	AI Infra T1	77	$263 — +70.8% above SMA200 ($154)	Overbought. $9.5B backlog is real but RSI 77 suggests extended.

Key observation: Cybersecurity remains deeply oversold — PANW (29), ZS (32), CRWD (34), IBM (33). ZS reports today — this is the sector-defining event. On the other end, AI infrastructure is extended — VRT RSI 77, TSM RSI 72. NVIDIA’s muted post-earnings response despite record results highlights the valuation fatigue at the top of the stack.

Key Technical Levels

Support / Strength

NVDA $198 · +5.9% above SMA20; buy zone above all MAs
S&P 6,963 · Flat; holding post-NVDA. SMA200 well below at ~$6,530
FCX $68.77 · +49.2% above SMA200; strong copper uptrend
CCJ $120 · +39.7% above SMA200; healthy uranium uptrend

Risk Triggers

VIX 20 · Break above signals regime shift from current 17.75
10Y 4.10% · Break higher on claims data would pressure equities
WTI $62–63 · Approaching support; break lower signals demand concerns
CRWD $362 · Below all MAs; RSI 34. ZS results today set the tone

Sector Snapshot

Sector	Signal	Summary
AI Infrastructure	Neutral	NVDA record $215B revenue but muted response reflects valuation fatigue. VRT overbought RSI 77. TSM +0.68% approaching overbought.
Cybersecurity	Oversold	PANW RSI 29, ZS RSI 32, CRWD RSI 34. ZS/ESTC earnings today are make-or-break for the entire sector.
Nuclear Energy	Constructive	VST leads +1.71% ahead of earnings. Three nuclear names (VST, TLN, UUUU) reporting today test the hyperscaler PPA thesis directly.
Critical Minerals	Strong	LYSCF +3.60% pre-earnings. CENX US aluminum smelter signals reshoring. Chipmaker rare earth shortages persist.
Defense & Aero	Steady	Quiet for primes. Space Force Vulcan pause notable for RKLB. Army 155mm production lag at Mesquite headwind for GD.
Quantum Computing	Breakout	IONQ +15.12% on $100M revenue milestone — sector-defining moment. PQC adoption accelerating (Keeper + QuSecure).
Energy Storage	Mixed	Form Energy/Google 30GWh iron-air deal is a milestone. FLNC oversold RSI 34 despite $5.5B backlog. SQM reports tomorrow.
Robotics	Quiet	Alphabet folds Intrinsic back into Google for “physical AI.” Wayve raises $1.2B from NVIDIA/Microsoft/Uber.
Space	Focus	RKLB earnings today are the main event. Space Force Vulcan pause creates near-term uncertainty. RDW −7% extends selloff.

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Approaching Catalysts

Next 30 Days

Date	Catalyst	Tickers	Priority
TODAY	8 watchlist earnings — ZS, RKLB, VST, MP, LYSCF, ESTC, TLN, UUUU. Sets tone across cybersecurity, space, nuclear, and minerals.	ZS, RKLB, VST, MP +4 more	Critical
TODAY	Weekly Claims 13:30 ET — 217K consensus vs. 206K prior. Rate expectation swing factor ahead of March FOMC.	Broad market	High
Feb 27	SQM earnings (before open) — lowest-cost global lithium producer. Storage sector read-through.	SQM, ALB	Medium
Mar 3	CrowdStrike earnings — RSI 34, deeply oversold. FY2027 guidance will be the key focus.	CRWD, PANW, FTNT	High
Mar 4	Broadcom earnings — custom silicon demand validation alongside NVDA read-through.	AVGO, NVDA, TSM	High
Mar 6	Artemis II launch — lunar sentiment catalyst for space names.	LUNR, RKLB, PL	Medium
Mar 9	Triple Witch positioning begins — T−9 before Mar 20 expiration.	Broad market	Medium
Mar 17–20	FOMC + Triple Witch + S&P Rebalance — First 2026 dot plot (Mar 18) + $5–6.5T notional expiration (Mar 20). Key convergence date.	Broad market	Critical
Mar 27	NRC Part 53 final rule — technology-inclusive licensing framework for advanced reactors.	SMR, OKLO, VST	Medium
Q2 2026	Cerebras IPO (Nasdaq) — inference silicon market validation.	CRWV	Medium
Q2 2026	Freeport Grasberg restart — most important near-term copper catalyst.	FCX	High
Mid-2026	SpaceX IPO — sector-defining for all space names.	RKLB, PL, LUNR	High

Today is the heaviest watchlist earnings day. Then CRWD on Mar 3 and AVGO on Mar 4 keep pressure elevated. The FOMC convergence event March 17–20 (first dot plot + Triple Witch) looms 3 weeks out. Positioning starts Mar 9 — strategic window opens soon.

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Scenario Analysis

Heavy Day

Bull Case — Watchlist Earnings Beat, Claims Soft, Risk-On Broadens ~25%

ZS delivers a beat-and-raise, validating AI-driven cyber spending. RKLB surprises with Neutron progress. VST confirms nuclear thesis. Claims come in above consensus (softer labor), reigniting rate cut hopes.

ZS beats on ARR and guidance — cyber sector relief rally lifts PANW, CRWD, ESTC from deeply oversold levels
RKLB surprises with Neutron development milestone or accelerated SDA contract wins; space names rally in sympathy
VST confirms 73–93% earnings growth guidance; nuclear/hyperscaler power thesis validated
Claims print above 220K — softening labor market reignites rate cut expectations for June/July
IONQ +15% momentum carries through; quantum sector breakout accelerates
Crypto extends rally — BTC pushes toward $70K, ETH above $2,100
VIX breaks below 17 into constructive territory
S&P pushes above 7,000 as breadth expands with small caps leading

Base Case — Mixed Results, Market Digests, Sector Rotation ~45%

Some watchlist names beat, some miss. Claims roughly in-line. NVIDIA’s muted response pattern continues. Market rotates rather than trends.

ZS and RKLB deliver mixed results — sector reactions are stock-specific rather than broad
VST/TLN meet expectations; nuclear thesis intact but not exciting enough for a breakout
Claims near consensus at 215–220K — no rate expectation change
NVDA continues to digest record quarter; AI infrastructure flat to mildly positive
Critical minerals hold gains as LYSCF and MP deliver solid production numbers
VIX stays in 17–19 range; normal regime maintained
SPX holds 6,950–6,980 range; no decisive directional move
Market attention shifts to CRWD (Mar 3) and AVGO (Mar 4) as next catalysts

Bear Case — Earnings Disappoint, Claims Strong, Risk-Off Cascade ~30%

ZS misses, confirming cybersecurity spending slowdown. RKLB guidance disappoints on Neutron delays. Claims print below 210K, reinforcing “higher for longer.” NVIDIA muted response spills over as market questions AI spending ROI.

ZS misses on guidance or ARR growth — cybersecurity selloff deepens; PANW and CRWD break to new lows
RKLB disappoints on Neutron timeline or revenue guidance — space sector sells off; RDW −7% was the leading indicator
Claims print below 210K — strong labor market cements “higher for longer”; 10Y breaks above 4.10%
NVIDIA muted response + CRM −4% pattern spreads — market punishing even good results at elevated valuations
Oil weakness extends below $63 — demand concern narrative gains traction
VIX spikes above 19–20; regime shift signal
Supreme Court tariff ruling uncertainty compounds the risk-off; trade deal concerns escalate
SPX loses 6,950 and tests 6,900 support; Nasdaq underperforms

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Today’s Playbook

Bias: NEUTRAL with cautious undertone — Futures flat, NVIDIA’s muted response to record results signals valuation fatigue, 8 watchlist earnings create maximum uncertainty, and claims data at 13:30 is the macro swing factor. The day will be defined by earnings reactions, not macro direction.

Watch For

ZS earnings (before open): RSI 32, deeply oversold at $156 vs SMA200 $267. This is THE cybersecurity event. A beat-and-raise could spark a sector-wide relief rally; a miss confirms the spending slowdown narrative.
RKLB earnings (before open): Space sector bellwether. $1.33B+ in SDA contracts. Neutron development progress and revenue guidance are the key items.
VST + TLN earnings: Direct test of the nuclear/hyperscaler power thesis. VST’s Meta 2,609 MW deal and TLN’s Amazon $18B PPA provide the revenue visibility — guidance is what matters.
Claims at 13:30: Consensus 217K vs prior 206K. A miss (higher) reignites rate cut hopes; a strong print extends “higher for longer.” Watch 10Y reaction at 4.048%.
NVDA post-earnings digestion: Muted response to record $215B revenue is a key signal. If the market can’t rally on blowout AI earnings, what can it rally on?
IONQ follow-through: +15.12% on $100M revenue milestone. Watch for sustained buying above SMA20 ($35.20) vs. fade back below.
Oil breakdown watch: WTI at $64.07, down −2%. If it breaks $62–63 support, demand concern narrative accelerates.
Crypto continuation: BTC +3% and ETH +5.7% need to hold gains. Altcoin bounce (DOT +17%, UNI +15%) is the strongest in weeks.

Risks to Manage

Earnings concentration risk: 8 watchlist names across 4 sectors reporting simultaneously. Bad results from ZS or RKLB could cascade across entire sector groups.
NVIDIA muted response spillover: If even blowout AI earnings can’t lift the market, sentiment risk for the broader AI trade intensifies.
Oil weakness: WTI −2% to $64.07 suggests either macro demand concerns or Iran supply expectations. Watch for follow-through below $63.
Tariff uncertainty: Supreme Court ruling upending tariff authority creates trade deal uncertainty. Background risk that could escalate.
Geopolitical cluster: Hungary-Ukraine energy tensions, Iran nuclear talks, Russia-Cuba escalation — multiple background risks simultaneously.
March FOMC convergence: 3 weeks from first 2026 dot plot (Mar 18) + Triple Witch (Mar 20). Positioning starts Mar 9. Strategic window approaching.

Sector Impact

CybersecurityZS/ESTC binary

SpaceRKLB earnings day

Nuclear EnergyVST/TLN/UUUU report

Critical MineralsMP/LYSCF; reshoring

QuantumIONQ +15%; breakout

AI InfrastructureNVDA digesting; flat

DefenseQuiet; Vulcan pause

Energy StorageFLNC OS; SQM tmrw

RoboticsQuiet; Wayve $1.2B

CryptoBTC +3%; alts surge

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Sources

Markets & Macro
NVIDIA posts record $215B annual revenue; beat Q4 expectations; delivered first Vera Rubin GPU samples (CNBC/Yahoo)
Salesforce down 4% pre-market on mixed guidance despite $50B buyback commitment (CNBC)
Supreme Court ruling upends tariff authority — creates trade deal uncertainty (Market Intelligence)
Trump orders Big Tech to self-generate power for AI data centers (Tom’s Hardware)
Democrat senators press Commerce on USA Rare Earth equity deal conflicts (CNBC)
Sector-Specific
IonQ surpasses $100M annual revenue — first pure-play quantum company at this milestone (Quantum Computing Report)
Cisco SD-WAN zero-day (CVE-2026-20127) exploited since 2023 for admin access (Hacker News)
Emirates Global and Century Aluminum to build first US aluminum smelter in 50 years (Northern Miner)
Google signs 30GWh multi-day iron-air battery deal with Form Energy (Energy Storage News)
INL opens molten salt testing facility for next-gen reactors (ANS Nuclear Newswire)
Space Force pauses Vulcan national security launches pending investigation (SpaceNews)
Alphabet folds Intrinsic robotics back into Google for “physical AI” (The Robot Report)
Wayve raises $1.2B from NVIDIA, Microsoft, Uber, Mercedes (CleanTechnica)
Chinese cyberspies breach dozens of telecom firms and government agencies (Hacker News)
Chipmakers still suffering from rare earth shortages despite US-China trade truce (Tom’s Hardware)
Stellantis posts first annual loss in company history, driven by EV writedowns
AMD −1.26%; investors doubt OpenAI spending plans, partially offset by $100B Meta deal
Nutanix +18.52% on AMD strategic investment “halo effect”
Rolls-Royce +4.67% raises outlook, up to $12B buyback
Crypto
Bitcoin stalls below $70K with options traders unconvinced by bounce (CoinDesk)
Altcoins lead strongest bounce in weeks: DOT +17%, UNI +15%, XRP +6% (CoinDesk)
Trump-linked American Bitcoin posts $59M Q4 loss (CoinDesk)
Data Sources
Schwab API (pre-market quotes, futures, yields, commodities)
CoinGecko (BTC, ETH pricing)
Stooq (DXY, KOSPI, FTSE 100)
FRED (2Y yield, prev close)
26 RSS feeds, 26 OK, 0 errors — 100% completeness (66/66 data points)
Data quality: 16 anomalous readings flagged (z-score > 3.0), including COMPX (z: 3.8), SPX (z: 3.2), VIX (z: −3.3), IONQ (z: 5.3), LYSCF (z: 6.0)

Pre-Market Snapshot