Risk-off intensifies as hotter-than-expected PPI compounds AI sector rotation fears. VIX surges 16% to 21.61 (elevated regime). CoreWeave guidance disappoints (−13%), ZS craters (−12%), Block soars (+24%) on radical restructuring. 25+ watchlist tickers down >3%. Full scenario analysis warranted.
Ugly tape. Futures pointing to broad selloff with Russell 2000 leading −1.65%, signaling risk-off breadth hitting small caps hardest. VIX +16% to 21.61 — elevated regime, sharp move from yesterday’s 17.75. Bond market screaming safety bid: 10Y collapsed to 3.989% (z-score −3.2), 30Y to 4.650% (z-score −3.7). Oil counter-trend +3.44% on geopolitical supply premium. Gold $5,228 quiet winner. Crypto hammered: BTC −2.96%, ETH −5.42%. 2s/10s compressed to +54 bps from +62 bps — classic flight-to-quality.
Broadly positive before US selloff accelerated. Hang Seng rebounded +0.95% after yesterday’s −1.44%, tech names recovering. Kospi +0.75% following yesterday’s 3% surge. Nikkei +0.16%, non-event. Asia closed before the US pre-market selloff — tonight’s session will be the true test.
Continental Europe is where weakness started. CAC 40 −0.42% and DAX −0.09% turned negative as PPI data hit. FTSE 100 +0.27% bucked the trend, benefiting from energy and mining heavyweights catching the crude oil bid. STOXX 50 −0.19% reflects the cautious continental tone.
The Asia-Europe divergence tells the story. Asia sessions were constructive but closed before the PPI shock — tonight’s Asian opens will absorb the US selling pressure. European weakness was the early warning. FTSE outperformance via energy/mining names is the tell — commodities and defensives are the only safe harbor today.
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Core PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.7% | Released: +0.8% |
| 8:30 AM | PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.5% | Released: Hot |
| 9:45 AM | Chicago PMI | 52.0 | 54.0 | Low |
| 10:00 AM | Construction Spending m/m | — | 0.5% | Low |
| Ticker | Sector | Time | Key Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| SQM | Storage T1 | Before Open | Lowest-cost lithium producer. Watch for lithium pricing commentary and 2026 guidance. Codelco JV economics closely scrutinized. Lithium recovery above $20K/tonne. |
| Ticker | Sector | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| SQ | — | +24% | Block slashes workforce by nearly half; radical restructuring signals leaner model |
| AAOI | — | +17.34% | Applied Optoelectronics surging alongside big movers |
| MARA | — | +13.02% | Strikes deal with Starwood to build AI data centers |
| NFLX | — | +8.53% | Momentum trade; top mover |
| /CLJ26 | Commodities | +3.44% | Crude oil bid on geopolitical supply premium |
| CRWV | AI Infra T3 | −13.19% | Revenue guidance disappoints; neocloud bellwether confirming AI monetization concerns |
| ZS | Cyber T1 | −12.27% | Sharp selloff; now 45% below SMA200 ($266). Sector-wide software derating. |
| FLUT | — | −12.01% | FanDuel parent disappointing Q4 earnings |
| ESTC | Cyber T2 | −8.96% | Software rout collateral damage |
| KTOS | Defense T2 | −8.40% | Giving back recent gains |
| RKLB | Space T1 | −6.33% | Neutron rocket debut delayed to late 2026 |
| UUUU | Nuclear T2 | −6.00% | Uranium names under pressure |
| QBTS | Quantum T3 | −5.31% | Down despite reporting 179% revenue jump |
| IONQ | Quantum T1 | −4.97% | Approaching SMA200 at $47.52 |
| FLNC | Storage T1 | −4.63% | RSI 33, approaching oversold. $5.5B backlog at odds with price. |
| Ticker | Sector | RSI | Price vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | Cyber T1 | 41 | $147 — 45% below SMA200 ($266) | Extreme dislocation. −12.27% today. Worst software underperformance since dotcom bust. |
| RKLB | Space T1 | 48 | $68.05 — +29% above SMA200 ($52.66) | Neutron delay catalyst. −6.33% today. Still well above SMA200 but momentum broken. |
| LUNR | Space T1 | 50 | $16.76 — +35% above SMA200 ($12.38) | Risk-off sympathy. Space names caught in broad growth selloff. |
| IONQ | Quantum T1 | 56 | $38.85 — 18% below SMA200 ($47.52) | Approaching key levels. Yesterday’s +15% fully reversing. |
| FLNC | Storage T1 | 33 | $15.45 — +11% above SMA200 ($13.92) | Approaching oversold. $5.5B record backlog at odds with price action. |
| VRT | AI Infra T1 | 75 | $249 — +61% above SMA200 ($155) | Still overbought at RSI 75 despite −3.98% drop. |
| MP | Minerals T1 | 50 | $57.90 — right at SMA200 ($56.66) | Testing key support. SMA200 is the line in the sand. |
| LEU | Nuclear T1 | 41 | $205 — 15% below SMA200 ($242) | Weakening trend. Nuclear under pressure despite structural tailwinds. |
| Sector | Signal | Summary |
|---|---|---|
| AI Infrastructure | Deeply Red | CRWV −13.19%, VRT −3.98%, AVGO −2.61%, NVDA −1.78%. Worst software underperformance since dotcom bust. AVGO below SMA200. |
| Cybersecurity | Deeply Red | ZS −12.27%, ESTC −8.96%, NET −3.62%, CRWD −2.83%. Sector-wide software derating. CRWD earnings Mar 3 next catalyst. |
| Defense | Bright Spot | LMT +0.83%, NOC +0.58%, RTX +0.46%. Only green sector. Non-discretionary demand thesis proven in risk-off. |
| Nuclear | Red | LEU −3.04%, UUUU −6.00%, VST −2.72%, CEG −2.17%. Broad weakness despite structural tailwinds. |
| Space | Red | RKLB −6.33%, LUNR −5.15%, PL −4.06%. Neutron delay + growth-to-value rotation hitting hard. |
| Quantum | Red | IONQ −4.97%, RGTI −5.20%, QBTS −5.31%. Down despite D-Wave’s 179% revenue jump. Market not rewarding growth. |
| Critical Minerals | Red | MP −3.50% testing SMA200. UUUU −6.00%. FCX relatively resilient (−0.12%). |
| Energy Storage | Red | FLNC −4.63% (RSI 33, approaching oversold), BE −5.17%, SEDG −3.79%. SQM earnings pending. |
| Robotics | Mixed | SYK +0.24%, ISRG −0.99%. Surgical names holding up better than industrial plays (TER −3.26%). |
| Date | Catalyst | Tickers | Priority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 3 | CrowdStrike earnings — RSI 40, approaching oversold. FY2027 guidance is the key. ZS −12% sets a cautious tone. | CRWD, PANW, FTNT | High |
| Mar 4 | Broadcom earnings — AVGO already below SMA200, z-score −4.0. Custom silicon demand validation. Make-or-break. | AVGO, NVDA, TSM | High |
| Mar 6 | Artemis II launch — lunar sentiment catalyst for space names. | LUNR, RKLB, PL | Medium |
| Mar 9 | Triple Witch positioning begins — T−9 before Mar 20 expiration. | Broad market | Medium |
| Mar 17–20 | FOMC + Triple Witch + S&P Rebalance convergence — First 2026 dot plot (Mar 18) + $5–6.5T notional expiration (Mar 20). Most structurally important window near-term. | Broad market | Critical |
| Mar 27 | NRC Part 53 final rule — technology-inclusive licensing for advanced reactors. | SMR, OKLO, VST | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | TerraPower construction permit — next-gen nuclear milestone. | Nuclear sector | Medium |
| Q1 2026 | AMD MI400 launch — AI accelerator competition heats up. | AMD, NVDA | Medium |
| Q2 2026 | Cerebras IPO (Nasdaq) — inference silicon market validation. | CRWV | Medium |
Market treats PPI as a lagging indicator and focuses on growth scare dynamics. Month-end pension rebalancing provides a mechanical bid. VIX spike creates short-covering opportunity.
Risk-off persists through Friday as traders reduce exposure ahead of the weekend. Month-end flows create pockets of volatility. Stagflation narrative gains traction but doesn’t cascade.
PPI shock compounds with AI capex skepticism to create a stagflation narrative. VIX crosses 25 triggering vol-targeting fund liquidation. Month-end selling amplifies the downdraft. Weekend gap risk becomes a real fear.