Morning Brief — Thursday, March 5, 2026

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Pre-Market Snapshot

Mar 5 — Cautious Rebound

S&P 500 Futures

6,873

−0.05%

Essentially flat

Nasdaq 100 Futures

25,118

−0.04%

Slight negative bias

Dow Futures

48,663

−0.27%

Lagging; defensive tilt

Russell 2000

2,627

−0.39%

Small caps cautious

VIX

21.23

+0.38%

Still elevated; down from 23.68

10Y Yield

4.080%

flat

Pinned; curve at +57 bps

2Y Yield

3.510%

—

Prior close (FRED)

2s/10s Spread

+57.0 bps

—

Steep; growth expectations

DXY

98.89

+0.21%

Dollar firming slightly

WTI Crude

$76.85

+2.93%

Hormuz supply fears

Brent Crude

$83.38

+2.43%

Supply disruption premium

Gold

$5,174

+0.76%

Consolidating near highs

Bitcoin

$72,810

+2.82%

$1.7B ETF inflows; nearing $74K

Ethereum

$2,130

+4.15%

Tracking BTC strength

VIX pulled back to 21.23 from yesterday’s 23.68 — worst of panic selling faded. Oil standout mover: WTI $76.85 (+2.93%), Brent $83.38 (+2.43%) on Iran/Hormuz risk. Bitcoin holding $72.8K (+2.8%) with $1.7B ETF inflows and Trump admin supporting digital asset legislation. Russell −0.39% underperforming — risk appetite still cautious.

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Overnight / Global

Asia Session

Kospi surged +6.34% — a dramatic snap-back that nearly erases yesterday’s −6.61% crash. Classic whipsaw in a geopolitically driven market. Nikkei +1.90% recovered roughly half of yesterday’s decline. Hang Seng muted at +0.28% as China set its lowest-ever GDP growth target (4.5–5%) with a 7% defense spending boost.

Europe Session

Flat to slightly negative after yesterday’s strong DAX +1.5% rally. STOXX 50 −0.49% suggests profit-taking on the European defense/rearmament trade after a sharp run. Markets digesting gains.

Key Read

Asia reversal is the headline. Kospi’s +6.34% snap-back vs yesterday’s −6.61% is the signature of panic-driven whipsaw. The fact that US futures are nearly flat suggests the domestic market views the Asia recovery as normalizing, not as a bullish signal. Oil’s +3% climb keeps the risk premium alive.

Market	Level	Change
Kospi	5,584	+6.34%
Nikkei 225	55,278	+1.90%
Hang Seng	25,321	+0.28%
DAX	24,198	−0.03%
CAC 40	8,164	−0.04%
FTSE 100	10,570	+0.02%
STOXX 50 (FEZ)	64.81	−0.49%
Australia (EWA)	29.16	−0.65%

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Today’s Calendar

Claims + Productivity Revisions

Time (ET)	Release	Consensus	Prior	Significance
12:30	Challenger Job Cuts y/y	—	117.8%	Low
13:30	Unemployment Claims	215K	212K	High
13:30	Import Prices m/m	0.3%	0.1%	Low
13:30	Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q	1.9%	4.9%	Low
13:30	Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q	2.0%	−1.9%	Low
15:30	Natural Gas Storage	—	−52B	Low

Unemployment Claims is the only high-impact release. Consensus 215K vs prior 212K — modest uptick expected. Markets watching labor data for rate cut signals, especially with Fed pick Warsh reportedly expected to cut despite oil shock. Productivity expected to decelerate sharply (4.9% → 1.9%), unit labor costs flip from −1.9% to +2.0%. Import prices (+0.3%) may show early pass-through from oil and conflict-driven supply disruptions.

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Thesis Watchlist

MRVL Earnings + AVGO Breakout

Earnings Reporting Today

Ticker	Sector	Time	Key Watch
MRVL	AI Infra T2	Before Open	Trading at $79.85, just above SMA200 ($78.73). Custom silicon + electro-optics positioning. Watch for Celestial AI acquisition commentary and AI revenue trajectory.

Pre-Market Movers — Upside

Ticker	Move	Catalyst
TTD	+19.43%	Ad deal buzz lifts Trade Desk
STEM	+17.01%	Watchlist: Energy Storage Tier 3 — massive single-day move; below SMA200 ($15.17)
AVGO	+6.38%	Watchlist: AI Infrastructure Tier 1. CEO Hock Tan says AI chip revenue “significantly above $100B” next year. Custom AI chip business stays hot. Reclaiming SMA50 ($335).
MRVL	+2.25%	Watchlist: AI Infrastructure Tier 2. Reports before open today.

Pre-Market Movers — Downside

Ticker	Move	Catalyst
GLW	−3.67%	Watchlist: AI Infra T2. Well above SMA200 ($80.19) — minor pullback in context.
RGTI	−4.50%	Watchlist: Quantum T2. $216M annual loss reported. Below SMA200 ($22.07) and SMA50 ($42.21).
CIEN	−4.52%	Watchlist: AI Infra T3. Far above SMA200 ($165); optical networking profit-taking.
IREN	−5.00%	Expanding processing capacity by 50%; ATM offering dilution concern.

RSI Extremes on Tier 1

Ticker	Sector	RSI	Signal
FLNC	Energy Storage	35	Approaching oversold
ZS	Cybersecurity	39	Approaching oversold — well below SMA200 ($265)
LEU	Nuclear Energy	41	Below neutral; below SMA200 ($244)
HON	Quantum Computing	66	Approaching overbought
NOC	Defense & Aerospace	65	Elevated
LYSCF	Critical Minerals	65	Elevated
VRT	AI Infrastructure	64	Elevated
LMT	Defense & Aerospace	63	Elevated

Sector Snapshot

Sector	Signal	Summary
AI Infrastructure	Bullish	AVGO +6.4% leads; custom silicon thesis validated. NVDA investing $4B in photonics. MRVL reports today. GLW −3.7%, CIEN −4.5% on profit-taking.
Defense & Aerospace	Active	PrSM used in combat for first time. Defense execs summoned to White House on munitions. LMT/NOC/RTX/LHX clustered near highs, RSI 61–65.
Nuclear Energy	Milestone	TerraPower construction permit approved — major NRC milestone. NRC streamlining hearing timelines. CEG near SMA200 ($329), VST at SMA50 ($163).
Cybersecurity	Mixed	149 hacktivist DDoS attacks across 16 countries from Iran conflict. Cisco SD-WAN exploited. OKTA beat but guided weak. ZS oversold (RSI 39).
Critical Minerals	Constructive	Ontario pivots mining to defense. Aluminum 4-year high on Bahrain force majeure. Canada vows fastest G20 permits. Gold rebounding.
Quantum Computing	Under Pressure	Pasqal going public via $2B SPAC. RGTI −4.5% on $216M loss. Record fidelity on IBM hardware. Valuations compressing.
Energy Storage	STEM Leads	STEM +17% leads. Grid-scale BESS surge globally. Next-gen BYD Blade battery. FLNC oversold (RSI 35).
Robotics	Steady	SYM acquires Fox Robotics. MassRobotics startups surpass $2B. Korean humanoid debuts. ISRG/SYK/CGNX stable.
Space	Artemis T−1	Senate advances NASA authorization. Telus invests in ASTS. Third Kairos launch fails. Artemis II launches tomorrow.
Crypto	Surging	Bitcoin $72.8K (+2.8%), $1.7B ETF inflows. Trump supporting market structure bill. a16z raising $2B crypto fund. Alts +8%.

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Approaching Catalysts

Next 30 Days

Date	Catalyst	Tickers	Priority
Mar 6	Artemis II launch — tomorrow. Lunar sentiment catalyst; LUNR positioned for revenue ramp.	LUNR, RKLB, PL	High
Mar 9	Triple Witch positioning starts (T−9) — pre-expiration rally typically averages +0.82%.	Broad market	Medium
Mar 17–20	FOMC (Mar 18) + Triple Witch + S&P Rebalance. Highest-impact convergence window of Q1.	Broad market	Critical
Mar 27	NRC Part 53 final rule — technology-inclusive licensing for advanced reactors.	CEG, VST, SMR, OKLO	Medium
Q1 2026	TerraPower construction permit — approved overnight. NRC milestone validated.	CEG, VST, CCJ	High
Q2 2026	Cerebras IPO expected — AI infrastructure sector catalyst.	NVDA, AVGO, CRWV	Medium
Q2 2026	FCX Grasberg restart — copper supply event.	FCX, SCCO	Medium

Artemis II launches tomorrow. TerraPower construction permit approved overnight — a major nuclear milestone. The March 17–20 FOMC + Triple Witch convergence remains the structurally critical window for the month.

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Today’s Playbook

Bias: CAUTIOUS NEUTRAL — Kospi reversal (+6.3%) shows panic selling exhausted. AVGO validates AI spending cycle. VIX retreating from 23.68. But oil +3% adds stagflation pressure, Russell −0.39% shows risk-off in small caps, and Iran conflict remains unresolved.

Watch For

Unemployment Claims at 13:30 ET: Consensus 215K vs prior 212K. Markets watching labor data for rate cut signals — Fed pick Warsh reportedly dovish despite oil shock.
MRVL earnings before the bell: At $79.85, just above SMA200 ($78.73). Custom silicon + electro-optics thesis. Celestial AI acquisition commentary key.
AVGO +6.4% gap: AI chip revenue “significantly above $100B” validates Tier 1 thesis. Reclaiming SMA50 ($335). Watch for follow-through above $340.
Bitcoin at $72.8K: Approaching the two-year resistance zone near $74K — make-or-break level. $1.7B ETF inflows + Trump market structure bill signal building momentum.
WTI at $76.85: Watch $80 as psychological level. Sustained above $80 accelerates stagflation narrative.
VIX at 21.23: Still above 20 threshold. A close below 20 would signal returning calm.

Risks to Manage

Iran escalation: PrSM used in combat for first time. Iran targeting infrastructure (Amazon Bahrain data center). Conflict still active with Strait of Hormuz disruption risk.
Oil supply squeeze: If Hormuz shipping is disrupted, WTI above $80 becomes likely. Feeds directly into stagflation narrative.
China demand headwinds: 4.5–5% GDP target (lowest ever) signals weakening demand for commodities and exporters.
FOMC convergence approaching: Mar 17–20 (FOMC + Triple Witch + S&P Rebalance) — positioning may start early. Largest structural event of Q1.

Sector Impact

AI InfrastructureAVGO +6.4%; MRVL reports

DefensePrSM combat debut

NuclearTerraPower permit approved

CybersecurityIran DDoS surge; ZS oversold

Critical MineralsAluminum highs; gold bid

QuantumRGTI −4.5%; valuations compress

Energy StorageSTEM +17%; FLNC oversold

SpaceArtemis II tomorrow

CryptoBTC $72.8K; $1.7B inflows

RoboticsSYM acquires Fox Robotics

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Sources

Markets & Macro
Oil prices rise again as Iran conflict sustains supply disruption fears; Dow futures fall (Yahoo Finance)
Iran war oil price shock won’t stop Fed pick Warsh from cutting rates (CNBC)
Stock-market correction signal triggers for only the third time in seven years (MarketWatch)
Spain rejects White House claim it agreed to cooperate with US forces amid Iran war (CNBC)
Defense & Geopolitics
US military uses PrSM for first time in combat (Breaking Defense)
Defense execs invited to White House to talk munition production amid Iran strikes (Breaking Defense)
Iran war powers resolution fails in Senate (Breaking Defense)
AI & Semiconductors
Broadcom CEO sees AI chip revenue “significantly above $100B” next year (CNBC/Yahoo)
NVIDIA invests $4B into photonics firms for data center interconnects (Tom’s Hardware)
Intel CEO embraces 18A node, cites increasing yields and 18A-P inbound interest (Tom’s Hardware)
Apple announces MacBook Neo at $599 with A18 Pro chip (Yahoo Finance)
Crypto & Digital Assets
Bitcoin takes aim at $74K; surprisingly, the dollar is rallying too (CoinDesk)
Trump-backed American Bitcoin board members scoop up stock following earnings (CoinDesk)
Andreessen Horowitz crypto arm seeks $2B for fifth fund (CoinDesk)
Nuclear
NRC approves TerraPower construction permit (ANS Nuclear Newswire)
NRC looks to streamline hearing timelines under new rule (ANS Nuclear Newswire)
Space
Senate advances NASA authorization bill changing Artemis and extending ISS (SpaceNews)
Telus invests in AST SpaceMobile to expand D2D coverage in Canada (SpaceNews)
Third Kairos launch fails (SpaceNews)
Data Sources
Schwab API (pre-market quotes, futures, yields, commodities)
CoinGecko (BTC, ETH pricing)
Stooq (DXY, Kospi, FTSE 100, global indices)
FRED (2Y yield, prev close)
66/66 data points collected — 100% completeness. Sector context from BigPic thesis research files (compiled Feb 7, 2026). Market structure calendar cross-referenced.