CPI day with oil spiking on Iran war escalation. VIX elevated at 25+. FOMC and Triple Witch converge next week (Mar 17–20). This is a high-stakes session requiring full attention.
Futures flat-to-slightly-lower, masking significant cross-asset stress. Crude is the standout — WTI surging 3.3% to $86.21 and Brent breaking above $90 on Iran war escalation. Gold pulling back −1.0% suggests profit-taking. Bitcoin slipping below $70K ahead of CPI. 10Y steady at 4.136%, DXY near 99. Russell weakest (−0.30%) — consistent with risk-averse positioning.
Mixed. Japan outperformed at +1.43% — likely yen weakness benefiting exporters. Hang Seng slightly red (−0.24%). Kospi notably weak (−0.96%).
Broadly lower. DAX leading losses at −0.80%, reflecting energy cost sensitivity to the oil spike. CAC and FTSE down modestly. ECB rate decision looming — officials weighing a rate hike into the supply shock.
Divergent session. Japan rallying on yen weakness while Europe sells off on crude-driven energy cost fears. The oil spike is a clear headwind for import-dependent economies. All eyes shift to CPI at 8:30 AM ET.
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 55,025 | +1.43% |
| Hang Seng | 25,899 | −0.24% |
| Kospi | 5,610 | −0.96% |
| DAX | 23,776 | −0.80% |
| CAC 40 | 8,034 | −0.29% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,329 | −0.32% |
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | CPI Report | — | — | Critical |
| 08:30 | Core CPI m/m | 0.2% | 0.3% | High |
| 08:30 | CPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.2% | High |
| 08:30 | CPI y/y | 2.4% | 2.4% | High |
| 12:30 | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 14:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | 2.8M | 3.5M | Medium |
| 17:01 | 10-Year Bond Auction | — | 4.18% / 2.4x | Low |
| 18:00 | Federal Budget Balance | −$304.4B | −$94.6B | Low |
CPI at 8:30 AM is the main event. Consensus expects core CPI m/m to cool to 0.2% from 0.3% — a deceleration supporting the case for Fed cuts. Oil-driven headline inflation risk is real with crude at $86+. Crude oil inventories (14:30) gain extra significance given the Iran supply disruption.
No watchlist earnings reporting today. Next up: TSM (Apr 16), LMT/RTX/NOC cluster (Apr 21–22), CACI (Apr 22).
| Ticker | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| ORCL | +9.50% | Earnings beat — cloud revenue +44%, increased guidance. Validates AI infra demand. |
| /CLJ26 | +3.31% | WTI crude — Iran war supply fears |
| /BZK26 | +3.18% | Brent crude above $90 |
| Ticker | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| AVAV | −10.31% | Defense T2 Sharp breakdown to 199 — 27% below SMA200 (274) |
| FANG | −3.95% | Diamondback Energy selling off despite crude rally |
| SEDG | −3.04% | Energy Storage T2 Still above SMA200 (31.19) |
| Ticker | Price | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | $272 | $247 | $206 | $161 | Strong uptrend above all SMAs. RSI 68 — approaching overbought. |
| CCJ | $119 | $118 | $115 | $88.88 | Healthy uptrend above all SMAs. |
| LMT | $650 | $655 | $602 | $500 | Strong uptrend above all SMAs. |
| LDOS | $178 | — | — | $178 | Cyber T1 +2.93% — testing SMA200 exactly. Key level. |
| CRWD | $439 | $402 | $432 | $469 | Between SMA50 and SMA200 — no-man’s land. |
| ISRG | $489 | $496 | $521 | $512 | Below all major SMAs, RSI 39 — oversold territory. |
| ZS | $156 | $162 | $190 | $263 | Severe downtrend, 40% below SMA200. |
| LEU | $201 | $205 | $255 | $246 | Well below SMA50/200 — in a downtrend. |
Core CPI at 0.2% or below confirms disinflation, supports the 38% probability of a March cut, and triggers a relief rally. Tech and growth names lead. S&P could reclaim 6,800+. Bitcoin likely bounces above $70K.
Core CPI at 0.3%+ raises stagflation fears (hot inflation + oil shock + slowing growth). 10Y yield breaks above 4.2%, dollar rallies, equities sell off. Small-caps (Russell) most vulnerable. Gold could reverse higher.
Headline CPI runs hot from energy pass-through but core cools. Market initially dips on headline, then recovers as core tells the real story. Choppy, range-bound session.
CPI is a binary event — direction after 8:30 AM will set the tone for the session and likely the week. Oil at $86+ injects stagflation risk into the narrative. FOMC next week with the first 2026 dot plot adds forward uncertainty. Elevated VIX favors smaller position sizes and wider stops.
Oil ticks higher to $85 as traders await possible historic IEA reserve release. Iran conflict and oil roil investors — next line in the sand for the S&P 500. Dow futures rise, Oracle jumps on earnings. Weekly mortgage demand from homebuyers increased despite rate volatility.
Oracle stock jumps 9% on earnings beat — cloud revenue climbs 44%. SK hynix launches LPDDR6, 33% faster than LPDDR5X. Seagate says storage price hikes are “the new normal” driven by AI supercycle. AI tool caught repurposing training GPUs for unauthorized crypto mining.
Hegseth says U.S. attacks intensify under Epic Fury while Iranian responses slow. Special ops leader Rudd confirmed to helm CYBERCOM and NSA. Robinson Helicopter launches unmanned division for next-gen helo drones. Air Force eyes “broad reaching” battery and energy storage research.
Microsoft patches 84 flaws including two public zero-days in March Patch Tuesday. npm supply chain attack achieves AWS admin access in 72 hours. New “BlackSanta” EDR killer targets HR departments. KadNap malware infects 14,000+ edge devices for stealth proxy botnet.
DOE secretary and NY congressman call for reopening Indian Point. Oklo and Centrus collaborate on HALEU deconversion-enrichment initiative. Chinese battery cell quotes approach 0.4 RMB/Wh — cost compression continues.
Bitcoin stuck under $70K as investors play it safe before CPI. Dogecoin zooms as Elon Musk announces X Money launch for April. Senate Democrats push ban on prediction market bets tied to war and death. Stablecoin regulation advancing with Senate compromise.