Oil touches $100 on Iran shipping attacks. PPI, Jobless Claims, and a cascade of housing/trade data hit today. FOMC + Triple Witch converge next week (Mar 17–20). Recession now being priced in.
War-driven risk-off session. Brent surging 5.5% to $97 — touching $100 intraday on Iran tanker attacks and Persian Gulf port disruptions. Goldman warning $150 peak. Dow futures down 500+, Russell weakest at −0.82% signaling recession fear. DXY weakening despite risk-off — dollar confidence fraying. Bitcoin showing surprising resilience at $70.5K (+1.56%) as potential hedge. 30Y yield at 4.857% flagged as anomaly (z-score 4.5). 2s/10s steepened to +63.8 bps.
Broadly negative. Nikkei fell 1.04% as oil shock hit import-dependent Japan. Hang Seng down 0.70%. Kospi the outlier at +0.28% — possibly defense/semiconductor positioning. Australia (EWA) down 0.41%.
Mixed but leaning lower. STOXX 50 hardest hit at −1.35%. DAX surprisingly resilient at −0.08% despite energy sensitivity — defense spending rerating (Rheinmetall $16.8B orders). FTSE barely down (−0.07%) as energy-heavy index benefits from crude rally.
Oil shock reverberating globally. Import-dependent economies (Japan, EU) hit hardest. FTSE resilient on energy weighting. DAX defense rerating offsetting energy cost pain. The $100 Brent headline is a psychological threshold that changes portfolio construction.
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 54,453 | −1.04% |
| Hang Seng | 25,717 | −0.70% |
| Kospi | 5,583 | +0.28% |
| DAX | 23,622 | −0.08% |
| CAC 40 | 8,004 | −0.47% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,343 | −0.07% |
| STOXX 50 | 63.01 | −1.35% |
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08:30 | PPI Report | — | — | Medium |
| 12:30 | Unemployment Claims | 214K | 213K | High |
| 12:30 | Building Permits | 1.42M | 1.45M | Low |
| 12:30 | Housing Starts | 1.34M | 1.40M | Low |
| 12:30 | Trade Balance | −$66.6B | −$70.3B | Low |
| 14:30 | Natural Gas Storage | −42B | −132B | Low |
| 15:00 | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 17:01 | 30-Year Bond Auction | — | 4.75% / 2.7x | Low |
PPI at 8:30 AM — Following yesterday’s “sticky” CPI, a hot PPI would reinforce the stagflation narrative. With oil at $91+, pipeline inflation pressure is real. Jobless Claims at 12:30 is the higher-impact release — any spike above 214K consensus would add fuel to recession pricing. TSA workers set to miss first paycheck amid DHS shutdown.
| Ticker | Sector | Time | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| S | Cybersecurity T2 | Before Open | Pending — Watch Purple AI attach rates, non-endpoint bookings mix (>50% validates platform expansion), FCF trajectory |
| Ticker | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| /BZK26 | +5.50% | Brent crude — Iran tanker attacks, port disruption. Goldman warns $150 peak. |
| /CLJ26 | +4.92% | WTI crude — biggest supply disruption in history per IEA |
| DKS | +3.12% | Dick’s Sporting Goods — despite weak profit guidance from Foot Locker merger |
| ORCL | — | Strong Q4 beat, TikTok stake valued at $2B+ — validates AI cloud demand |
| META | — | Four new MTIA inference chips on 6-month cadence; 150K scam accounts disabled |
| INTC | — | Arrow Lake Refresh +15% gaming; Heracles FHE chip breakthrough |
| LRCX | — | Supply-constrained WFE cycle, multi-year runway; IBM High NA EUV partnership |
| HII | — | Defense T2 Strategic shipbuilding capacity thesis under defense buildup |
| RIO | — | $1.17B financing for Argentina lithium project — critical minerals thesis |
| WFC | — | WFUSD stablecoin trademark filing — deeper crypto push |
| Ticker | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| SYK | — | Robotics T1 Systems offline after Iran-linked wiper malware. z-score −3.4. RSI 31 oversold. |
| MRVL | — | AI Infra T2 Analyst downgrade: “under the hood” concerns despite strong guidance. $89.88 |
| TEAM | — | Slashing 10% workforce to fund AI/enterprise investments |
| JPM | — | Reining in lending to private credit — marking down software loans. Signals stress. |
| COIN | — | Losing market share as Bullish exchange surpasses in spot volume |
| Ticker | Price | vs SMA200 | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | $267 | +65% | 67 | Strongest momentum in Tier 1. Above SMA20 ($251) and SMA50 ($208). |
| SYK | $345 | −8% | 31 | Oversold. Iran wiper malware — operational disruption. Below all SMAs. |
| ZS | $153 | −42% | 39 | Deepest drawdown in Tier 1 cybersecurity. Approaching oversold. |
| LEU | $202 | −18% | 42 | Below all SMAs. Only Western HALEU producer — Iran supports energy independence narrative. |
| CEG | $298 | −10% | — | Below all SMAs. |
| IBM | $248 | −11% | — | Below SMA50 and SMA200. |
| CRWD | $440 | −6% | — | Above SMA20 and SMA50. Relative strength. |
| LYSCF | $14.31 | +54% | — | Extended above SMA200. |
| RKLB | $72.09 | +32% | — | Above SMA200, at SMA50. |
PPI comes in soft, pushing back on stagflation narrative. Claims at or below 214K consensus eases recession fears. Oil remains elevated but market prices in supply disruption as temporary. Equities recover intraday, led by tech. S&P reclaims 6,780+. Bitcoin continues climbing.
PPI confirms pipeline inflation from oil pass-through. Claims spike above 214K, adding TSA/DHS labor disruption. Stagflation becomes consensus — no Fed relief possible. 10Y breaks above 4.30%, dollar rallies. S&P tests 6,700 support. Russell leads losses. VIX breaks 27.
PPI mixed (headline hot on energy, core manageable). Claims inline. Oil remains the dominant narrative — $100 Brent is the headline. Choppy session with defense/energy outperforming. Markets drift lower into the close ahead of weekend geopolitical risk.
Oil at $91+ with Goldman warning $150 is the dominant force. Yesterday’s sticky CPI + today’s PPI = inflation not cooperating. Recession now being priced in. Private credit stress emerging (JPM pulling back, Morgan Stanley capping withdrawals). Defense, energy, and Bitcoin showing relative strength as safe-haven/beneficiary trades. FOMC next week with no room for dovish pivot.
Oil touches $100 on Iran shipping attacks — Goldman warns $150 peak. Dow futures fall 500+ as oil tops $90 on tanker attacks. India CPI rises to 3.21% as oil risks loom. US deficit tops $1 trillion through February. TSA workers set to miss first paycheck of DHS shutdown.
Oracle strong Q4 beat, cloud demand validated. Dick’s Sporting Goods weak profit guidance on Foot Locker merger. Atlassian slashes 10% workforce for AI/enterprise. Marvell downgraded — “under the hood” concerns. Lam Research supply-constrained WFE cycle, multi-year runway.
Rheinmetall predicts $16.8B annual orders, “focus entirely” on defense. Anduril acquires ExoAnalytic for space/missile tracking. HII benefits from strategic shipbuilding capacity. Australia orders 40 more Bluebottle USVs. Iran conflict is the primary sector catalyst.
Qatar helium shutdown puts chip supply on two-week clock (SK hynix diversifying). Meta reveals four MTIA inference chips on 6-month cadence. DDR5 pricing up 4x. Intel Arrow Lake Refresh +15% gaming; Heracles FHE chip breakthrough.
Stryker (SYK) systems offline after Iran-linked wiper malware attack. CISA flags actively exploited n8n RCE — 24,700 instances exposed. Apple issues security updates for older iOS (WebKit exploit). Iran threatens strikes on US tech companies including Nvidia and Microsoft.
Bitcoin climbs wall of worry amid Iran war — showing relative strength at $70.5K. BTC futures trading 5x bigger than spot on Binance. Wells Fargo files WFUSD stablecoin trademark. Crypto code commits fall 75% as developers move to AI projects. Bullish surpasses Coinbase in spot volume.