St. Patrick’s Day and the calendar is quiet, but the macro backdrop is anything but. FOMC Day 1 begins behind closed doors — dot plot drops tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET. NVIDIA GTC continues: $1T order pipeline, Vera Rubin unveiled, HBM4 from Micron. Brent holds above $103 as Hormuz enters week three. We’re in the T−3 pre–Triple Witch window — historically the strongest edge of the entire quarterly cycle.
Quiet green across equity futures — modest gains led by Nasdaq +0.31% on GTC afterglow. VIX continues its retreat, down 1.87% to 23.07. Dollar slipping further below 100 (DXY 99.39), supporting risk. Oil is the standout: WTI +2.4% to $95.12, Brent +2.6% to $103 — Hormuz standoff not resolving. Gold just below $5K. The 10Y easing to 4.20% reflects pre-FOMC positioning for a dovish surprise, though $100+ oil makes that difficult for Powell. BTC above $74K as institutional adoption headlines pile up.
Divergent. Kospi was the notable laggard at −1.15% — likely semiconductor supply chain concern as the Hormuz blockade threatens chip supply via Taiwan. Nikkei flat at −0.09%. Hang Seng +0.13%, holding Monday’s gains.
Solidly green. FTSE led at +0.83% — energy and mining weights benefiting from $103 Brent and commodity strength. DAX +0.75% and CAC +0.65% reflect broad European risk appetite. Defense names continue to benefit from the NATO spending backdrop.
Europe absorbing oil stress well. FTSE +0.83% is notable strength given $103 Brent — energy/mining weight is offsetting. Kospi −1.15% is the warning sign: semiconductor supply chain concern from Hormuz is real and specific to Asia chipmakers reliant on Middle East shipping routes.
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 53,700 | −0.09% |
| Hang Seng | 25,869 | +0.13% |
| DAX | 23,741 | +0.75% |
| CAC 40 | 7,987 | +0.65% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,410 | +0.83% |
| Kospi | 5,640 | −1.15% |
| STOXX 50 (FEZ) | 63.10 | +0.35% |
| Australia (EWA) | 28.72 | +0.14% |
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:15 | ADP Weekly Employment Change | — | 15.5K | Low |
| 14:00 | Pending Home Sales m/m | −0.6% | −0.8% | Medium |
| 14:00 | CB Leading Index m/m | — | −0.2% | Low |
| 20:30 | API Weekly Statistical Bulletin | — | — | Low |
LIGHT calendar day. Pending Home Sales (consensus −0.6% vs prior −0.8%) is the only medium-impact release. The real event is the FOMC meeting beginning behind closed doors — rate decision and dot plot arrive tomorrow at 2:00 PM ET. With oil above $100, the question is whether the dot plot still signals 3 cuts or walks it back. CME: 60% hold / 38% cut.
No watchlist tickers reporting today.
| Ticker | Price | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | $76.02 | +6.60% | Space T1 NVIDIA space module + Hormuz geospatial demand dual tailwind. Reclaiming SMA50 ($77.13) |
| PL | $26.05 | +5.89% | Space T1 Kayrros sale signals rising satellite intelligence demand. $734M backlog |
| SEDG | $42.49 | +4.37% | Energy T2 Solar bounce |
| ESTC | $55.58 | +4.00% | Cyber T2 AI agent security CISO priority driving demand |
| IRDM | $25.98 | +3.98% | Space T2 Hormuz-driven satellite comms demand |
| AZTA | $21.61 | +3.37% | Robotics T2 Humanoid ecosystem forming at GTC |
| Ticker | Price | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| ENPH | $43.98 | −4.16% | Energy T2 Solar split — SEDG up but ENPH down |
| LYSCF | $14.31 | −3.59% | Minerals T1 Profit-taking after rally. RSI 65, still above SMA20 ($12.71) |
| MNTS | $4.22 | −3.95% | Space T3 Giving back recent gains |
| INTC | $43.99 | −3.87% | Won DGX Rubin socket but market treating as consolation prize. Above SMA200 ($33.69) |
| Ticker | Direction | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | −0.72% | Profit-taking despite GTC dominance: $1T pipeline, Vera Rubin, DLSS 5, AI space module, HBM4 from MU. Sector-defining announcements rippling through supply chain |
| NMG | +5.91% | Secured $335M project debt financing for graphite ops. Validates critical minerals supply chain buildout thesis |
| MA | Acquiring | Buying stablecoin platform BVNK for up to $1.8B — major institutional crypto payments bet |
| Ticker | Price | vs SMA200 | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RKLB | $76.02 | +6.6% | 49 | Biggest T1 mover. Approaching SMA50 at $77.13. NVIDIA space module + Hormuz dual tailwind. Neutron first flight is key 2026 catalyst. |
| PL | $26.05 | +89% | — | Well above all SMAs (SMA20 $24.82, SMA50 $24.53, SMA200 $13.76). Defense EO pipeline converting; Hormuz accelerating demand. |
| NVDA | $182 | +2.2% | — | Holding above SMA200 ($178). Key support intact despite profit-taking on GTC news. |
| AVGO | $318 | −1.9% | — | Below SMA200 ($324). Under pressure from analyst downgrade. |
| TSLA | $396 | +0.5% | — | Sitting right on SMA200 ($394). Tight range at the 200-day line. |
| CEG | $307 | −7.0% | — | Below SMA200 ($330). Needs FOMC clarity. Nuclear thesis intact. |
| MP | $59.05 | +0.0% | — | Exactly on SMA200 ($59.05). Inflection point for critical minerals thesis. |
| LYSCF | $14.31 | +52% | 65 | Profit-taking after rally. RSI 65 was running hot. Still well above SMA20 ($12.71) and SMA200 ($9.41). |
Pre–Triple Witch seasonal edge (T−3 window), VIX declining, GTC AI narrative lifting sentiment, dollar weakness supporting risk assets, and futures are green. But Brent is back above $103 (+2.6%), FOMC uncertainty looms tomorrow, stagflation fears are escalating, and SPY remains in a bearish trend. LIGHT calendar means no data catalysts to disrupt — market likely holds its bid into tomorrow’s FOMC unless oil spikes further.
Oil prices top $102 as U.S. allies reluctant to escort Hormuz tankers. NVIDIA GTC: Jensen Huang sees $1 trillion in orders through ’27. Global chip supply chain under threat from Hormuz blockade. Airlines raise revenue guidance despite rising fuel costs. Mastercard acquiring stablecoin platform BVNK for $1.8B.
Pentagon ups Golden Dome spending by $10 billion. Army awards Anduril counter-drone task order in $20B contract vehicle. AeroVironment acquiring ESAero for $200M. Lockheed completes first PrSM Inc 2 anti-ship missile flight test. NVIDIA unveils AI computing module for space-based data centers.
PayPal expands stablecoin into 70 markets. U.S. regional banks building tokenized deposit network on ZKsync. Sam Altman’s World teams up with Coinbase for AI transaction verification. Mastercard–BVNK acquisition signals institutional crypto momentum.
AI agent security emerges as top CISO priority. New font-rendering trick hides malicious commands from AI tools. LeakNet ransomware uses ClickFix and Deno runtime in stealthy attacks. CISA flags actively exploited Wing FTP vulnerability.
Nouveau Monde Graphite secures $335M project debt financing. BHP targets $5B Escondida upgrade to fight grade decline. Sangdong tungsten mine in South Korea returns to production after 30 years.
NVIDIA GTC driving quantum integration wave: IONQ KISTI alliance with NVQLink, IQM/PsiQuantum/ORCA/Quantum Machines partnerships. UK pledges £2B for quantum. Humanoid robotics ecosystem forming around NVIDIA. Universal Robots + Scale AI launch imitation learning.