The most consequential day of the quarter. FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET with the first 2026 dot plot and updated economic projections, followed by Powell’s press conference at 2:30 PM. Core PPI at 8:30 AM provides the final inflation data point. Micron (MU) reports before the open — the best US-listed HBM play. All of this at T−2 to Triple Witch (Friday Mar 20) with $5–6.5T in notional expiration. Buckle up.
Cautiously risk-on setup. Equity futures uniformly green led by Russell +0.42%, suggesting expanding risk appetite ahead of the Fed. VIX retreating for a third consecutive day to 22.10 but remains elevated. Oil complex diverging: WTI −0.6% to $94.92 while Brent firms to $105 (+1.1%) — widening WTI–Brent spread ($10.08) signals continued Hormuz disruption premium. Crypto de-risking: BTC −1.3%, ETH −2.3% ahead of FOMC. Gold pulls back from $5K round number.
Strong risk-on. Nikkei surged +2.87% — the standout global move — on yen weakness and NVIDIA GTC afterglow boosting semiconductor sentiment. Kospi rallied +2.74% in sympathy, reversing yesterday’s −1.15%. Hang Seng +0.61%, third consecutive up day. Asia pricing in a dovish-leaning Fed hold.
Broad green. CAC led at +1.11% and DAX +0.89% — defense and tech names benefiting from NATO spending backdrop and AI infrastructure momentum. FTSE lagged at +0.25%, weighed by gold miners pulling back. Global picture is risk-on heading into the Fed.
Global risk-on conviction is high. Nikkei +2.87% and Kospi +2.74% are big moves — Asia is front-running a dovish Fed outcome and riding NVIDIA GTC tailwinds. If the FOMC disappoints with hawkish dots, the unwind could be sharp given this positioning.
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 55,239 | +2.87% |
| Hang Seng | 26,025 | +0.61% |
| Kospi | 5,925 | +2.74% |
| DAX | 23,942 | +0.89% |
| CAC 40 | 8,063 | +1.11% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,430 | +0.25% |
| STOXX 50 (FEZ) | 63.56 | +0.63% |
| Australia (EWA) | 28.71 | +0.03% |
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8:30 AM | Core PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.8% | High |
| 8:30 AM | PPI m/m | 0.3% | 0.5% | High |
| 10:00 AM | Factory Orders m/m | 0.1% | −0.7% | Low |
| 10:30 AM | Crude Oil Inventories | −1.5M | 3.8M | Low |
| 2:00 PM | Federal Funds Rate | 3.75% | 3.75% | High |
| 2:00 PM | FOMC SEP + Dot Plot | — | — | High |
| 2:30 PM | Powell Press Conference | — | — | High |
| 4:00 PM | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 71.6B | 28.0B | Low |
Five high-impact events. Core PPI at 8:30 AM sets the inflation tone — prior was a hot 0.8% m/m, consensus expects a sharp deceleration to 0.3%. A print above 0.5% tightens conditions into the Fed. The FOMC decision at 2:00 PM is widely expected to hold at 3.75%, but the dot plot, SEP revisions, and Powell’s framing of oil-driven inflation vs. growth risks will determine the post-meeting move. This is the first 2026 dot plot — markets currently price 3 cuts (75 bps) by year-end.
| Ticker | Sector | Time | EPS Est | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MU | AI Infra T2 | Before open | — | Pending |
| SPIR | Space T2 | Before open | — | Pending |
MU is the marquee watchlist print. Best US-listed HBM play (21% global share, 70% HBM gross margins). At $471 pre-market (+1.97%), roughly 2x its SMA200 ($227). Watch HBM revenue share, HBM4 qualification wins, and commentary on SK Hynix chairman’s warning that memory shortages persist until 2030.
| Ticker | Price | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| NRGV | $3.92 | +12.00% | Micro-cap energy spike |
| M | $18.40 | +8.75% | Bounce despite weak forward guidance |
| SPIR | $11.50 | +6.09% | Space T2 Surging above SMA200 ($10.21) ahead of earnings |
| GLW | $134 | +3.24% | AI Infra T2 Fiber demand momentum continues |
| Ticker | Price | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAIL | $12.70 | −13.66% | Cyber T3 Crushed well below SMA200 ($19.75) — continued deterioration |
| RKLB | $75.61 | −3.79% | Space T1 Pullback despite risk-on. Below SMA50 ($77.19), RSI 59. Rotation, not thesis break. |
| Ticker | Direction | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| NVDA | Up | China H200 orders confirmed with US gov’t licenses, manufacturing restarting. OpenClaw AI agent. Vera Rubin roadmap with Rosa CPU and stacked Feynman GPUs. DGX Station GB300. |
| TSLA | Up | $4.3B battery cell purchase from disbanded GM plant — LG Energy cells signal production scaling |
| TCEHY | Up | 2025 revenue beats estimates on AI investment ramp |
| DIS | Up | New CEO Josh D’Amaro takes over, signals strategic reset |
| MA | Up | $1.8B BVNK deal positions Mastercard in global payments shift |
| LULU | Down | Weak forward guidance compounded by proxy battle and tariff headwinds |
| Ticker | Price | vs SMA50 | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VRT | $274 | +26.9% | +66.1% | Strongest uptrend. RSI 65 — highest in T1 group, approaching extended. |
| RKLB | $75.61 | −2.0% | +36.0% | Testing SMA50 from below. RSI 59. Pullback despite broad risk-on. |
| CCJ | $112 | −3.4% | +24.1% | Consolidating below SMAs. NRC Part 53 on Mar 27. |
| ZS | $156 | −14.8% | −40.0% | Deepest T1 discount to SMA200 — value or value trap. |
| ISRG | $485 | −5.3% | −5.1% | Below all major MAs. |
| SYK | $351 | −3.8% | −5.9% | Weakest T1, RSI 39 — most oversold in the group. |
RSI watch: No T1 names at extremes. Most stretched: VRT (65) and LYSCF (61) overbought side; SYK (39) and FCX (41) oversold side. Range-bound consolidation ahead of the Fed.
Futures green, VIX declining, Asia ripped higher, and the market is positioned for a hold + dovish forward guidance. Pre-FOMC drift has historically been positive. However, $105 Brent and Iran-driven supply disruption make it extremely difficult for Powell to sound dovish on inflation. The tension between oil-driven stagflation risk and a growth slowdown creates a communication minefield. After 2:00 PM, this becomes a pure event-driven market.
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