Oil crashes, gold surges, and the ceasefire trade roars to life. S&P futures up +1.01% to 5,673 as WTI crude plunges −5.40% to $87.36 on cautious hopes for a U.S. 15-point Iran peace plan. Gold surges nearly 4% to an all-time high of $4,575 on central bank buying momentum. VIX dropping hard (−6.42% to 25.22) but still elevated. ARM +12% on first in-house chip, SK Hynix $8B ASML order, Pentagon commits $13B to Palantir Maven AI.
Dramatic reversal from yesterday’s risk-off session. Oil crashing −5.4% WTI on Iran peace plan hopes. Gold +3.94% to ATH $4,575 — central bank structural buying. VIX −6.42% but still above 25. Russell leading +1.34% — genuine risk appetite. Source: Schwab, Stooq, CoinGecko, FRED. Collected 05:13 PT.
Nikkei surged +2.87% to 53,750, its best session in weeks as the oil crash directly benefits Japan’s import-heavy economy. Hang Seng gained +1.09% to 25,336 on broader de-escalation sentiment. Kospi was the outlier, down −0.67% to 5,642 — Samsung/memory sector rotation despite SK Hynix’s $8B ASML order. Australia (EWA) bounced +1.20%, recovering a portion of yesterday’s −2.35% drubbing.
DAX rallied +1.62% to 23,004, CAC +1.56% to 7,865, FTSE +1.18% to 10,112. Oil relief is unambiguously positive for energy-importing Europe. STOXX 50 (FEZ) was flat despite the green tape, suggesting institutional hedging against ceasefire narrative fragility.
Global markets unanimously pricing ceasefire progress and oil relief. The question is whether the 15-point peace plan has substance or is another head-fake. Yesterday’s session showed how fast sentiment can reverse in this regime.
| Market | Level | Change |
|---|---|---|
| Nikkei 225 | 53,750 | +2.87% |
| Hang Seng | 25,336 | +1.09% |
| Kospi | 5,642 | −0.67% |
| Australia (EWA) | — | +1.20% |
| DAX | 23,004 | +1.62% |
| CAC 40 | 7,865 | +1.56% |
| FTSE 100 | 10,112 | +1.18% |
| STOXX 50 (FEZ) | — | flat |
| Time (ET) | Release | Consensus | Prior | Significance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12:30 | Current Account | −$211B | −$226B | Low |
| 12:30 | Import Prices m/m | +0.6% | +0.2% | Low |
| 14:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | −1.3M | +6.2M | Medium |
| 20:10 | FOMC Member Miran Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 23:20 | President Trump Speaks | — | — | Medium |
Lighter calendar than yesterday’s PMI-heavy slate, but context matters. Crude Oil Inventories at 2:30 PM will either validate or challenge the oil selloff — consensus expects −1.3M draw after last week’s +6.2M build. Import Prices (+0.6% vs +0.2% prior) watched for early imported inflation signals. Trump’s evening remarks carry elevated impact given the Iran peace plan is front and center.
No watchlist names reporting today. Next watchlist earnings cluster: TSM (Apr 16), LMT, RTX, NOC (Apr 21), CACI (Apr 22).
| Ticker | Move | Sector | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|---|
| UUUU | +4.49% | Nuclear T2 | UEC capacity boost + broad uranium rally |
| SCCO | +4.30% | Crit Min T2 | Copper relief on Iran ceasefire; prolonged war had been threat to top miners |
| LUNR | +4.24% | Space T1 | NASA pivots to lunar base strategy (from Gateway); direct beneficiary |
| RKLB | +4.06% | Space T1 | SDA momentum + space sector broad bid |
| RPD | +4.03% | Cyber T3 | Bounce from deeply oversold ($5.94 vs $16.57 SMA200) |
| DNN | +3.73% | Nuclear T3 | Uranium sentiment strengthening |
| RDW | +3.63% | Space T3 | Moog taps Redwire for Meteor solar arrays |
| UEC | +3.41% | Nuclear T2 | Boosting capacity, advancing licensing |
| PL | +3.21% | Space T1 | Defense EO tailwind continues; RSI 64 showing momentum |
| NXE | +3.18% | Nuclear T2 | Uranium complex strengthening |
| FCX | +3.13% | Crit Min T1 | Copper bounce on ceasefire — Iran war risk to copper supply receding |
| FLNC | +3.10% | Storage T1 | Wood Mac: US to install 500 GWh new storage by 2031 |
| USAR | +3.07% | Crit Min T2 | U.S. joins $1T mineral security consortium |
| Ticker | Move | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| ARM | +11.96% | First in-house 136-core chip with Meta as lead partner; $15B revenue projection |
| TERN | +5.50% | Merck $6.7B acquisition (cancer pipeline) |
| INTU | +4.38% | Morgan Stanley names top pick, Overweight |
| Ticker | Move | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| PLTR | +1.86% | Pentagon formalizes Maven AI as core military system — investment grows to $13B from $480M in 2024. Massive validation. |
| ASML | +1.23% | SK Hynix places record $8B order for EUV lithography machines — validates HBM demand trajectory. |
| AMZN | News | Acquires humanoid developer Fauna Robotics — confirms Big Tech push into physical AI/robotics. |
| KTOS | +1.87% | Scores $447M Space Force award for missile tracking ground system. Anomalous z-score −3.3 flagged. |
| META | News | Lead partner for ARM’s 136-core data center chip targeting AI infrastructure. |
CEG −2.85% ($286) bucking the nuclear rally while peers surge — likely profit-taking after extended run, now well below SMA200 ($329) and SMA50 ($300). The Constellation-specific selloff may be unrelated to uranium fundamentals.
| Ticker | Price | vs SMA200 | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| PL | $32.85 | +126% | RSI 64, well above all SMAs — strongest technical posture of any Tier 1. Momentum but stretched. |
| LUNR | $18.68 | +44% | Above SMA20 ($17.96) and SMA50 ($18.41); RSI 49 — room to run. |
| RKLB | $68.75 | — | Still below SMA20 ($70.34) and SMA50 ($75.72); recovery attempt. |
| FLNC | $16.65 | +12% | Above SMA20 ($15.94) and SMA200 ($14.90); regaining ground. |
| FCX | $58.25 | — | Below SMA20/50 (~$60–61); bouncing off oversold from Iran threat. |
| Ticker | Price | SMA200 | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ZS | $141 | $257 | −45% |
| LEU | $201 | $250 | −20% |
| PANW | $158 | $189 | −16% |
| CRWD | $399 | $467 | −15% |
| CEG | $286 | $329 | −13% |
Oil relief is unambiguously positive for consumer and industrial sentiment. Russell 2000 leading (+1.34%) suggests genuine risk appetite, not just mega-cap driven. VIX declining sharply confirms fear is receding. However, gold’s simultaneous surge suggests smart money isn’t fully convinced on risk-on. The confluence of post-Triple Witch bearish window, AAPL buyback blackout tomorrow, and recession odds climbing demands a cautious hand even as the bounce gathers steam. This rally has real catalysts, but the structural headwinds are real.
U.S. sends 15-point Iran peace plan; Iran signals safe passage for non-hostile Hormuz ships — oil crashes 5%+. Recession odds climbing on Wall Street as economy shows cracks. Mortgage demand drops 10%+ as rates hit highest since October. KB Home warns war already hurting home sales, cuts guidance.
ARM unveils 136-core data center chip with Meta as lead partner — first in-house silicon, $15B revenue target (+12% premarket). SK Hynix places record $8B ASML EUV order and files for US listing. Pentagon commits $13B to Palantir Maven AI. OpenAI funding round hits $120B. Huawei launches Atlas 350 claiming 2.8x Nvidia H20 performance.
NASA halts Gateway to develop lunar base instead — strategic pivot benefits LUNR directly. Kratos wins $447M Space Force award for missile tracking. SDA slows satellite launches to focus on on-orbit performance. Counter-drone investment accelerating: AV LOCUST X3, JIATF counter-UAS contract.
US to install 500 GWh new storage by 2031 (Wood Mackenzie). Rio Tinto + Australian govts commit AU$2B for storage-firmed renewables. U.S. joins $1T mineral security consortium. Central banks sustain gold buying into 2026.
WTI −5.4% and Brent −5.5% are the biggest movers. Iran peace plan + safe passage signal driving selloff. Gold +3.94% to $4,575 alongside declining oil is unusual — suggests central bank structural buying and recession hedging rather than pure war premium.
Bitcoin nears $72K; $14B options expiry Friday with $75K as price magnet. Morgan Stanley, BNY, BlackRock all leaning into institutional crypto. Circle plunges −20% on draft Clarity Act threatening stablecoin rewards.