Morning Brief — Monday, April 13, 2026

📊

Pre-Market Snapshot

Risk-Off

S&P 500 Futures

6,815

−0.59%

Giving back Friday’s gains; Hormuz blockade weighing

Nasdaq 100 Futures

25,136

−0.58%

Tech selling in sympathy; growth vulnerable to yield repricing

Dow Futures

47,770

−0.75%

Broad risk-off; industrials and transports leading declines

Russell 2000 Futures

2,621

−0.88%

Small caps weakest — highest beta to economic disruption

VIX

21.20

+10.24%

Sharp spike above 21; geopolitical fear expanding

10Y Yield

4.317%

flat

Steady; oil-driven inflation could push higher

2Y Yield

3.806%

—

FRED timeout; prior close

30Y Yield

4.914%

flat

Long end unchanged; curve positively sloped

2s/10s Spread

+0.511%

—

Positive and widening; growth/inflation tension

DXY

98.73

−0.19%

Sub-99 despite risk-off; structural weakness

WTI Crude

$104

+7.76%

Above $100 — Hormuz blockade catalyst

Brent Crude

$102

+7.00%

Global supply disruption priced in

Gold

$4,742

−0.95%

Profit-taking from ATH; possible margin-call liquidation

Bitcoin

$70,844

−0.86%

Heavy selling pressure above $70K

Ethereum

$2,186

−0.85%

Following BTC lower; no independent catalyst

Key read: Oil breaching $100 after Trump ordered a naval blockade of Iran’s Hormuz ports is the dominant story. WTI +7.76% and Brent +7.00% are the largest single-session moves since the initial Iran-Saudi escalation. This is stagflationary — it simultaneously raises inflation expectations and threatens growth. VIX spiking +10.24% to 21.20 reflects the market catching up to risk it had shrugged off last week. DXY is still sub-99 despite risk-off — the dollar is not acting as a haven, suggesting markets see the US as part of the problem (blockade = self-inflicted supply shock). Gold pulling back despite geopolitical escalation may reflect margin-call liquidation or rotation into oil. Airlines are already cutting flights on the fuel shock. The inflation pass-through from $100+ oil directly threatens the Fed’s rate-cut path — less than two weeks before the Apr 28–29 FOMC meeting.

🌍

Overnight & Global

Risk-Off

Asia — Broadly Negative

Nikkei −0.74% and Hang Seng −0.90% both unwinding last week’s gains on Hormuz blockade news. Kospi is the notable exception at +1.34% — likely driven by Samsung/memory-specific flows rather than macro sentiment given the broad risk-off elsewhere.

Nikkei −0.74% Hang Seng −0.90% Kospi +1.34%

Europe — Red Across the Board

DAX −0.97% is the worst performer — German industrials most exposed to energy price shocks. CAC −0.79%, FTSE −0.42% (relatively better given UK energy sector weighting). UK has explicitly declined to support the US blockade, creating a NATO-tension overhang.

DAX −0.97% CAC −0.79% FTSE −0.42% STOXX 50 −0.35%

📅

Today’s Calendar

2 Events

Time (ET)	Event	Consensus	Prior	Impact
6:00	Existing Home Sales	—	—	Medium
18:20	FOMC Member Miran Speaks	—	—	Low

What matters today: The economic calendar is light — only two events. The real “event” today is the geopolitical backdrop: markets will trade the Hormuz blockade, oil price action, and diplomatic developments in real-time. FOMC Member Miran’s evening remarks could be market-moving if he signals concern about oil-driven inflation threatening the rate path. With the Apr 28–29 FOMC meeting just two weeks away, any hawkish shift in Fed commentary will be amplified. Last Friday’s CPI came in hot (3.4% y/y) — Miran may have to address whether oil at $100+ changes the Fed’s framework.

🔥

Pre-Market Movers

Oil Dominant

Key Movers

Ticker	Price	Change	Driver	Flag
/CLK26	$104	+7.76%	WTI crude — Hormuz naval blockade catalyst	—
/BZM26	$102	+7.00%	Brent crude — global supply disruption premium	—
$VIX	21.20	+10.24%	Fear gauge spiking on geopolitical escalation	—
MNTS	$3.59	+3.16%	Micro-cap momentum continuation	T3
DUOT	$6.65	−3.47%	Giving back recent gains	—

News-Driven Movers

Ticker	Direction	Catalyst	Flag
GS	Up	Tops estimates on record equities trading + better-than-expected investment banking — Q1 earnings season opener	—
INTC	Up	$100 billion April rally makes it market’s hottest stock; momentum continuation	—
LMT	Up	Historic Orion splashdown with NASA paves way for Moon return	T1
RKLB	Up	Wins contract for three more iQPS launches	T1
SHAK	Up	Rating upgrade on improved growth setup	—
SNDK	Up	Entering Nasdaq 100; replacing an AI software name	—
LLY	Down	Analyst says stock not prime for upgrade after recent pullback	—
BP	Down	Pressure mounting ahead of annual general meeting	—

Signal: LMT and RKLB are Tier 1 watchlist names with positive catalysts. GS earnings beat validates the bank earnings thesis. Oil is the dominant mover — energy names are the primary beneficiaries/victims depending on positioning. The absence of broad watchlist participation in pre-market movers reflects the geopolitical-driven nature of today’s tape.

🎯

Thesis Watchlist

No Earnings Today

Notable Tier 1 Moves & Anomalies

Ticker	Sector	Price	Change	Signal
AVGO	AI Infra	$368	−1.06%	z3.1 RSI 71 approaching overbought; well above all SMAs
FTNT	Cybersecurity	$76.50	−0.26%	z−3.1 RSI 39; below all SMAs; sustained weakness
NET	Cybersecurity	$169	+1.00%	z−5.5 Price far from historical norms; verify data
OKTA	Cybersecurity	$62.80	−0.21%	z−5.0 Deep below SMA200 ($87.72); structural decline

RSI Extremes: Near-Overbought (RSI >65): AVGO (71), VRT (67), FCX (67), LYSCF (66). Oversold (RSI <35): ZS (27), LDOS (32), IBM (35), CACI (35). ZS at 27 remains in deep capitulation territory. AVGO at 71 approaching overbought with a z-score anomaly warrants caution.

Key Technical Levels

Ticker	Price	SMA20	SMA50	SMA200	Position
NVDA	$186	$177	$182	$181	Just above all SMAs; holding uptrend
TSM	$368	$342	$351	$294	Well above all SMAs; strong uptrend into earnings
AVGO	$368	$322	$327	$330	RSI 71; extended above all SMAs — caution
ZS	$118	$142	$157	$247	Deep below all SMAs; RSI 27; capitulation
TSLA	$347	$371	$394	$397	Below all SMAs; RSI 37; downtrend intact
CEG	$283	$292	$295	$328	Below all SMAs; nuclear pullback continues
LUNR	$23.59	$19.91	$18.61	$13.58	Well above all SMAs; space momentum leader
FCX	$66.85	$58.57	$61.52	$49.26	Above all SMAs; copper demand thesis intact

Upcoming Watchlist Earnings (Next 3 Weeks)

Ticker	Sector	Date	Time
TSM	AI Infrastructure	Apr 16	Pre-market
RTX	Defense	Apr 21	Pre-market
NOC	Defense	Apr 21	Pre-market
VRT	AI Infrastructure	Apr 22	Pre-market
CACI	Cybersecurity	Apr 22	Pre-market
LMT	Defense	Apr 23	Pre-market
FOMC	Event	Apr 28–29	Decision Apr 29
LHX	Defense	Apr 30	Pre-market

⚡

Approaching Catalysts

10 Events

April 16

TSM Q1 Earnings

Validate AI silicon demand thesis. Reports in 3 days. Stock well above all SMAs heading in.

April 17

April OpEx

Monthly options expiration; pin risk across the board.

April 21

RTX & NOC Earnings

Defense sector earnings — Iran conflict spending narrative is now critical with active Hormuz blockade.

April 22

VRT & CACI Earnings

AI power infrastructure + defense IT spending. VRT RSI 67, above all SMAs.

April 23

LMT Earnings

Defense prime; Orion splashdown success + Gulf military posture. Watch backlog commentary.

April 28–29

FOMC Meeting

Oil at $100+ complicates rate-cut pricing. Hot CPI + Hormuz blockade may force hawkish signal. Two weeks away.

~April 30

AAPL Q2 FY26 Earnings (est.)

Blackout lifts; buyback resumes. Largest buyback program in history back online.

May 2026

Vast Haven-1 Launch

First commercial space station. LUNR, RKLB positioned as beneficiaries.

Mid-2026

SpaceX IPO Target

Valuation catalyst for RKLB, LUNR, PL, SPIR — space sector comp reset.

Mid-2026

NVIDIA Rubin Architecture

Next-gen GPU cycle. NVDA, TSM positioned for design wins.

🔮

Scenario Analysis

Hormuz Binary

Bullish Case

Diplomatic De-escalation

Ceasefire or blockade withdrawal signal

Oil reverses sharply below $95. VIX drops to 18–19. S&P rallies toward 6,900+. Defense names give back gains but broader market surges on relief. Rate-cut pricing stabilizes. DXY strengthens. GS earnings beat leads financials higher. Risk-on rotation into small caps and growth.

Base Case

Standoff Continues

Blockade holds but no military confrontation

Oil stays $100–107. VIX ranges 20–23. Markets chop sideways with bearish lean. Defensive rotation into energy, defense, gold. Fed speakers start hedging on rate cuts. Airlines and transports underperform. Earnings season provides stock-picking opportunities within the fog.

Bearish Case

Military Confrontation

Strait of Hormuz incident — 20% of global oil supply at risk

Oil spikes to $120+. VIX breaks above 30. S&P tests 6,500–6,600. 10Y yield spikes above 4.50% on inflation panic. Global recession fears surge. Gold breaks to new ATH above $4,800. Fed forced into emergency communication. Dollar weakness accelerates as markets view blockade as self-inflicted wound.

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Sector Snapshot

AI Infrastructure

Neutral — NVDA −1.29%, AVGO −1.06% (RSI 71, z3.1). MRVL +2.44% bucking trend

Cybersecurity

Weak — FTNT z−3.1, OKTA z−5.0, NET z−5.5, ZS RSI 27

Nuclear Energy

Neutral — CEG −1.13%, VST −1.31%; oil at $100 supports alt-energy thesis

Space

Mixed-Bullish — LMT Orion success, RKLB multi-launch win, SPIR +2.50%

Defense & Aero

Neutral-Bullish — LMT +0.85%, NOC +0.67%; Iran escalation supports thesis

Critical Minerals

Mixed — FCX −1.40%, ALB +1.24%; Iran war disrupting mining supply chains

Quantum Computing

Weak — IONQ −1.53%, RGTI −2.05%, QBTS −2.11%; risk-off

Robotics

Neutral — SYM −1.75%, ISRG −0.43% (RSI 36)

Energy Storage

Weak — TSLA −0.59% (RSI 37), FLNC −1.81%; oil surge mixed for EV

📰

News Highlights

Markets & Macro

Goldman Sachs tops estimates on record equities trading, better-than-expected investment banking
Treasury yields rise as collapse of Iran talks clouds inflation outlook
UK “not supporting” US Iran blockade; France pushes “multinational” Hormuz talks
Morgan Stanley says energy prices have probably peaked — contrarian view
Cramer flags overbought stocks amid fragile Iran truce

Geopolitics & Energy

Oil surges past $100 as Trump orders naval blockade of Iran’s Strait of Hormuz
Airlines cutting flights on fuel shock — direct consumer/economic impact
Commodity traders getting debanked due to Iran war — liquidity risk
Trump threatens 50% tariffs on China amid reports of arms shipments to Iran

Semiconductors & AI

Intel’s $100 billion April rally makes it the market’s hottest stock
SanDisk enters Nasdaq 100, replacing an AI software name
GPU Rowhammer attacks and silent data corruption in LLM training — emerging hardware risks

Defense & Space

Lockheed Martin nails historic Orion splashdown with NASA for Moon return
Rocket Lab wins contract for three more iQPS launches
Senate appropriator rejects NASA budget cuts — bipartisan spending floor
Europe must wean off US military “addiction” — Swedish DefMin

Crypto

Bitcoin anchors near $70K with $20M/hour selling pressure above $70K
Crypto markets stall as oil surges past $100 on Hormuz blockade
Clarity Act returns to US Senate — crypto regulatory framework advancing
Commodity traders shifting to stablecoins amid debanking

Cybersecurity

Critical Marimo pre-auth RCE under active exploitation — zero-day velocity
North Korea APT37 using Facebook for RokRAT malware delivery
OpenAI revokes macOS certificate after Axios supply chain incident

📖

Today’s Playbook

BEARISH with geopolitical tail risk

Oil +7–8% above $100 on the Hormuz blockade is stagflationary — it simultaneously raises inflation expectations and threatens growth. VIX +10.24%, all global indices red, airlines cutting flights, UK refusing to support the blockade, and DXY weakness despite risk-off all confirm the bearish bias. GS earnings provide a floor, but the geopolitical premium is expanding, not contracting. Trade with smaller size and wider stops.

Watch For

Any diplomatic developments on the Hormuz blockade — de-escalation would trigger a sharp risk-on reversal
Oil price action: $107–110 (2022 highs) is next resistance; $120 if blockade intensifies
10Y yield above 4.40% — the “inflation panic” trigger
FOMC Member Miran at 18:20 ET — any hawkish shift on oil-driven inflation will be amplified
Commodity trader debanking — if it spreads, it disrupts oil market liquidity
Trump 50% China tariff threat — dual escalation risk on top of oil

Key Levels

S&P 500: Futures 6,815 vs. SPY SMA200 at 664 (~6,640 equiv.) — well above; trend intact but under pressure
Nasdaq: Futures 25,136; QQQ SMA200 at 597 — healthy margin but growth vulnerable to yield spike
10Y Yield: 4.317% — watch for push above 4.40% if oil stays above $100
WTI: $104 — next resistance $107–110; if blockade intensifies, $120 not impossible
DXY: 98.73 — persistent sub-99 despite risk-off is a red flag for dollar credibility
Bitcoin: $70,844 — heavy selling above $70K; $65K support critical if risk-off accelerates

Risk Factors

Hormuz blockade escalation — any military confrontation sends oil to $120+ and triggers global supply crisis; 20% of world oil transits the Strait
US-China tariff escalation — 50% tariffs on China amid arms shipment reports would be a second-order shock on top of oil
Inflation expectations unanchoring — oil at $100+ with hot CPI (3.4% y/y) creates feedback loop; if UoM expectations break above 4%, Fed credibility at stake
FOMC in two weeks — Apr 28–29 meeting now a minefield; oil at $100 may force the Fed to signal a pause
Alliance fracture — UK declining blockade support, France pushing multilateral talks; unilateral US action raises political and military tail risk
Commodity trader debanking — disrupted oil market liquidity could amplify price moves

Market Data
Schwab API — US equities, futures, ETFs
Stooq — International indices (Kospi, FTSE, EWA)
CoinGecko — Bitcoin, Ethereum
FRED — Treasury yields, spreads (timeout on 2Y — used prior close)
News & Analysis
RSS feeds — 26 sources, all healthy
BigPic automated pipeline
Data Quality
Completeness: 100% (66/66 data points)
9 z-score anomalies flagged: AVGO (3.1), CRWV (3.2), ESTC (−3.1), ETN (3.1), FTNT (−3.1), GD (−3.7), NET (−5.5), OKTA (−5.0), SPIR (3.1)
FRED timeout on 2Y yield — used prior close
Collected 11:38 PT, April 13 2026