S&P 500 futures sit at 7,006 — less than 0.5% from all-time highs — after yesterday’s rally carried forward on strong bank earnings (BAC, Citi beat) and ASML raising 2026 guidance on surging AI chip demand. Trump says Iran war “very close to over,” pulling oil back below $100 (WTI $92.36), but Citadel’s Griffin warns of global recession if Hormuz stays shut. Today: Empire State Manufacturing, Beige Book, crude inventories, three Fed speakers, and a presidential speech at 6 AM ET. Quantum computing ripping across the board on NVIDIA Ising launch + DARPA HARQ. It’s tax deadline day. Bias is cautiously bullish but fragile — the rally is overbought and contingent on geopolitical resolution that hasn’t arrived.
Nikkei +0.44% extending its outperformance — Japanese equities continue to benefit from yen weakness and the BoJ’s dovish tilt. Hang Seng +0.29% modestly green. Kospi −0.82% is the notable laggard — Korean tech giving back gains after leading earlier in the week.
CAC 40 −0.59% and STOXX 50 −0.92% reflect continued luxury sector carnage — Hermes sinking 14% on Iran war impact is dragging French indices. DAX flat, FTSE barely positive at +0.14%. European equities underperforming as the Iran conflict creates a direct earnings headwind for continental companies.
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:30 | Import/Export Prices | — | — | Low |
| 6:00 | President Trump Speaks | — | — | Medium |
| 8:30 | Empire State Manufacturing | 0.3 | −0.2 | Medium |
| 8:30 | Import Prices m/m | 2.3% | 1.3% | Low |
| 8:30 | FOMC Member Barr Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 8:30 | FOMC Member Hammack Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 10:00 | NAHB Housing Market Index | 37 | 38 | Low |
| 10:30 | Crude Oil Inventories | +2.1M | +3.1M | Medium |
| 13:45 | FOMC Member Bowman Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 14:00 | Beige Book | — | — | Medium |
| 16:00 | TIC Long-Term Purchases | 36.6B | 15.5B | Low |
| Ticker | Price | Change | Driver | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SNAP | $6.20 | +10.62% | Layoffs 16% of workforce citing AI reducing repetitive work | — |
| QBTS | $18.47 | +8.84% | NVIDIA Ising launch catalyzing quantum sector | T3 |
| HOOD | $84.44 | +6.76% | Crypto rally + retail sentiment tailwind | — |
| OKLO | $61.99 | +5.82% | India’s PFBR criticality + nuclear sector momentum | T3 |
| IONQ | $37.76 | +5.59% | DARPA HARQ selection + first remote photonic interconnect | T1 |
| MNTS | $5.22 | +5.27% | Space investment narrative | T3 |
| RGTI | $17.75 | +5.22% | NVIDIA Ising + quantum ecosystem expansion | T2 |
| SMR | $10.75 | +4.88% | Sector-wide nuclear bid | T3 |
| QUBT | $8.47 | +4.44% | Quantum sector momentum | T3 |
| SYM | $58.81 | +3.98% | z-score 3.3 anomaly; above SMA200 ($57.58) | T1 z3.3 |
| RPD | $5.55 | +3.74% | Bounce from depressed levels | T3 |
| NET | $184 | +3.16% | Near SMA200 ($202) | T2 |
| Ticker | Direction | Catalyst |
|---|---|---|
| ASML | Up | Raises 2026 guidance — AI semiconductor demand “barnstorming” Q1 |
| BAC | Up | Q1 tops estimates; CEO says consumer banking “healthy” |
| C | Up | Q1 beats on fixed income strength |
| META | Up | Commits to 1 GW of custom chips with Broadcom — deepening AI infra investment |
| AMZN | Up | Acquires Globalstar for direct-to-device satellite; z-score 5.6 anomaly |
| GSAT | Up | Acquired by Amazon — direct-to-device satellite catalyst |
| IONQ | Up | Selected for DARPA HARQ program; first remote photonic interconnect |
| GS | Down | Q1 flags risks from Middle East conflict and inflation |
| HESAY | Down | Hermes sinks 14% as Iran war crushes luxury demand |
| Ticker | Sector | Price | Change | RSI | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IONQ | Quantum | $37.76 | +5.59% | 62 | DARPA HARQ catalyst. Still below SMA200 ($46.43) — recovery in progress, not complete |
| SYM | Robotics | $58.81 | +3.98% | 58 | z3.3 Just crossed above SMA200 ($57.58) — potential trend change |
| AVGO | AI Infra | $392 | +2.94% | 73 | z3.8 Overbought. Extended above all SMAs. Meta 1GW custom chip deal is direct catalyst |
| VRT | AI Infra | $311 | +0.20% | 71 | Approaching overbought. Well above all SMAs — sustained trend but stretched |
| ZS | Cybersecurity | $123 | +0.46% | 32 | Near oversold. Below all SMAs (SMA200 at $245 — down 50%). Structural underperformer |
| CACI | Cybersecurity | $534 | +0.08% | 35 | Near oversold. Below SMA20/50; approaching earnings Apr 22 from weak setup |
| Ticker | Price | SMA20 | SMA50 | SMA200 | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA | $196 | $179 | $182 | $181 | Above all SMAs; z-score 3.1 anomaly. RSI 68 approaching overbought |
| TSM | $382 | $345 | $352 | $295 | Trending strongly above all levels. Earnings tomorrow — key inflection |
| AVGO | $392 | $328 | $329 | $331 | RSI 73 overbought. z-score 3.8. Extended — earnings risk elevated |
| IONQ | $37.76 | $30.28 | $32.98 | $46.43 | Above SMA20/50 on DARPA catalyst; SMA200 at $46 is major resistance |
| CRWD | $399 | $402 | $406 | $461 | Range-bound near SMA20; still 15% below SMA200 |
| CCJ | $117 | $110 | $114 | $94.40 | Above all SMAs — uranium uptrend intact |
| FCX | $67.89 | $59.66 | $61.73 | $49.51 | RSI 68. Extended above all SMAs on copper strength |
| SYM | $58.81 | $52.55 | $53.67 | $57.58 | Just broke above SMA200 — watch for confirmation |
| Ticker | Sector | Date | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM | Critical | Apr 16 — TOMORROW | Pre-market |
| RTX | Defense | Apr 21 | Pre-market |
| NOC | Defense | Apr 21 | Pre-market |
| VRT | AI Infrastructure | Apr 22 | Pre-market |
| CACI | Cybersecurity | Apr 22 | Pre-market |
| LMT | Defense | Apr 23 | Pre-market |
| FOMC | Event | Apr 28–29 | Decision Apr 29 |
S&P 500 within 0.5% of ATH on strong earnings momentum (BAC, C, ASML all beating). VIX continuing to compress below 20 — fear premium unwinding. ASML raising guidance confirms AI chip demand is real. Oil below $100 removes the worst stagflation scenario. Meta 1GW Broadcom deal + Amazon-Globalstar acquisition signal Big Tech capex commitment unbroken. Trump’s “very close to over” comment is being taken at face value by the market. The fragility: MarketWatch flagging overbought territory, Citadel’s Griffin recession warning, Hermes −14% showing the war IS hitting earnings, and the rally is driven by hopes for peace, not an actual deal.