No Tier 1 macro release, but the tape is carrying a lot of signal: a historic semiconductor re-rating (INTC +28.8% pre-market, TXN +19%, TSM to record), P&G topping, Meta announcing a 10% workforce cut, and Iran/Hormuz keeping oil and gold bid. The week closes into the FOMC window (Apr 28–29) with AAPL buyback blackout still active.
Nikkei +0.97% at 59,716 despite Japan core CPI accelerating after five months of cooling — CoinDesk flags the print as feeding Iran-war energy jitters. Hang Seng +0.24%, Kospi −0.31%. The standout: TSMC on the record tape after Taiwan eased single-stock investment caps for funds.
DAX +0.31%, IEV +0.63%, STOXX 50 (FEZ) +0.21%, but CAC −0.36% and FTSE −0.22%. SAP printing +7.14% pre-market is the single biggest driver under the surface. Overall Europe is absorbing, not leading.
The TSM record print + SAP +7.14% combination anchors a thematic risk-on, not a broad one. Asia/Europe are echoing the US chip re-rating rather than driving their own. That keeps the setup clean: if US chip earnings momentum holds into cash open, the tape has global air-cover. If it breaks, there’s no second engine.
| Time (ET) | Event | Consensus | Prior | Impact |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4:00 | SNB Chairman Schlegel Speaks | — | — | Low |
| 8:30 | Retail Sales m/m | 0.9% | 1.1% | Low |
| 8:30 | Core Retail Sales m/m | 0.8% | 0.8% | Low |
| 10:00 | Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment | 48.5 | 47.6 | Medium |
| 10:00 | Revised UoM Inflation Expectations | — | 4.8% | Low |
| 11:00 | Bitcoin Futures Expiration | — | — | Low |
| Ticker | Price | Change | Sector | Tier / Context |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INTC | $86.02 | +28.81% | Semis | Z-ANOM US govt sitting on $26.5B paper gain on stake; confirmed by news |
| AMD | $346 | +13.23% | AI Infra | T3 Z 3.3 Chip-rally knock-on, vulnerable to gap-fill |
| SAP | $175 | +7.14% | Enterprise SW | Europe’s single biggest driver under the surface |
| OKLO | $80.50 | +5.28% | Nuclear | T3 Air Force ANPI microreactor tailwind |
| SMR | $13.39 | +5.26% | Nuclear | T3 Broad nuclear bid |
| MRVL | $173 | +4.63% | AI Infra | T2 Chip sympathy |
| USAR | $24.06 | +4.20% | Critical Minerals | T2 |
| OUST | $27.48 | +4.05% | Robotics | T3 Teradyne/Flex partnership tailwind |
| TSM | $398 | +4.05% | AI Infra | T1 Record tape on Taiwan fund cap easing |
| LEU | $228 | +4.01% | Nuclear | T1 Z-ANOM |
| ASML | $1,472 | +3.83% | AI Infra | T3 Semi-cap sympathy |
| PG | $150 | +3.82% | Consumer | Beat; sales +7% |
| RDW | $10.40 | +3.58% | Space | T3 |
| BE | $246 | +3.47% | Energy Storage | T3 |
| QS | $7.66 | +3.37% | Energy Storage | T2 |
| CRWV | $121 | +3.22% | AI Infra | T3 |
| QBTS | $19.90 | +3.06% | Quantum | T3 |
| MSTR | $178 | +3.03% | Crypto Proxy | Saylor “winter over” headline |
| Ticker | Price | Change | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| $VIX | 18.50 | −4.19% | Hedge monetization into chip rally — back sub-19 is green for risk |
| Ticker | Sector | Tier | When | Setup |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCCO | Critical Minerals | 2 | Before Open | EPS est and actual not yet populated. Next watchlist earnings clusters: May 5 (ANET, LDOS, CCJ, LEU) and May 7 (RKLB, MP, VST). |
| Ticker | Signal | Read |
|---|---|---|
| TSM | +4.05% · RSI 62 | At $398, well above SMA200 (301) and ~11% above SMA20 (357). Momentum extending but not yet extreme |
| LEU | +4.01% · RSI 61 | At $228, +19% above SMA20 (191) and still below SMA200 (252). Z-score anomaly flagged — verify print Z-ANOM |
| AVGO | +1.76% · RSI 77 | At $427, overbought. SMA50 at $340 is ~26% below. Watch for profit-taking or blow-off continuation |
| ANET | RSI 72 | At $175, similar overbought posture |
| LMT | RSI 21 | $529 vs SMA50 $631. Deep oversold cluster Z-ANOM |
| NOC | RSI 20 | $586 vs SMA50 $701. Deep oversold Z-ANOM |
| RTX | RSI 28 | Defense complex washed out — LHX reports Apr 30 and may set the tone |
| LHX | RSI 33 | Earnings Apr 30 Z-ANOM — treat levels as indicative until verified |
| LDOS | RSI 31 | Defense IT weakness persists Z-ANOM |
| IONQ | +2.59% · RSI 63 | At $44.76, now above SMA20/50 but still below SMA200 (46.52). Quantum tape still shows bid |
| VRT | +2.87% · RSI 67 | At $331. AI power play extending; SMA200 at $186, chart remains parabolic |
| Instrument | Level | Reference | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| SPX Fut | 7,186 | Cash 7,108 close | Above ~7,200 extends; fade under 7,100 in first 60 min is fail signal |
| NDX Fut | 27,342 | QQQ SMA200 601 | Leadership retested; watch AMD/NVDA/AVGO follow-through |
| RTY Fut | 2,805 | IWM SMA200 246 | Small caps participating, broad risk-on intact |
| WTI | $94.09 | $93 / $90 | Below 93 = short-term breakdown; above 90 Hormuz premium structurally intact |
| Gold | $4,728 | Consolidation high | MS cut outlook ~10% yesterday — flattening action showing up |
| BTC | <$77.5K | CoinDesk narrative | $2B 8-day ETF outflow + Saylor “winter over” = crowded long |
VIX regime normal (18.50), SPY trend bullish, risk appetite moderate. Futures breadth is broad (all four major futures green), VIX is compressing, DXY is softening, and the chip earnings triad (INTC/TXN/TSM) is doing the work an FOMC week normally does. That’s the setup for a gap-and-hold morning. Counter-pressure: it’s a witching-adjacent Friday with April seasonality weak, UoM sentiment is a live risk at 10:00, and Meta’s 10% layoff headline plus Nike’s second-round cuts are reminders the consumer/tech labor picture is not clean.