Monday, May 4, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

Set the Tone

A risk-off open into a heavy week. Futures soft, VIX +6.24% to 18.05, dollar bid, oil up 3%+ on a disputed Iran strike on a US warship in the Strait of Hormuz, BTC reclaims $80K — a confused tape pricing stagflation while AI/tech earnings momentum stays intact. PLTR and BWXT report BMO; today opens a four-day earnings sprint (ANET/CCJ/LDOS/LEU 5/5, FTNT 5/6, RKLB/VST/MP 5/7). Macro calendar light — Factory Orders, Williams, Senior Loan Officer Survey — so price action is driven by Hormuz headlines, BTC follow-through, and the PLTR/BWXT prints.

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Pre-Market Snapshot

Risk-Off Cocktail · Hormuz Tape
S&P 500 Futures
7,244
−0.19%
Hold above 7,200 keeps trend
Nasdaq 100 Futures
27,816
−0.07%
AI bid offsets risk-off
Dow Futures
49,420
−0.46%
Cyclicals lead lower
Russell 2000 Futures
2,808
−0.38%
Small-caps soft
VIX
18.05
+6.24%
Hedge-up, not regime shift
10Y Yield
4.378%
+0.00%
Curve unchanged
2Y Yield
3.800%
—
FRED prev close
30Y Yield
4.966%
+0.00%
Pinned below 5%
2s/10s Spread
+0.578%
—
+58 bp positive slope
DXY
98.27
+0.38%
USD safe-haven bid
WTI Crude
$105
+3.28%
Hormuz strike report
Brent Crude
$112
+3.51%
Supply shock pricing
Gold
$4,572
−1.57%
DXY taking hedge flow
Bitcoin
$80,000+
reclaim
$300M shorts liquidated
Ethereum
$2,335
+0.69%
Crypto risk-on
Key read: Classic geopolitical risk-off cocktail — equities soft (Dow leading lower at −0.46%, the cyclically-sensitive index taking the brunt), VIX gapping above 18 for the first time in over a week, dollar firmer (+0.38%), and oil up 3%+. The peculiar tell is gold −1.57% despite the rest of the risk-off setup — that combination (dollar up, gold down, oil up, VIX up) typically means the market is pricing supply shock more than systemic risk, and is willing to chase USD as the Hormuz hedge of choice. Curve unchanged (10Y 4.38%, 2s/10s +58bp) so this isn't a duration move yet.

Bitcoin data note: The Schwab feed shows "Bitcoin $34.89," clearly a proxy product mislabel (likely an ETF or futures contract scaled price), not spot BTC. CoinDesk, Opus feed, and crypto headlines confirm bitcoin reclaimed $80,000 with $300M in short liquidations — treat the spot reclaim as the operative number.
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Overnight & Global

Asia Firm · Europe Soft

Asia — Chip Records Pull the Tape

Kospi +2.12% and Hang Seng +1.24% are the clean leaders — Asian chipmakers continuing the records narrative (Samsung/SK hynix and Taiwan/TSM strength). Nikkei +0.38% extends the Big Tech AI capex glow.

Kospi +2.12% Hang Seng +1.24% Nikkei +0.38%

Europe — Hormuz Importer Pain

CAC −0.96%, STOXX 50 (FEZ) −0.88%, Australia (EWA) −0.92% — that combo of European industrials and Aussie commodity exposure rolling over together is the textbook Hormuz-pulse footprint where the supply-chain importer takes the hit before the producer gets paid. FTSE −0.14% holds up better thanks to its energy weighting; DAX flat at −0.02%.

CAC −0.96% FEZ −0.88% DAX flat

Takeaway — Supply Shock, Not Systemic

The clean read: Asia is trading AI-records continuation; Europe is trading Hormuz-importer pain. Add in DXY +0.38%, gold −1.57%, and 10Y unchanged, and what you get is the market pricing a supply shock concentrated in the Middle East, not a systemic-risk pulse. US futures soft but holding the bullish structural read.

AI records bid Hormuz pulse USD haven
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Today’s Calendar

Light Macro · Williams 12:50 · SLOOS 14:03
Time (ET) Event Consensus Prior Impact
10:00 Factory Orders m/m +0.5% 0.0% Low
12:50 FOMC Member Williams Speaks — — Medium
14:03 Senior Loan Officer Survey — — Medium
Calendar read: Genuinely light. Factory Orders at 10:00 (+0.5% vs 0.0% prior) won't move tape unless it surprises by a full point either direction. Williams at 12:50 ET is the bigger soft catalyst — a New York Fed president speaking with stagflation in headlines, Warsh-on-independence noise, and a pending Powell exit dynamic; anything that resembles guidance gets parsed. Senior Loan Officer Survey at 14:03 is the under-the-radar release worth flagging: tightening lending standards into CRE or C&I would feed the stagflation prints in the news cycle. Pure macro risk lives at 12:50 and 14:03, not the 10:00 print.
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Pre-Market Movers

EBAY +8.16% · OUST +7.83% · VIX +6.24%

To the Upside (>3%)

TickerPriceChangeSectorDriver
EBAY $113 +8.16% — Ryan Cohen / GameStop M&A speculation
OUST $28.52 +7.83% Robotics T3 Watchlist Clean 200-SMA breakout from $25.32
SAIA $475 +7.57% — Trading despite "I won't touch it" analyst note
VIX 18.05 +6.24% — Hormuz hedging
/BZN26 $112 +3.51% — Brent on Hormuz strike report
/CLM26 $105 +3.28% — WTI same supply-shock bid
BAH $80.80 +3.18% Cyber T2 Watchlist Recovery bounce (still below 200-SMA $91.46)

News-Driven Movers (Opus Feed)

  • VEEV — extending S&P 500 inclusion rally (+6.9% post-news from last week)
  • COIN, MSTR — bid on BTC reclaim of $80K; MSTR specifically paused buys ahead of Tue earnings
  • GME — up on Cohen's CNBC commentary that GameStop "could issue more stock" to acquire eBay; equity-funded acquisition trial balloon lifts EBAY +8.16%
  • HPE — buy reaffirmed on AI infrastructure thesis
  • VLO — bullish thesis citing "repeat of the 2022 mega-cycle"
  • GOOGL — flagged for potential post-Q1 correction
  • BYDDY — another tough sales month; consistent with our Energy Storage / China EV cooling narrative

Watchlist Tag-Ins

  • T3 OUST +7.83% to $28.52 — Robotics. Closed Friday at $25.32 (200-SMA exactly), so today's pop is a clean 200-day breakout. Worth flagging for momentum players.
  • T2 BAH +3.18% to $80.80 — Cyber. Still below its 200-SMA ($91.46), so this is a recovery bounce, not a trend break.
Movers signal: Two genuine watchlist hits on the >3% screen — OUST for the breakout, BAH for the recovery bounce. Outside of those, the action is news-driven: EBAY pop on Cohen's stock-funded M&A trial balloon, oil benchmarks both up 3%+ on Hormuz, and VIX hedging the geopolitical tail. MU +2.76% to $557 on the DRAM-shortage theme (5-yr SSD/HDD contracts, Nvidia EOL on Jetson modules) is the cleanest tactical read into the Tier-2 AI complex.
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Thesis Watchlist

PLTR + BWXT BMO · Defense Deeply Oversold

Earnings Reporting Today (BMO)

TickerSectorPre-MktRead
PLTR AI Infra T2 $148 · +2.43% Marquee print of the day. Trades $16 below 200-SMA ($164) — unusual among Tier-2 AI names. Beat-and-raise re-triggers AI capex flywheel; soft commercial guidance into govt-spending uncertainty becomes a sentiment hammer for the watchlist (NVDA reports 5/20).
BWXT Nuclear T2 $218 · +0.78% Sitting well above 200-SMA ($190) with the broader nuclear complex about to print through 5/11 (CCJ/LEU 5/5, VST 5/7, CEG 5/11). Clean beat lights the small-modular and uranium fuel cycle complex (DNN, UEC, NXE, SMR).

Tier 1 Notable Moves Pre-Market

TickerPriceChangeRead
MP $68.15 +2.28% Critical Minerals T1 — broke out cleanly above 200-SMA ($62.97), RSI 60. Reports 5/7. Tungsten/critical minerals headlines reinforcing the bid.
TSM $403 +1.34% AI Infra. RSI 63, well above 200-SMA ($305). Asian chipmaker records narrative.
VST $157 +1.09% Nuclear, RSI 47, sitting on 50-SMA ($160). Earnings 5/7.

Tier 2/3 Tag-Ins

  • MU +2.76% to $557 — DRAM shortage stories (5-year SSD/HDD contracts, Nvidia EOLs Jetson) lifting memory
  • PLTR +2.43% — into earnings (above)
  • CRWV +2.11% — AI infra Tier 3 momentum
  • GLW +2.00% — AI infra optical play
  • USAR +2.01% — Critical Minerals T2; consistent with MP/tungsten complex bid
  • BE +2.06% — Energy Storage T3, fuel cell momentum

Tier 1 Oversold Cluster (RSI < 35) — Defense Deepest of Cycle

TickerSectorSignalRead
NOC Defense RSI 21 $569 vs 200-SMA $621 — multi-week deep oversold DEEP OS
SYK Robotics RSI 21 $296 vs 200-SMA $365 — z-score −4.0 anomaly real, not bad tick DEEP OS
LMT Defense RSI 23 $515 vs 200-SMA $524 — sitting on long-term support DEEP OS
LHX Defense RSI 29 $313 vs 200-SMA $310 — testing 200-SMA from above
RTX Defense RSI 31 $174 vs 200-SMA $179 — just below 200-SMA
HON Quantum RSI 36 9 RSI points below 200-SMA test
FCX Critical Minerals RSI 37 Bounce candidate
FLNC Energy Storage RSI 37 Energy Storage T1 oversold
LDOS Cyber RSI 40 Reports 5/5 BMO
CACI Cyber RSI 39 $513 vs 200-SMA $551
IBM Quantum RSI 43 $232 vs 200-SMA $273
Defense divergence is the deepest of the cycle: LMT/NOC/LHX/RTX cluster is now deeper oversold than Friday. With LMT/RTX/NOC earnings 7/21 still 11 weeks out, this is more positioning/de-risking than fundamentals. Israel F-35/F-15IA additional purchases announced this morning + Pentagon $1.5T budget proposal are constructive setup, and the asymmetric R/R from these levels improves daily — but no bounce mechanism on the calendar this week. The complex needs a positive catalyst headline or a tape-wide oversold bounce to mean-revert.

Tier 1 Trading Materially Above 200-SMA — Momentum Intact

TickerPrice200-SMARead
PL$36.34$18.45+97% above — space momentum extreme
LUNR$25.50$14.73+73% above — lunar-data thematic
VRT$331$192+72% above — AI capex flywheel
SQM$92.51$61.70+50% above — energy storage T1
ALB$194$130+49% above — lithium leadership
TSM$403$305+32% above — AI Infra core
RKLB$79$62+27% above — reports 5/7
CGNX$56.24$44.22+27% above — robotics

Tier 1 Testing/Below 200-SMA — Trend Break Watch

CACI $513 vs $551 · IBM $232 vs $273 · LDOS $149 vs $179 · LMT $515 vs $524 · NOC $569 vs $621 · ZS $141 vs $234 (deepest below-200 of the group)

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Approaching Catalysts

Four-Day Earnings Sprint · NVDA + PANW May 20
Today — BMO & intraday
PLTR + BWXT Earnings
Tier 2 AI Infra and Nuclear marquee opener. PLTR is the AI capex thesis tell into NVDA 5/20; BWXT lights or fades the entire small-modular and uranium fuel-cycle complex into the cluster.
Today — 12:50 ET
FOMC Williams Speaks
NY Fed president into Warsh-on-independence noise + Powell exit dynamic. Anything that resembles guidance gets parsed.
Today — 14:03 ET
Senior Loan Officer Survey
Under-the-radar release. Tightening lending standards into CRE or C&I would feed the stagflation narrative.
May 5 — BMO
ANET, CCJ, LDOS, LEU Earnings
Heavy four-name watchlist cluster: AI Infra (ANET), Nuclear (CCJ, LEU), Cyber/Defense IT (LDOS RSI 40 OS).
May 6 — BMO
FTNT Earnings
Cybersecurity Tier 1 print — healthy setup test for the cohort.
May 7 — BMO
RKLB, VST, MP Earnings
Space, Nuclear, Critical Minerals all printing same day — thesis-cluster catalyst convergence. All Tier 1.
May 11
CEG Earnings
Nuclear Tier 1 caps the four-day sprint sequence.
May 20
NVDA + PANW Earnings
Megacap AI Infra + Cyber bookend. NVDA is the AI capex-cycle ($725B '26, $1T+ '27) verdict.
Jun 16–17
FOMC SEP / Triple Witch Convergence
No FOMC this week (Apr 28–29 just concluded). Next is SEP + Triple Witch convergence.
Today
"Sell in May" Window Opens
First Monday of May. Historical seasonality is a mild headwind into Oct 31 — weight as context, not signal.
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Scenario Analysis — Hormuz + PLTR/BWXT

Three-Force Pull · Single-Name Alpha
Bull Resolution

Hormuz fades, PLTR beat-and-raises

The warship report gets denied or de-escalated, oil pulls back below $100, and PLTR delivers a clean commercial guide.

  • WTI back below $100; energy gives back gains, transports rip
  • VIX back into 16-handle — risk-on extends into Tue cluster
  • AI Infra Tier 2 (PLTR, MU, CRWV, GLW) leads; flywheel narrative validates into NVDA 5/20
  • BTC consolidates above $80K; COIN/MSTR follow-through
  • Defense oversold (LMT/NOC RSI 21-23) catches a relief bid as positioning unwinds
Chop · Base

Hormuz fog persists, PLTR muddled

Index chops in a tight range as the three-force pull (BTC bullish / Hormuz bearish / no macro neutralizer) cancels out. Single-name dispersion drives the day.

  • ES holds 7,200-7,260 range; VIX sticky around 18
  • Energy long / transports short pair trade works
  • Watchlist alpha — OUST breakout, BAH bounce, MP/USAR critical-minerals leadership
  • Williams/SLOOS prints absorbed without regime change
  • Bias: trade single names, not the index
Bear Escalation

Hormuz confirms + PLTR misses commercial

Strike-on-warship gets confirmed, oil through $110, PLTR delivers a soft commercial guide into government-spending uncertainty.

  • WTI $110-115, VIX 20+ — first regime warning
  • AI capex flywheel narrative cracks ahead of NVDA 5/20
  • Stagflation pricing extends; long end finally pressured
  • ES break of 7,200 cracks the bullish structural read
  • Defense complex compounds before bouncing — trying to call the bottom is risky without catalyst
Three forces pulling in different directions: Bullish pull from BTC reclaim of $80K, Asian chip records, AI capex narrative, MS calling tech earnings "eclipsing Iran war as market driver." Bearish pull from Hormuz warship report, defense oversold positioning unwind, Berkshire's $397B cash, Fed independence noise. Neutralizer: no major macro print today. Index probably chops in a tight range; the alpha is in (a) PLTR/BWXT prints, (b) Hormuz oil-shock follow-through, (c) potential defense oversold bounce on positive headlines.
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Sector Snapshot

AI Infrastructure
Mixed-to-firm. PLTR ($148 +2.43%) the key tell; TSM +1.34%, VRT +0.70%, MU +2.76%, CRWV +2.11% bid; AVGO −0.54%, NVDA −0.10% flat. ASML −1.70% on European tape. DRAM shortage lifting memory.
Cybersecurity
Quiet, BAH +3.18% (T2) standout on recovery bounce. Tier 1 mostly red small. LDOS RSI 40 OS into 5/5 print. CISA Copy Fail Linux + cPanel + Instructure breach + crypto-scam crackdown thematic.
Defense & Aerospace
Deeply oversold (LMT/NOC/LHX/RTX RSI 21-31). T2 mixed (AVAV +0.97%, KTOS +1.01%). Israel F-35/F-15IA additional purchases + Pentagon $1.5T budget tailwind not enough yet.
Critical Minerals
Strong leadership. MP +2.28% (T1) breaking out, USAR +2.01% (T2), ALB flat at $194 (50%+ above 200-SMA). FCX RSI 37 OS-bounce candidate. Tungsten deal + Mercuria-Venezuelan offtake constructive.
Nuclear Energy
BWXT prints today (T2 $218 +0.78%). T1 firm: VST +1.09%, CEG +0.38%. Heavy cluster 5/5-5/11. Sector setup intact for constructive earnings season.
Energy Storage
TSLA $392 +0.19% holding 50-SMA. BE +2.06%, USAR-adjacent. SQM $92.51 (50%+ above 200-SMA). FLNC RSI 37 OS. BYD sales decline continues.
Quantum Computing
Mixed. IONQ $46 RSI 65 still strong; HON RSI 36 OS; IBM RSI 43. IBM celebrating decade of Quantum Cloud — narrative supportive, price not yet.
Robotics & Automation
OUST +7.83% (T3) 200-SMA breakout. SYK RSI 21 z-flagged but real — robotics-health T1 exhausted. CGNX +0.54%, ISRG +0.32%. Locus + Geekplus warehouse-fulfillment thematic.
Space
RKLB $79 +0.24% ahead of 5/7 earnings. PL −1.52% lone red. Vantor $70M NGA contract + Falcon 9 South Korean satellite launch broaden govt-data-services thematic.
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News Highlights

Markets & Macro

  • "Markets in early stages of pricing stagflation" [MarketWatch] — oil up + dollar up + gold down is the supply-shock + dollar-haven combo
  • Oil climbs on disputed Iran warship strike report [MarketWatch]
  • Stocks down pre-bell, traders await fresh labor data [Yahoo Finance]
  • Warsh's Fed-independence comments met with confusion [CNBC]
  • Cohen / GameStop floats issuing stock to buy much-larger eBay [CNBC] — driving EBAY +8.16%
  • AI / Persian Gulf outlooks cap pre-bell, Asia up / Europe off [Yahoo Finance]

Earnings & Movers

  • Veeva Systems extends post-S&P-inclusion rally
  • HP Enterprise reaffirmed Buy on AI dominance thesis
  • Valero "repeat of 2022 mega-cycle" bull thesis published
  • Saia analyst: "won't touch it" until road to fair valuation clears (despite +7.57% pre-mkt)
  • Alphabet "post-Q1 boost might be corrected"

Defense & Aerospace

  • Israel announces additional F-35 and F-15IA purchases [Breaking Defense]
  • European automakers eyeing defense market with caution
  • Pentagon $1.5T budget proposal still tailwind

Cybersecurity

  • Critical cPanel vulnerability targeting government and MSP networks [Hacker News]
  • CISA: "Copy Fail" Linux flaw now exploited to root systems [BleepingComputer]
  • Global crackdown: 276 arrests, 9 crypto scam centers closed, $701M seized
  • Microsoft confirms April Windows updates cause backup failures
  • Instructure data breach claimed by ShinyHunters

Crypto

  • Bitcoin reclaims $80,000; $300M in short liquidations [CoinDesk]
  • XRP above $1.40 on rising volume; DOGE +4% leading majors
  • Strategy pauses BTC buys before Tuesday earnings — coincidence or signal
  • BTC ETF inflows recovering but incomplete
  • Peter Brandt sees $250K BTC, but only after a bottom later this year
  • MS Oldenburg: BTC on US bank balance sheets "is coming, just not yet"

Energy

  • WTI +3.28% to $105; Brent +3.51% to $112 on Hormuz strike report
  • Trump pledging to "guide" ships through Hormuz
  • India burning more coal — supply-shock spillover
  • Valero "repeat of 2022 mega-cycle" thesis

Semiconductors

  • Memory shortage drives 5-year SSD/HDD supply contracts [Tom's Hardware]
  • Nvidia EOLs Jetson AI processors due to DRAM shortages
  • Anthropic eyes DRAM-less inference chips from Fractile

Critical Minerals

  • Trump-linked tungsten deal highlights US processing gap
  • Mercuria/Heeney sign Venezuelan commodity offtake agreements
  • Inspiration Mining drilling at Rottenstone North

Space

  • Vantor wins $70M NGA data-delivery enhancement award
  • Falcon 9 launches South Korean satellite + 45 rideshare payloads
  • NGA opening programs to more vendors / pushing AI for "always-on" intelligence

Energy Storage

  • BYD sales decline continues [CleanTechnica]
  • First Tesla Semi off high-production line
  • Solid-state batteries narrative continues
📖

Today’s Playbook

CAUTIOUSLY DEFENSIVE · DISPERSION-DRIVEN · Fade Index, Trade Single Names

VIX 18.05 normal regime (+6.24% — jolt but not a regime shift); SPY trend bullish; risk appetite moderate. Setup wants to fade strength on pure index plays today and trade single names instead. Three forces pull in different directions: BTC reclaim + AI records bullish; Hormuz shock + defense unwind bearish; light macro neutralizer. Index probably chops in a tight range; alpha is in PLTR/BWXT prints, Hormuz oil-shock follow-through (energy long, transports short), and a potential defense oversold bounce on positive headlines.

Bull Case Watch-Fors

  • Hormuz warship report gets denied/de-escalated — oil back below $100, VIX into 16-handle
  • PLTR beat-and-raise — AI capex flywheel narrative validates into NVDA 5/20
  • BTC consolidation above $80K — COIN/MSTR follow-through
  • Defense oversold reversion (LMT RSI 23, NOC RSI 21) on positive headlines
  • Asian chip records continue — TSM +1.34%, MU +2.76% extends

Bear Case Watch-Fors

  • Hormuz strike confirmed — WTI $110-115, VIX 20+, first regime warning
  • PLTR misses commercial guidance — AI capex narrative cracks ahead of NVDA 5/20
  • Stagflation extends — SLOOS shows tightening lending; long end pressured
  • Defense oversold compounds before bouncing — no calendar mechanism this week
  • Memory shortage cuts both ways — lifts MU but signals real input-cost inflation

Key Levels to Watch

  • ES 7,244 — hold above prior close 7,230 keeps the bullish structural read; break of 7,200 cracks trend
  • VIX 18.05 — sustained move above 20 on Hormuz escalation flips the regime read
  • WTI $105 — hold above $100 cements supply-shock pricing; fail back below says fog-of-war discount
  • DXY 98.27 — +0.38% safe-haven bid; moves with 10Y inversely
  • 10Y 4.378% — SLOOS + Williams are the soft tells
  • BTC $80K — reclaim zone; $300M shorts cleared

Risk Factors (Ranked)

  • Iran/Hormuz escalation. Disputed warship strike, Trump pledging to "guide" ships, India burning more coal — binary headline. Confirmation → oil $110-115, VIX 20+. Denial fades within session.
  • Stagflation narrative pickup. MarketWatch flagged "early stages of pricing stagflation"; S&P 2026 EPS bumped to 22.6%. Gap between equity optimism and bond/oil signaling widens. SLOOS today is the soft tell.
  • PLTR earnings into a stretched setup. T2 AI, +2.43% pre-bid, government-contracting headline-sensitive. Disappointment cascades into AI capex narrative pre-NVDA 5/20.
  • Defense oversold can deepen before bouncing. LMT/NOC RSI 23/21 extreme but can compound; calling the bottom without a catalyst is risky.
  • Memory shortage cuts both ways. Lifts MU (+2.76%) but signals real input-cost inflation that eventually pressures AI server margins.
  • Fed independence noise. Warsh comments, Pirro dropping Powell investigation appeal, Powell's "parting shot" — on a quiet calendar, headlines drive disproportionate moves.
  • Market Data
  • Schwab API — US equities, futures, ETFs, $TNX/$TYX
  • Stooq — International indices (DXY, Kospi, FTSE)
  • CoinGecko — BTC, ETH
  • FRED — Treasury yields (timed out on this run; 2Y at prior close)
  • News & Analysis
  • RSS feeds — CNBC, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, CoinDesk, Tom’s Hardware, Breaking Defense, SpaceNews, ANS, The Hacker News, BleepingComputer, Seeking Alpha, Reuters, Barron’s, Quantum Insider, Mining Tech, Northern Miner, Defense.gov, CleanTechnica
  • Cleveland Fed economic calendar
  • BigPic automated pipeline
  • Data Quality
  • Completeness: 100% (66/66 data points)
  • FRED timed out — no critical fields impacted; 2Y carried at previous close
  • Schwab returned errors on 2 of 321 calls (acceptable)
  • Anomaly flags: PWR $752 z 3.5 (T3 AI Infra outlier, multi-week move) and SYK $296 z −4.0 (real, RSI 21 robotics-health T1 weakness)
  • Bitcoin Schwab feed ($34.89) is a proxy product mislabel — spot BTC reclaimed $80,000 per CoinDesk; treat spot reclaim as operative
  • Schwab known issue: $UVOL/$DVOL/$TRIN overflow on ~11% of days — verify before sizing breadth trades (IB potential fallback)
  • Collected 11:38:04 PT, May 4 2026