Wednesday, May 13, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

PPI After the CPI Shock, Chair Vote, 30-Y Auction

Core PPI at 8:30, Fed Chair nomination vote 12:29, 30-Y auction 13:01 — the morning-after read on yesterday's hot CPI gets stacked under a political event and a long-duration auction in the same hour. Futures want to grind higher (NQ +0.65%) despite bonds wounded (30-Y at 5.031%); Kospi +4.37% on AI/semi capex, but BABA −3.05% as core profit collapses 84%. VIX 17.90 contained — this is a binary day with asymmetric headline risk into the 12:29–1:01 PM window.

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Pre-Market Snapshot

NQ-Led Tape · 30-Y at 5.03% · Gold & Crude Bid
S&P 500 Futures
7,441
+0.19%
Cash 7,401 — ~+40 indicated
Nasdaq 100 Futures
29,360
+0.65%
Mega-cap AI leads
Dow Futures
49,728
−0.28%
Rate-sensitive cyclicals lag
Russell 2000 Futures
2,856
+0.20%
Small-caps tracking SPX
VIX
17.90
−0.50%
Contained — normal regime
10Y Yield
4.463%
+0.00%
Steady-firm post-CPI
2Y Yield
3.800%
—
FRED prev close (fallback)
30Y Yield
5.031%
+0.00%
Above 5 line into auction
2s/10s Spread
+0.663%
—
Steepener intact
DXY
98.34
+0.14%
Firm — pressuring EM/gold
WTI Crude
$102
−0.06%
Holding above $100
Brent Crude
$108
+0.19%
Iran tape stays bid
Gold
$4,708
+0.45%
Inflation hedge still bid
Bitcoin
$80,634
−0.02%
Oscillating $80–82K
Ethereum
$2,304
+0.86%
Modest catch-up bid
Key read: A clean NQ-led tape — futures lead +0.65% while Dow lags −0.28%, the kind of divergence consistent with mega-cap AI absorbing flows and rate-sensitive cyclicals giving back yesterday's hot-CPI distribution. The 30-Y at 5.031% is the headline number to keep on the desk; with today's 30-Y auction at 13:01 ET, any indirect-bidder slippage will telegraph to long duration immediately. Gold pushing higher to $4,708 (+0.45%) alongside firm crude (Brent $108) says inflation hedges remain bid even with the DXY firm at 98.34 — stagflation flavor still on the menu. VIX at 17.90 is a contained "normal" read — risk is on, but the path through 12:29 ET is binary, not euphoric.

Data-quality callout: FRED feed timed out (2Y carried at prior close). Five pre-market anomaly z-scores flagged: CSCO (99.07), DELL (244), LUNR (34.39), QS (9.03), RKLB (125). LUNR / QS / RKLB match the news flow (genuine breakouts). CSCO and DELL prints look stale or split-adjusted — verify at the cash open before sizing. Completeness 100% (66/66).
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Overnight & Global

Kospi +4.37% · SoftBank $46B Gain · Alibaba −84%

Asia — Kospi Melt-Up, China Soft

The Kospi +4.37% is the outlier of the morning — a notable melt-up tied to AI/semi capex headlines (Lutnick on bringing semi manufacturing back, lingering SoftBank/OpenAI gain residue) layered against a South-Korean political-economy headline about a "citizen dividend" from AI windfall. Nikkei +0.84% rode SoftBank's $46B Vision Fund gain driven by the OpenAI position. Hang Seng managed only +0.15% as Alibaba's core profit plunged 84% despite AI/cloud growth; Tencent revenue soft.

Kospi +4.37% Nikkei +0.84% Hang Seng +0.15%

Europe — Split, Currency-Driven

DAX +0.70% pulled by exporters, but CAC −0.37% and FEZ −0.39% softer. Bond markets are "on edge" as King Charles set out the UK government's agenda, with FTSE just barely positive at +0.07%. The European weakness is largely currency-driven (DXY firm) rather than fundamental. Australia (EWA) −0.65% tracking commodity rotation. Cross-currents but no broad heavy bid.

DAX +0.70% CAC −0.37% FTSE +0.07%

Takeaway — AI Capital Re-Stacks Globally

The cleanest read: SoftBank's $46B OpenAI gain is the single largest public-market validation of the AI trade, and the Kospi rip pulls the HBM/semi capex thesis right through to U.S. NQ leadership pre-bell. The China megacap story (Alibaba core profit −84%) is the counterweight — AI/cloud growth no longer covers operating decay. Pair that with European softness driven by DXY rather than data, and you get a constructive AI-up / China-down / Europe-meh global setup that supports the NQ-led pre-bell.

AI capex narrative SoftBank $46B BABA core −84%
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Today’s Calendar

Core PPI 8:30 · Chair Vote 12:29 · 30-Y Auction 13:01
Time (ET) Event Consensus Prior Impact
04:30 PPI Report (advance) — — Medium
8:30 Core PPI m/m 0.3% 0.1% Critical
8:30 PPI m/m 0.5% 0.5% Critical
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories −2.0M −2.3M Low
11:30 FOMC Member Collins Speaks — — Low
12:29 Fed Chair Nomination Vote Pass — High
13:01 30-Y Bond Auction — 4.88 / 2.4 BTC Medium
13:15 FOMC Member Kashkari Speaks — — Low
21:10 FOMC Member Goolsbee Speaks — — Low
The two events that matter: (1) Core PPI at 8:30 ET — consensus +0.3% m/m vs +0.1% prior, so a re-acceleration is already priced in by the forecast. A +0.4% or higher print would echo yesterday's hot CPI and push the 30-Y through 5.05%; a +0.1% to +0.2% reading is the modest relief valve bulls need. (2) Fed Chair Nomination Vote at 12:29 ET — the Senate already confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Board Monday, clearing the path. Market expectation: "Pass." Headline risk is asymmetric (an unexpected hiccup jolts rates and dollar). The 30-Y auction follows just 32 minutes later — a poorly-bid auction stacked on top of a hot PPI and Chair drama would be the day's bearish tail.
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Pre-Market Movers

Space Sector Rip · AI Infra Bid · BABA Down 3%

To the Upside (>3%)

TickerPriceChangeSectorDriver / Flag
QS $9.03 +7.24% Energy Storage T2 Energy Vault/SoftBank BESS read-through Verify
LUNR $34.39 +7.17% Space T1 2.25x SMA-200 ($15.27) Verify
AAOI $201 +6.84% Optics AI infra / fiber-optic sympathy
SPIR $18.76 +6.33% Space T2 Earnings BMO — buy-rumor
RKLB $125 +6.29% Space T1 RSI 73 · ~2x SMA-200 ($63.71) Verify
OUST $28.69 +5.87% Robotics T3 Lidar / autonomy lead
MU $807 +5.24% AI Infra T2 TSMC Arizona + chip demand
MNTS $5.61 +5.06% Space T3 Cohort momentum
GLW $208 +4.80% AI Infra T2 Optical fiber AI play
CRWV $112 +3.83% AI Infra T3 Hyperscaler GPU cloud
RDW $12.00 +3.81% Space T3 Sector follow-through
PL $42.13 +3.56% Space T1 Healthy structure — RSI 59

To the Downside (>3%)

TickerPriceChangeSectorDriver / Flag
BABA $131 −3.05% China Mega-Cap Core profit −84% — sole notable laggard

Watchlist Tag-Ins

  • Space basket on fire — six watchlist names up 3.5–7%: LUNR, SPIR, RKLB, MNTS, RDW, PL — cohort melt-up
  • AI Infra pushing higher — MU +5.24%, GLW +4.80%, CRWV +3.83% — TSMC Arizona + chip-demand narrative
  • QS +7.24% Energy Storage breakout — SoftBank non-lithium BESS launch + Energy Vault South Africa wins
  • BABA −3.05% — China megacap divergence: AI/cloud growth no longer covers operating decay
  • Anomaly z-flags: CSCO ($99.07), DELL ($244), LUNR ($34.39), QS ($9.03), RKLB ($125). LUNR/QS/RKLB match news flow; CSCO/DELL prints look stale or split-adjusted — verify at the open
Watchlist signal: Six Space names and three AI Infra names >3% to the upside pre-bell — this is sector-wide cohort behavior, not single-name dispersion. The pre-bell tape says "AI capex + Space launch / data infrastructure stays bid regardless of macro", which is the structural read SoftBank's $46B OpenAI gain reinforces. BABA −3% is the lone watchlist red — not a sector tell. The setup favors continuing-momentum trades in Space/AI-Infra as long as Core PPI prints ≤0.3%.
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Thesis Watchlist

USAR & SPIR BMO · NVDA 5/20 The Big One

Earnings Reporting Today

TickerSectorTimeEPS EstRead
USAR Critical Minerals BMO — $25.79 (+0.94%) — well above SMA-200 of $18.62. Confidence vote into the print
SPIR Space BMO — $18.76 (+6.33%) — well above SMA-200 of $11.26 · T2 · Buy-rumor setup

Notable Tier 1 Moves — Space & AI Infrastructure

TickerSectorPriceRSIRead
RKLB Space $125 (+6.29%) 73 Nearly 2x SMA-200 ($63.71). Extended but not yet manic. NVDA-like exposure for launch
LUNR Space $34.39 (+7.17%) 67 2.25x SMA-200 ($15.27) — catalyst-light day, pure technical momentum
PL Space $42.13 (+3.56%) 59 Healthy structure — above all moving averages, RSI middle range
NVDA AI Infra $225 (+2.12%) 69 Walking up the channel into May 20 earnings. SMA-20 $206 / SMA-200 $185
MU AI Infra (T2) $807 (+5.24%) — Tier 2 leader — TSMC Arizona / chip-demand narrative
VRT AI Infra $375 (+2.06%) 70 Extended ~87% above SMA-200 ($200). At overbought threshold

Tier 1 Oversold Cluster (RSI ≤ 30) — Coiled Spring

TickerSectorRSIRead
LDOS Cybersec 22 $131 — below SMA-20/50/200 DEEP OS
NOC Defense 26 $558 — deep correction from SMA-50 ($662) · Defense T1 coiled spring

Overbought (RSI ≥ 75) — Cybersec Cluster Stretched Into Earnings

TickerSectorRSIRead
FTNT Cybersec 81 Most overbought name in the basket
PANW Cybersec 79 Earnings 6/2 — vulnerable to disappointment
CRWD Cybersec 77 $544 vs SMA-200 $459 — earnings 6/3
CGNX Robotics 74 Rare robotics melt-up sustained
RKLB Space 73 +6.29% pre-mkt · ~2x SMA-200 Verify

Key Technical Levels (Tier 1)

  • NVDA $225 — SMA-200 $185, long-term support intact into 5/20 earnings
  • RKLB $125 — SMA-200 $63.71, well-extended · needs cohort sustain
  • CRWD $544 — SMA-200 $459 · RSI 77 caution into 6/3
  • LDOS $131 — SMA-200 $178 · broken, mean-reversion candidate
  • NOC $558 — SMA-200 $621 · broken, deep oversold (RSI 26)
  • FCX $66.24 — SMA-200 $51.28 · copper-record beneficiary
  • OKLO $74.19 — SMA-200 $86.50 · below 200, regulatory tailwind
Watchlist setup: Two BMO prints (USAR, SPIR) — SPIR the higher-beta tape risk given the +6.33% buy-the-rumor pre-mkt. The structural tape is a binary cluster bet: Cybersec Tier 1 broadly overbought (FTNT 81 / PANW 79 / CRWD 77) heading into the May–June earnings cluster (PANW 6/2, CRWD 6/3, ZS 5/26); Defense Tier 1 (NOC 26 / LDOS 22) the inverse coiled spring if geopolitical tape lights up. NVDA at $225 with RSI 69 walks into the May 20 print — earnings risk is now the dominant variable on the index complex.
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Approaching Catalysts

Core PPI Today · NVDA 5/20 · FOMC 6/16–17
Today — 8:30 ET
Core PPI — The Morning-After CPI Read
Consensus +0.3% m/m vs +0.1% prior — re-acceleration already baked in. A +0.4% or higher pushes 30-Y through 5.05%; +0.1–0.2% is the modest relief valve bulls need. Yesterday's hot CPI is the priming context.
Today — 12:29 ET
Fed Chair Nomination Vote
Warsh confirmed to Board Monday — consensus passes. Headline risk asymmetric: an unexpected hiccup would jolt rates and dollar in thin Wednesday tape. 32-minute window into the 30-Y auction.
Today — 13:01 ET
30-Year Bond Auction
The day's bond-market plumbing test. Stacked on top of Chair-vote drama and a potentially hot PPI — a tail here would be the bearish triple-stack. Prior 4.88 / 2.4 BTC. Watch indirect-bidder takedown.
Today — 11:30 / 13:15 / 21:10 ET
Three Fed Speakers (Collins, Kashkari, Goolsbee)
Layered through the day. Kashkari at 13:15 sits right behind the auction tape — any unscripted comment on rate path could amplify reaction.
Fri May 15
Monthly OpEx
Index option expiration — positioning into Friday close. Gamma flips matter into a tape priced for re-accel inflation.
Wed May 20
NVDA Earnings (BMO) — 5 Trading Days
Single largest event for the AI Infrastructure Tier 1 list. Stock $225 / RSI 69 going in. The Kospi/HBM/AI-capex sentiment building this week is the setup tell.
Tue May 26
ZS Earnings — First Cyber Print
Opens the back-to-back cybersec cluster (ZS 5/26, PANW 6/2, CRWD 6/3). FTNT (RSI 81) and PANW (RSI 79) already stretched.
Tue Jun 2 · Wed Jun 3
PANW · AVGO + CRWD Earnings Cluster
PANW currently RSI 79, vulnerable. AVGO + CRWD Wednesday is the double-header for AI Infra and Cyber.
Jun 16–17
FOMC + SEP (Triple-Witch Week)
Most consequential calendar event in the next 30 days. Coincides with June Triple Witch.
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Sector Snapshot

AI Infrastructure
Strong bid — MU +5.24%, GLW +4.80%, CRWV +3.83%, NVDA +2.12%, MRVL +2.30%, VRT +2.06%. TSMC Arizona + lingering SoftBank/OpenAI gain
Space
Tape leader — RKLB +6.29%, LUNR +7.17%, SPIR +6.33%, MNTS +5.06%, RDW +3.81%, PL +3.56%. Starship v3 date + Quantum Space Tulsa + SpaceX/FCC $2.4B escrow
Cybersecurity
Mixed, overbought — CRWD −0.40%, FTNT −0.32%, PANW −0.43%; BAH +1.27%, LDOS +1.69%. RSI 77–81 cluster vulnerable
Defense & Aerospace
Weak, oversold — LMT −0.37%, NOC −0.05%, LHX +0.56%, RTX −0.12%. Iran $29B + Golden Dome $1.2T narratives haven't matched price yet
Energy Storage
Strong — QS +7.24%, TSLA +1.25%, ENPH +2.49%, BE +2.11%. Energy Vault South Africa win + SoftBank non-lithium BESS launch
Nuclear Energy
Quiet positive — SMR +1.92%, TLN +1.83%, LEU +1.53%, NXE +1.46%, OKLO +0.76% (regulatory clearance). DOT pursuing SMRs for shipping
Quantum Computing
Constructive — RGTI +2.41%, QUBT +2.20%, QBTS +1.74%, IONQ +1.61%. Fresh capital: NVision $55M, Photonic $200M+, Casimir $12M
Robotics & Automation
Two-track — OUST +5.87% standout, TER +2.11%; ISRG −0.21%, SYK −0.61%, SYM +0.16% on weak RSI. Symbotic crossed 2B cases
Critical Minerals
Modest green — SCCO +1.40%, FCX +0.32%, MP +0.09%, ALB −0.35%. Copper near record on China demand; Grasberg ramp by 2027
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Scenario Analysis — The PPI / Chair / Auction Triple-Stack

Core PPI 0.3% · Chair Vote 12:29 · 30-Y 13:01
Bull · Cool PPI + Clean Chair + Strong Auction

Core m/m prints +0.1–0.2% & auction comes through

The relief-valve setup. Yesterday's CPI looks like an isolated event; 30-Y back under 5%; AI / Space melt-up resumes with cyclical mean-reversion squeeze adding fuel.

  • SPX futures hold 7,441 and push toward 7,460+ on the cash open
  • 10Y back under 4.40%; 30-Y closes under 5%
  • Defense oversold cluster (NOC 26, LDOS 22) gets violent mean-reversion squeeze
  • NVDA into 5/20 print at $230+ with broad index support
  • VIX fades into 16-handle going into Friday OpEx
  • Cybersec overbought cluster (FTNT 81 / PANW 79) holds its ceiling
Base · In-Line Re-Accel + Pass + Mid Auction

Core +0.3% as expected, Chair passes, 30-Y bid OK

The expected pain — market is already positioned for it. SPX grinds sideways inside the open range; sector rotation drives the alpha. NQ-led tape persists on AI capex narrative.

  • SPX futures hold inside 7,420–7,460 range; rotation dominant
  • 10Y oscillates 4.45–4.50%; 30-Y stays 5.00–5.05%
  • VIX stays inside 17–18.5 normal regime
  • Space cluster continues (LUNR/RKLB/PL) on cohort momentum
  • AI Infra (MU/GLW/CRWV/NVDA) holds gains into NVDA print
  • Cyber overbought cluster begins early pre-earnings derating
Bear · Triple-Stack — Hot PPI + Chair Hiccup + Soft Auction

Core PPI ≥0.4%, headline-noise Chair vote, 30-Y tails

The day's bearish tail. Yesterday's CPI gets re-priced as the start of a re-acceleration, not a one-off. 30-Y prints 5.10%+; VIX cracks 19/20; AI multiple-rerating bleeds the NQ leadership tape. >1% SPX reversal by 1:30 PM kind of move.

  • 10Y breaks 4.50% — hits long-multiple growth (NVDA, VRT, AVGO)
  • 30-Y prints 5.10%+ post-auction — duration capitulation
  • VIX cracks 20 — regime flips to elevated
  • Space cluster unwinds — RKLB / LUNR retest 50-day after multi-week rip
  • Cyber overbought (FTNT 81 / PANW 79 / CRWD 77) the obvious profit-taking pocket
  • BTC sub-$80K break = structurally negative for risk into Trump-Xi window
  • DXY through 99 = added EM / commodity headwind
The day's binary cluster is 8:30 PPI + 12:29 Chair vote + 13:01 auction. Cross-asset is positioned constructively but not euphoric — futures green NQ-led, VIX contained at 17.90, gold and crude both bid (inflation hedge intact), DXY firm. Yesterday's hot CPI is the priming context: an in-line Core PPI prints as "expected pain" not "relief," so the bull-case asymmetry sits on a cool print plus a clean auction. The asymmetry favors keeping powder dry until 8:31 ET — the path of least resistance into 8:30 is up, but the triple-stack between 12:29 and 1:01 PM is the trapdoor risk.
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News Highlights

SoftBank $46B · BABA −84% · Golden Dome $1.2T

Markets & Macro

  • Mortgage rates at 5-week high but homebuyers reportedly shrugging it off — incremental positive for housing-adjacent tape
  • "Silver lining for stocks and 5% Treasury yields" (MarketWatch) — framing rate regime as digestible if earnings deliver
  • AI power treated as a tradeable commodity — chip-price futures coming to market is a structural milestone for AI-infra cap-ex pricing
  • Putin addressing Zelensky as "mister" for the first time — Morgan Stanley flags vibe shift in peace negotiations

Earnings & Single-Name

  • CLSK −~9% on Q earnings miss tied to bitcoin holdings loss
  • BABA −3.05% — core profit plunged 84% even as AI/cloud growth accelerates
  • TCEHY revenue softer than expected despite gaming/AI demand
  • SFTBY up on $46B Vision Fund gain from OpenAI bet — largest public-market AI-trade validation
  • GME rejected by eBay on $56B bid — meme sequel falling flat

Fed & Policy

  • Senate confirmed Kevin Warsh to the Fed Board, clearing the path for today's Chair vote
  • Yesterday's hot CPI poured cold water on Fed cut hopes — some traders see inflation potentially nearing 5%
  • Tariff refunds beginning post-SCOTUS ruling — corporate cash-flow tailwind

Defense & Aerospace

  • CBO: Golden Dome missile shield could cost up to $1.2T over 20 years
  • Australia commits $45.2B defense budget — AUKUS spending ramp
  • US + close allies creating joint "orbital warfare" plan (SPACECOM)
  • Iran war price tag $29B, not including base damage
  • Trump-class battleship to get same nuclear reactor as Ford-class carriers — nuclear/defense crossover

Cybersecurity

  • RubyGems suspended new signups after hundreds of malicious packages
  • GemStuffer abuses 150+ RubyGems to exfiltrate UK council data
  • New Exim BDAT vulnerability exposes GnuTLS builds to RCE
  • US government seeking Instructure testimony on massive Canvas cyberattack

Crypto

  • Bitcoin holds below $81K with Trump-Xi talks on the horizon — XRP topping BTC/ETH volume on Korean exchanges
  • Charles Schwab begins US rollout of spot crypto trading for retail — meaningful incumbent-finance entry
  • JPMorgan files to launch a new tokenized fund — Wall Street tokenization race accelerates

Energy & Storage

  • WTI $102 / Brent $108 — oil holding above the $100 line
  • Energy Vault wins South Africa contract — storage capex narrative
  • SoftBank launches non-lithium BESS business — QS +7.24% read-through
  • DOT pursuing SMRs for commercial shipping — new application channel for nuclear

Nuclear

  • DOT seeking to develop SMRs for commercial shipping — new application channel
  • Reports examine the economics of keeping Diablo Canyon open
  • ADP on track to complete major D&D work at Crystal River-3 this summer

Space

  • SpaceX sets date for first Starship v3 launch
  • FCC approves SpaceX spectrum deal with $2.4B escrow condition
  • Varda to collaborate with United Therapeutics on microgravity drug research
  • Quantum Space to build spacecraft in Tulsa

Quantum & Frontier

  • NVision $55M Series B to advance quantum healthcare
  • Photonic Inc. closes $200M+ investment round
  • Casimir launches with $12M oversubscribed seed for quantum energy chip
  • IonQ opens new R&D facility in Boulder
  • D-Wave rides new wave of quantum bookings

Critical Minerals

  • Copper nears record on China demand and supply fears
  • Freeport expects full output at Grasberg by 2027
  • Middle East aluminium disruption drives market toward historic deficit
  • Brazil probes $2.8B rare earths deal
  • Elevra inks $437M financing for Quebec lithium
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Today’s Playbook

NEUTRAL-BULLISH with Tail Risk · Binary Day

VIX 17.90 — normal regime, SPY trend bullish, risk appetite moderate. The setup heading into the cash open is unusual: equity futures want to grind higher (NQ +0.65%) despite yesterday's hot CPI, while bonds remain wounded (30-Y stuck near 5.03%). The bull case is yields stabilizing rather than blowing out, mega-cap AI continues to absorb capital regardless of rate path, and global money (Nikkei, Kospi, DAX) is reinforcing the bid. The bear case is that PPI confirms re-acceleration, the 30-Y auction tails, and the Fed Chair vote produces any kind of headline noise — at which point a VIX in the high-17s has nowhere to go but up. Path of least resistance into 8:30 ET is up — but the 12:29–1:01 PM window is the trapdoor.

Bull Case Watch-Fors

  • Core PPI prints +0.1–0.2% m/m — the modest relief valve bulls need
  • Chair vote passes clean on cue, no theatrics
  • 30-Y auction comes through with normal indirect-bidder takedown
  • Defense oversold cluster (NOC 26, LDOS 22) gets the geopolitical-or-PPI squeeze
  • NVDA continues channel walk toward $230+ into 5/20 print
  • Space cohort (RKLB, LUNR, PL, SPIR) maintains the bid through the cash session

Bear Case Watch-Fors

  • Hot Core PPI ≥0.4% m/m — pushes 30-Y through 5.05%, equity multiples rerate
  • 30-Y prints 5.10%+ post-auction — long-duration capitulation
  • Chair vote produces unexpected headline noise — thin Wed tape amplifies
  • VIX cracks 20 — regime flips from normal to elevated
  • Cybersec overbought cluster (FTNT 81, PANW 79, CRWD 77) reverses 3%+
  • BTC breaks $80K — reverberates into RIOT/MARA/COIN; structural negative for risk

Key Levels to Watch

  • SPX: Cash 7,401, futures 7,441 (~+40 indicated). Watch 7,440 / 7,420 for opening-range pivots
  • Nasdaq: Cash 26,088, NQ 29,360 — NQ-led tape; relative strength likely persists unless PPI smashes
  • 10-Y 4.463% — through 4.50% on PPI = risk-off trigger
  • 30-Y 5.031% — above 5.10% post-auction = duration capitulation signal
  • DXY 98.34 — through 99 = added pressure on EM and gold
  • VIX 17.90 — through 20 = regime change

Risk Factors (Ranked)

  • PPI re-acceleration risk. Yesterday's CPI already chilled cut hopes; another hot inflation print pulls 2026 cut expectations lower and steepens the curve violently
  • 30-Y auction stack. 1:01 PM auction immediately after the Chair vote is a tape-vulnerability window
  • China trip / tariff cross-currents. Trump CEO delegation to China in focus (Jensen Huang notably excluded). Tariff refunds beginning post-SCOTUS adds wrinkle
  • Crypto downside seam. BTC oscillating $80–82K with Trump-Xi talks looming; a break below $80K reverberates into RIOT/MARA/COIN
  • Overbought clusters. Cyber Tier 1 (FTNT 81, PANW 79, CRWD 77) one negative print away from mean reversion
  • Anomaly-flagged tickers. CSCO, DELL, LUNR, QS, RKLB — verify cash-open prints before sizing (CSCO/DELL look stale)
  • Market Data
  • Schwab API — US equities, futures, ETFs, $TNX/$TYX, technicals, FX
  • Stooq — International indices (DXY, FTSE, Kospi)
  • CoinGecko — BTC, ETH cross-check
  • FRED — Treasury yields (timed out; 2Y carried at prior close)
  • Yahoo Finance — sector/commodity context
  • News & Analysis
  • RSS feeds — CNBC, Yahoo Finance, MarketWatch, CoinDesk, Tom’s Hardware, Breaking Defense, SpaceNews, ANS, The Hacker News, BleepingComputer, Seeking Alpha, Reuters, Barron’s, Quantum Insider, Mining Tech, Northern Miner, CleanTechnica, Defense.gov
  • Cleveland Fed economic calendar
  • BigPic automated pipeline + Opus market-intel feed
  • Data Quality
  • Completeness: 100% (66/66 data points)
  • FRED timeout on 2Y yield — carried at prior close; macro yields fall back to Schwab + prev-close FRED snapshot
  • Anomaly z-scores: CSCO ($99.07), DELL ($244), LUNR ($34.39), QS ($9.03), RKLB ($125)
  • LUNR / QS / RKLB anomalies corroborated by sector news flow (genuine breakouts)
  • CSCO / DELL prints look stale or split-adjusted — re-verify at the open
  • Schwab: $UVOL/$DVOL/$TRIN overflow occurs on ~11% of days — verify before sizing breadth trades (IB potential fallback)
  • Collected 11:38 PT, May 13 2026