Wednesday, June 17, 2026
HEAVY EVENT LOAD

Warsh’s Fed Debut Inside Triple-Witch Week · A Coiled, Defensive Tape Waiting on the 2:00 PM Dot Plot

Today is the marquee macro event of the month: the FOMC rate decision at 2:00 PM ET — Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, with a fresh Summary of Economic Projections and a 2:30 PM press conference. It lands inside triple-witching week (expiration Fri Jun 19, also S&P quarterly rebalance), with Russell reconstitution Jun 26 ahead. Layer on a busy morning data slate (Retail Sales 8:30), a scheduled Trump address at 9:30, and lingering Middle East headline risk, and you have a day where positioning matters more than direction. The pre-market lean is mildly green and tech-led — a classic coiled tape that can violently re-rate at 2:00.

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Pre-Market Snapshot

Quietly Constructive · Tech-Led · VIX 16.4 Pre-Fed
S&P 500 Futures
7,593
+0.08%
~80 pt premium vs 7,511 cash close
Nasdaq 100 Futures
30,466
+0.50%
Leading — tech/SpaceX rebound
Dow Futures
52,450
−0.04%
The laggard — essentially flat
Russell 2000 Futures
2,967
+0.08%
Flat — most to gain/lose on dots
VIX
16.39
−0.12%
Normal regime — no fireworks priced
10Y Yield
4.428%
+0.00%
Schwab $TNX÷10 — anchored
2Y Yield
3.800%
—
FRED prior close (read timed out)
30Y Yield
4.928%
+0.00%
Schwab $TYX÷10 — just under 5%
2s/10s Spread
+62.8 bps
—
Positively sloped (2Y prior close)
DXY
99.68
+0.14%
Firm but contained
WTI Crude
$75.83
+0.74%
Back near pre-war levels
Brent Crude
$79.43
+0.60%
Firming with WTI on de-escalation
Gold
$4,346
−0.19%
Soft after central-bank repat run
Bitcoin
$64,668
−2.54%
Cleanest pre-Fed risk barometer
Ethereum
$1,765
−1.54%
Giving back ground with BTC
Color: The tape is quietly constructive but defensive ahead of the Fed. The Nasdaq 100 (+0.50%) is doing the heavy lifting on a tech rebound led by the SpaceX debut narrative, while the Dow (−0.04%) sags. Small caps (+0.08%) are flat — unsurprising given they have the most to gain or lose from the dot plot. VIX at 16.39 sits comfortably in normal territory, signaling the options market is not pricing fireworks. The curve is positively sloped (2s/10s +62.8 bp) with the 10Y anchored at 4.428%. Crypto is the clear pre-Fed risk barometer — Bitcoin −2.54% and Ethereum −1.54% giving back ground, even as several altcoins (UNI) decouple to the upside. Oil firmed modestly (WTI +0.74%) but has effectively returned to pre-war levels on Middle East de-escalation. Gold is soft (−0.19%) after its central-bank-repatriation run.

Data-quality callout: the 2Y yield (3.800%) is a FRED prior-close stub after a read timeout, so the 2s/10s spread (~+62.8 bp) is approximate.
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Overnight & Global

Kospi +1.58% · Chip-Led Asia · Europe Muted-Green

Asia — Split, Semiconductor-Tilted

A split session with a strong semiconductor tilt. Kospi led (+1.58%) and the Nikkei rose +0.72%, both buoyed by the chip cycle — Japan reported May exports growing at the fastest pace in over three years, beating estimates on soaring chip demand. Hong Kong was the laggard (Hang Seng −0.74%), a familiar pattern of regional risk rotating away from China proper.

Kospi +1.58% Nikkei +0.72% Hang Seng −0.74%

Europe — Broadly Green but Muted

The DAX (+0.11%) and CAC (+0.29%) edged higher with the STOXX 50 proxy FEZ +0.27%, while the FTSE 100 was a touch soft (−0.06%). UK inflation held steady at 2.8% in May, keeping the Bank of England narrative quiet. The tone abroad mirrors the US.

DAX +0.11% CAC +0.29% FTSE −0.06%

Takeaway — No One Wants to Be Offside

The global tape mirrors the US: a willingness to nudge higher, but no one wants to be offside before Warsh speaks. The chip-export strength out of Japan/Korea is the cleanest cross-asset theme, consistent with the semis bid (ASML, MU) in the US pre-market. Australia (EWA +0.41%) firm, broad Europe (IEV) flat.

Chip-cycle bid EWA +0.41%
Market Level Change Source
Nikkei 22569,902+0.72%schwab
Hang Seng24,312−0.74%schwab
DAX24,939+0.11%schwab
CAC 408,471+0.29%schwab
FTSE 10010,488−0.06%yahoo
Kospi8,864+1.58%yahoo
Europe STOXX 50 (FEZ)70.04+0.27%schwab
Europe Broad (IEV)72.68+0.00%schwab
Australia (EWA)29.10+0.41%schwab
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Today’s Calendar

The Whole Day Pivots on 2:00 PM FOMC
Time (ET) Release Consensus Prior Significance
8:30 Core Retail Sales m/m 0.6% 0.7% Medium
8:30 Retail Sales m/m 0.5% 0.5% Medium
9:30 President Trump Speaks — — Medium
10:00 Business Inventories m/m 0.5% 0.9% Low
10:00 Pending Home Sales m/m 0.8% 1.4% Low
10:30 Crude Oil Inventories −3.6M −7.2M Low
14:00 Federal Funds Rate 3.75% 3.75% High
14:00 FOMC Economic Projections (SEP / dot plot) — — High
14:00 FOMC Statement — — High
14:30 FOMC Press Conference — — High
Every release still shows Actual = “—” — nothing has printed; all items are pending/scheduled, none reported as actuals. Consensus is a hold at 3.75% (top of the 3.50–3.75% range), so the rate level itself is unlikely to be the story. The story is twofold: (1) the SEP / dot plot — though the feed flags speculation that Warsh may withhold the dot plot entirely, which would itself be a market-moving structural change; and (2) Warsh’s tone in his debut, with chatter that he may distance himself from President Trump. Markets entered the year pricing roughly three cuts (75 bps) by year-end; any signal that recalibrates that path is the key risk. Retail Sales at 8:30 (core +0.6%, headline +0.5%) is the morning’s swing factor; Trump speaks at 9:30, an additional headline wildcard given his fresh Iran comments.
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Pre-Market Movers

LZB +16% · OLN +10% · Semis Cluster · AZTA −10%

Auto-detected movers (|change| > 3%) skew to the upside, with a clean semiconductor theme. Five watchlist names cleared the threshold — OLN, ASML, OUST, MU higher and AZTA sharply lower. Watchlist names are flagged with ★.

Gainers

Symbol Price Change Sector Tier
LZB40.69+16.06%Consumer (earnings)—
OLN ★26.27+10.35%Defense & AerospaceT3
ASTS86.71+5.42%Space-adjacent—
ASML ★1,875+3.93%AI InfrastructureT3
OUST ★44.37+3.84%RoboticsT3
MU ★1,057+3.55%AI InfrastructureT2
ABCL5.25+3.14%——
INTC121+3.08%Semiconductors—

Decliners

Symbol Price Change Sector Tier
AZTA ★20.75−10.29%RoboticsT2

News-Driven Context

  • ▪ LZB +16% — La-Z-Boy jumped after weathering earnings headwinds.
  • ▪ INTC +3.08% — Intel began production of its most-advanced chip (18A), inching toward a possible Apple deal; corroborated by the semis feed (18A-P entered risk production, +9% perf at iso-power).
  • ▪ SPCX +3% — SpaceX rose after surpassing Amazon in market cap following a hot public debut.
  • ▪ POWL — upgraded; analyst sees more room to run.
  • ▪ MSTR (down) — Strategy’s dividend-paying crypto stock crashing toward near-historic lows (crypto-weakness read-through).
  • ▪ RIVN (down) — laying off hundreds amid the R2 launch and a push for financial sustainability.
  • ▪ PSIX (down) — rating downgrade as earnings pressure proves real.
The semis cluster (ASML, MU, plus off-list INTC) is the cleanest theme of the morning, consistent with the Asia chip-export strength. The lone >3% decliner is the watchlist name AZTA −10.29% (Robotics Tier 2) — no specific catalyst in the feed and flagged in the anomaly region. LZB +16% (off-watchlist earnings) and ASTS +5.42% (space-adjacent, SpaceX-debut halo) round out the upside.
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Thesis Watchlist

No Earnings · LDOS RSI 23 · AZTA −10% · FTNT RSI 68

Earnings Reporting Today

None. No watchlist names report today. The next watchlist earnings is TSM on 2026-07-16 (before open), kicking off the Q2 reporting cycle, followed by VRT 7/29 and the defense primes LMT / RTX / NOC 7/21.

Notable Tier 1 Moves & RSI Extremes

Tier 1 was orderly overnight — no Tier 1 name moved more than 3%. The standouts are at the RSI extremes.

Name RSI / Move Read
LDOS Cyber RSI 23 · px 113 Cleanest oversold reading on the board. Flagged as a statistical anomaly (z −3.5); far below every MA (SMA20 124, SMA50 136, SMA200 172) — a broken chart, not a dip. Watch for capitulation or mean-reversion, but the trend is decisively down. Tier 1 conviction on its $46.2B backlog; disconnect worth monitoring into 7/28 earnings.
SYM/PL/LUNR/MP/AVGO RSI 33 / 34 / 38 / 44 / 41 A cluster of oversold / washed-out growth names. PL (Space) and LUNR (Space) both trade well below their 20/50-day averages despite strong sector theses.
FTNT Cyber RSI 68 · px 147 The hottest watchlist reading — approaching but not at overbought; trades above all its SMAs (SMA200 89.23 vs price 147), a genuine uptrend.

Tier 2 / 3 Moves Worth Noting

Name Move Read
AZTA T2−10.29%The day’s largest watchlist decliner, now 20.75, below its SMA200 of 28.73. No specific catalyst; flagged as an anomaly (z −3.5 region). Monitor for news.
OUST T3+3.84%Western LiDAR leader pushing higher; trades well above SMA200 (26.68 vs 44.37).
ASML / MU T3/T2+3.93% / +3.55%The irreplaceable-monopoly leg of the AI thesis (EUV + HBM) riding the chip-demand tape.
PEG / ETN T3/T2−2.96% / −2.12%Nuclear (PEG) and AI Infra (ETN) the notable Tier 2/3 laggards.
AMD/MRVL/USAR/CHKP/ESTC+2.5% to +2.9%Smaller green: AMD +2.48%, MRVL +2.59%, USAR +2.90%, CHKP +2.56%, ESTC +2.65%.

Key Technical Levels (SMA200, select watchlist)

NVDA 190 · AVGO 359 · TSM 333 · MU 391 · ASML 1,256 · CRWD 487 · PANW 195 · FTNT 89.23 · LDOS 172 · CEG 320 · VST 171 · CCJ 103 · MP 62.26 · RKLB 73.20 · LUNR 18.11 · ISRG 491 · TSLA 416.
Broad index proxies: SPY 687 · QQQ 627 · IWM 257 · DIA 481.

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Approaching Catalysts

FOMC Today · Triple Witch · Russell · SpaceX Debut Live
TODAY · 2:00 PM ET
🔴 FOMC Rate Decision + SEP / Dot Plot — Warsh’s Debut (all sectors)
Hold at 3.75% expected; the story is the dot plot (possibly withheld) and Warsh’s tone. Rate-sensitive, long-duration thesis names (quantum, space, SMR / nuclear developers, high-multiple AI software) carry the most beta to the outcome. 2:30 PM press conference follows.
Fri, Jun 19
Triple Witch + S&P Quarterly Rebalance
Elevated volume and pin risk across the watchlist; expect mechanical, non-fundamental flows. The playbook flags avoiding witching Friday (14% win rate) and the witching hour 3–4 PM (31% win rate).
Fri, Jun 26
Russell Reconstitution — ~$100B in Flows
Small/mid-cap watchlist names (USAR, SMR, DNN, RDW, MNTS, BBAI, etc.) most exposed to the rebalancing flows.
Now · sector-defining
Space — SpaceX Public Debut (now live)
The SpaceX IPO was the “sector-defining event” expected mid-2026 — it has arrived, and SpaceX has surpassed Amazon in market cap. Watch for it to reprice the entire satellite/launch complex (RKLB, PL, LUNR, RDW, ASTS). Artemis II already launched (March); RKLB Neutron first flight remains a late-2026 catalyst.
Q1 2026 → H2 2026
AI Infrastructure — Product & IPO Pipeline
AMD MI400 (Q1 2026), Cerebras IPO (Q2 2026), NVIDIA Rubin architecture (mid-2026), Databricks IPO (H2 2026).
Apr 2026 → H2 2026
Robotics & Nuclear — Milestone Watch
Robotics: Tesla Cybercab production (Apr 2026), J&J OTTAVA FDA decision (H2 2026), Aurora safety-driver removal (Q2 2026). Nuclear: Palisades restart (target early 2026), first Vistra-Meta PPA deliveries (late 2026).
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Sector Snapshot

Semis Lead · OLN the Standout · SpaceX Repricing Space
AI Infrastructure
Leadership group. ASML +3.93%, MU +3.55%, MRVL +2.59%, AMD +2.48% on the Asia chip-export surge; AVGO +1.65%, TSM +1.21% firm. ETN −2.12% the laggard. Net positive.
Semiconductors / Memory
Strongest cross-asset theme. Japan/Korea exports, Intel 18A risk production, AI data centers draining NAND/DRAM into 2027.
Cybersecurity
Mixed-to-firm. FTNT (RSI 68) the momentum leader; PANW/CRWD flat; LDOS deeply oversold (RSI 23). CMMC / active-exploit headlines (Joomla, Mastra npm) keep demand alive.
Nuclear Energy
Quietly green. CCJ +1.59%, VST +0.86%, SMR +2.02%, UUUU +1.56%; PEG −2.96% the outlier. China nuclear-capacity and Palisades-review headlines supportive.
Defense & Aerospace
OLN +10.35% the standout (chemicals/munitions read-through, Lockheed-GM munitions partnership); HII +1.84%, RTX +0.63% firm; primes broadly flat into July earnings.
Space
Risk-on, headline-driven. SpaceX’s public debut dominates; ASTS +5.42%, RKLB +0.76%, LUNR +1.24%; PL washed out (RSI 34). Sector-repricing catalyst is live.
Robotics & Automation
Most dispersed — OUST +3.84% up, AZTA −10.29% down. Genesis AI humanoid + physical-AI funding headlines bullish for the theme, idiosyncratic on names.
Critical Minerals
Firm. MP +1.89%, USAR +2.90%, FCX +0.16%; Canada–Italy minerals deal and rare-earth developments in feed. Gold soft (−0.19%) but central banks repatriating.
Quantum Computing
Quiet / rate-sensitive. IONQ +1.28%, RGTI +1.31%, QBTS +1.59%; capital ramp continues (Atom Computing $300M+, IQM at Oak Ridge).
Energy Storage
Modestly green. FLNC +0.33%, ENPH +0.68%, BE +1.82%, SEDG +1.03%; TSLA −0.31%. Global BESS deployments +24% in 2026 offset EV-policy headwinds (UK mandate rollback, Rivian layoffs).
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Scenario Analysis

The 2:00 PM Dot Plot & Warsh’s First Press Conference
Dovish — Bull / Relief Rally

Dots intact (≥3 cuts) or dovish Warsh tone

A dot plot that keeps the ~3-cut path (or signals more), paired with a reassuring presser, validates the “cuts still coming” baseline. Long-duration, rate-sensitive thesis names lead the snap-back and the crypto risk gauge rebounds.

  • Quantum, space, SMR/nuclear, high-multiple AI software lead
  • Bitcoin reclaims ground; small caps catch a bid
  • VIX fades back toward the low-16s
In-Line — Base Case

Hold 3.75%, dots unchanged or withheld, balanced tone

Most likely: a hold with a measured presser. If Warsh withholds the dot plot, the structural surprise itself drives a brief re-rate even without a directional shift. The coiled morning resolves into a choppy, headline-sensitive range.

  • “Sell-the-news” modest reaction either way
  • Semis (ASML, MU) and SpaceX-halo space names stay the theme
  • VIX stabilizes around the 16 handle
Hawkish — Bearish Repricing

Fewer cuts signaled or hawkish Warsh / Trump distancing

Any walk-back of the ~3-cut path — or a Warsh debut that reads as hawkish/independent — hits long-duration equities and small caps hardest. Yields rise, the speculative complex (crypto, high-multiple AI) cracks.

  • 10Y lifts off 4.428%; quantum/SMR/software sell off
  • Russell 2000 underperforms; Bitcoin breaks lower
  • VIX spikes through ~20 — the “dots disappointed” tell
There is no edge in pressing directional bets ahead of a first-meeting Fed chair who may break with convention (withholding the dot plot). The honest read is a quiet morning that can violently re-rate at 2:00. VIX 16.39 means a surprise is under-priced and hedges are cheap; Bitcoin $64,668 is the cleanest real-time gauge of the crypto-sensitive read on Fed liquidity, and a hold-vs-break there will telegraph the reaction. The triple-witch seasonality (T-3→T-1, avg +0.47%) is supportive today, but the calendar turns bearish into next week (Jun 22–26).
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News Highlights

SpaceX Debut · Intel 18A · Warsh’s Fed · Iran Threat

Markets & Macro

  • ▪ SpaceX’s hot debut sheds light on the broader tech tape; Dow futures rebound as techs lead despite Trump’s Iran threat — Warsh’s Fed debut due. (Yahoo Finance)
  • ▪ Trump says U.S. will “go right back to dropping bombs” if he doesn’t like the Iran deal. (CNBC)
  • ▪ Bezos says the only thing holding back orbital data centers is cost, not science — and that AI will create jobs. (MarketWatch)
  • ▪ Oil, Fed and Middle East views lift Wall Street pre-bell; Asia and Europe up. (Yahoo Finance)

Crypto

  • ▪ Three Fed signals that could make Bitcoin pop. (CoinDesk)
  • ▪ Uniswap jumps 22% and altcoins rip while Bitcoin stalls before the Fed; UNI surges as the market awaits Warsh. (CoinDesk)
  • ▪ BitGo offers Europe’s crypto firms a MiCA-compliance lifeline as the license deadline looms. (CoinDesk)
  • ▪ Strategy’s (MSTR) dividend-paying crypto stock crashing to near-historic lows. (CoinDesk)

AI / Semiconductors

  • ▪ Intel’s 18A-P process enters risk production — drop-in upgrade promises +9% performance at iso-power, −40% thermal resistance. (Tom’s Hardware)
  • ▪ Google details five generations of TPU training supercomputers. (Semiconductor Engineering)
  • ▪ Chinese memory brands ditch Samsung/Micron for homegrown CXMT and YMTC silicon — Corsair, HP, Dell already adopting China-made DDR5. (Tom’s Hardware)

Defense & Aerospace

  • ▪ Lockheed and GM announce partnership to bolster munitions production and more. (Breaking Defense)
  • ▪ Pentagon aims to sidestep potential “collusion” via the Defense Production Act. (Breaking Defense)
  • ▪ Mach Industries wins DIU contract for a maritime, long-range strike drone. (Breaking Defense)

Space

  • ▪ Dawn Aerospace raises $25M. (SpaceNews)
  • ▪ Astrobotic unveils Griffin-1 lunar lander. (SpaceNews)
  • ▪ Look Up and Skynopy partner on automated satellite collision-avoidance service. (SpaceNews)

Nuclear

  • ▪ NRC launches environmental review of Holtec’s new-build plans for Palisades. (ANS Nuclear Newswire)
  • ▪ Analysis: China’s nuclear power capacity nearly doubled in 10 years. (ANS Nuclear Newswire)

Cybersecurity

  • ▪ CISA warns of an actively exploited Joomla JCE flaw allowing PHP code execution; orders feds to patch by Friday. (The Hacker News / BleepingComputer)
  • ▪ 144 Mastra npm packages compromised via a hijacked contributor account. (The Hacker News)
  • ▪ Microsoft working on a Defender patch for the RoguePlanet zero-day. (BleepingComputer)

Robotics / Quantum / Storage

  • ▪ Genesis AI launches its first general-purpose humanoid robot. (Robotics & Automation News)
  • ▪ Atom Computing raises $300M+ to accelerate fault-tolerant neutral-atom quantum computers; IQM deploys its first U.S. system at Oak Ridge. (The Quantum Insider)
  • ▪ 14.6 GWh of BESS deployed globally in May; activity up 24% in 2026 YTD. (Energy Storage News)
📝

Today’s Playbook

Bias · Watch-Fors · Risks
Bias: Neutral-to-cautiously-constructive into 2:00 PM, then event-driven. The pipeline reads the regime as normal (VIX 16.39), with SPY trend neutral and risk appetite moderate. Volatility is subdued for an FOMC day, which cuts both ways — hedges are cheap, and a surprise is under-priced. The overall feed sentiment is “cautiously risk-on” (equities/tech rally on Iran de-escalation and falling oil, tempered by AI-valuation jitters), but this is a classic “coiled before the catalyst” tape. There is no edge in pressing directional bets ahead of a first-meeting Fed chair who may break with convention. Expect a quiet morning that can violently re-rate at 2:00.

What to Watch For (Bull Case)

  • A dovish dot plot (~3 cuts intact) + reassuring Warsh presser revives the “cuts still coming” trade
  • Semis leadership (ASML +3.93%, MU +3.55%) extending on the Asia chip-export surge
  • SpaceX-debut halo repricing the satellite/launch complex higher (ASTS +5.42%)
  • A VIX hold below ~16 post-Fed would confirm the “no surprise” outcome; structural triple-witch seasonality (T-3→T-1, +0.47%) is at our back today

What to Watch For (Bear Case)

  • A hawkish recalibration (fewer cuts) → long-duration equities and small caps hit hardest
  • Warsh withholding the dot plot or publicly distancing from Trump — communication risk is the dominant tail
  • Bitcoin breaking lower ($64,668 −2.54%) telegraphing a crypto-sensitive read on tighter Fed liquidity; MSTR collapsing
  • A VIX spike through ~20 post-Fed signals the dot plot disappointed; Trump’s 9:30 Iran comments reverse the oil/de-escalation trade

Key Levels

  • S&P futures 7,593 — prior cash close 7,511, a ~80-pt premium; the Fed reaction defines the range
  • Nasdaq 100 futures 30,466 — tech leadership intact above; the relative-strength leader
  • 10Y 4.428% — the line in the sand for rate-sensitive sectors; a hawkish hold that lifts yields pressures quantum/SMR/high-multiple software
  • VIX 16.39 / Bitcoin $64,668 — a sub-16 VIX confirms “no surprise,” a spike >20 says the dots disappointed; BTC is the cleanest real-time risk gauge

Ranked Risk Factors

  • Warsh wildcard — first meeting, possible dot-plot omission, possible public distancing from Trump; communication risk is the dominant tail today
  • Hawkish recalibration — markets price ~3 cuts; any walk-back hits long-duration equities and small caps hardest
  • Geopolitics — Trump’s “go right back to dropping bombs” Iran comment plus his 9:30 address keep headline risk live; the oil/de-escalation trade could reverse
  • Triple-witch mechanics — Friday’s expiration + S&P rebalance can produce outsized, non-fundamental moves; size risk accordingly
  • Crypto / AI-valuation jitters — BTC −2.54% and MSTR collapsing are reminders the speculative complex is fragile pre-Fed
  • Collection: 11:39:52 PT via the BigPic automated pipeline.
  • Sources: Schwab API (futures, indices, yields, commodities, technicals), CoinGecko (crypto), Stooq, FRED (2Y yield, prev-close), and RSS feeds. Sector/catalyst context cross-referenced against BigPic thesis files (AI, Space, Nuclear, Critical Minerals, Cybersecurity, Energy Storage, Quantum, Robotics) and the Market Structure Calendar.
  • Completeness: 100% (66/66 data points).
  • Caveat — FRED timeout: the FRED read timed out, so the 2Y yield (3.800%) is a prior-close value with no daily change — treat the 2s/10s spread (~+62.8 bp) as approximate.
  • Caveat — intermittent errors: intermittent Schwab 400 and Stooq 404 errors occurred during collection.
  • Caveat — price anomalies: statistical-anomaly flags were raised on GD (z +3.1), LDOS (z −3.5), and NFLX (z −3.9) — treat those individual prints with extra caution.
  • Caveat — economic-calendar / FOMC actuals: all economic-calendar and FOMC items showed Actual = “—” at collection time and are reported as Pending/Scheduled, not as results — no actual values were fabricated. Verify on a live feed before trading.
  • Disclaimer: Educational research, not investment advice. All actionable items require independent confirmation.