$650B in hyperscaler capex. A 4% monetization rate. Three investable layers across chips, power, cloud, and software — from structural winners to the IPO wave ahead.
The Big 5 hyperscalers will spend ~$650B in 2026, up from $241B in 2024. Three-quarters flows directly into AI infrastructure across four layers.
Core Thesis
We are in a multi-year AI infrastructure supercycle with three investable layers — picks-and-shovels infrastructure (highest visibility), platform/cloud (high growth, leverage risk), and application software (longest duration, monetization proving out). Power availability is the #1 constraint.
NVIDIA holds 86-97% discrete GPU share with $187B TTM revenue. But custom silicon is growing from 37% to 45% of AI chips by 2028.
US data center power demand grows from 40 GW to 134 GW by 2030. Grid spending needs ~$720B. Transformer lead times stretch 2-4 years.
Inference spending exceeds training for the first time at 55% of AI compute. Token prices have fallen 200x since January 2024.
Foundation models are concentrating into 3-4 winners. Enterprise AI is growing 20-60% YoY. But the 4% problem looms large.
4%
The Monetization Problem
Only ~$25B in direct AI service revenue vs $600B+ infrastructure spend. 42% of companies abandoned AI initiatives in 2025. The market is shifting from promise phase to proof phase.
From structural winners to speculative bets. Filter by conviction tier to explore the full stack.
The largest AI IPO cycle in history is building. Private valuations at 25-30x revenue vs public SaaS at 6x — the gap must resolve.
| Company | Valuation | Timeline | ARR / Revenue | Key Signal |
|---|
Key dates that could move the sector, from chip launches to IPO filings and energy milestones.
Ten risks that could derail the thesis, from capex deceleration to the token price death spiral.
Build core infrastructure positions now. Evaluate the IPO wave at pricing. Watch for the 4% monetization ratio to improve — it is the single most important signal for the thesis.
Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. See sources below.