China controls 90% of rare earth processing. The West is spending $25B+ to break free. A generational supply chain reshoring across rare earths, lithium, copper, and cobalt.
A $350B+ market across rare earths, lithium, copper, and cobalt — with demand set to double by 2030, driven by EVs, defense, and the energy transition.
| Mineral | 2025 Demand | 2030 Projection | CAGR | Supply Risk |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rare Earth Oxides | ~200K MT | ~400K MT | 8-13% | High |
| NdPr (Magnets) | ~55K MT | ~90K+ MT | 10-12% | High |
| Dysprosium | ~2.5K MT | ~4K+ MT | 10%+ | Critical |
| Lithium (LCE) | ~1.0M MT | ~2.0M+ MT | ~18% | High |
| Copper | 28M MT | ~33M MT | ~7% | Critical |
| Gallium | ~700 MT | ~1K+ MT | ~8% | Critical |
Mining is the most geographically diversified stage. MP Materials, Lynas, Freeport, and Albemarle lead the Western charge.
Processing is where geopolitical leverage concentrates. China built its dominance over three decades. The West needs $15-25B and a decade to close the gap.
The Western Processing Gap
Every F-35 requires 920 lbs of rare earths. Every Virginia-class sub needs 9,200 lbs. The military cannot substitute — it must secure supply.
Beijing has systematically weaponized mineral dominance since July 2023. The November 2026 trade deal expiry is the single most important near-term catalyst.
| Date | Action | Impact | Severity |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2023 | Gallium/Germanium controls | Exports → zero; +150% price | Critical |
| Aug 2024 | Antimony controls | +200% price; shipments -97% | Critical |
| Apr 2025 | 7 heavy REEs + magnets | Auto production cuts | High |
| Oct 2025 | Extraterritorial controls | Most extensive to date | High |
| Nov 2025 | Temporary suspension | Until Nov 2026; architecture intact | Pause |
From vertically-integrated mine-to-magnet leaders to early-stage development plays. Filter by conviction tier to explore.
From near-term production milestones to the pivotal November 2026 trade agreement expiry and long-term secular trends.
Ten risks spanning commodity volatility, execution delays, geopolitical uncertainty, and valuation compression.
Focus on vertically-integrated Western producers with government backing. The November 2026 U.S.-China trade deal expiry is the single most important catalyst. Position for structural supply chain reshoring across rare earths, lithium, and copper.
Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. See sources below.