A structural growth cycle driven by collapsing launch costs, surging defense spending, and commercial revenue inflection. From overview to actionable watchlist.
The global space economy grew 7.8% in 2024, driven by commercial services (78% of total). By 2035, Morgan Stanley projects it nearly triples.
Core Thesis
We are in the early innings of a multi-decade space infrastructure buildout, analogous to the internet infrastructure boom of the late 1990s — but with stronger government demand underpinning. The SpaceX IPO will be the defining sector catalyst.
Launch costs have fallen 95% since the Shuttle era. Starship aims for another 99% reduction — potentially opening entirely new categories of space activity.
US Space Force budget doubled in five years. Golden Dome adds a step-function increase — the largest space defense program since Reagan-era SDI.
Estimates span 20x — a key risk factor for the largest space defense procurement in US history.
Annual space segment revenue for major contractors.
From high-conviction core positions to speculative monitors. Filter by conviction tier to explore.
The 2021 space SPAC class averaged -65% from highs. But survivors with real revenue have staged remarkable recoveries.
| Ticker | Company | SPAC Year | ATH | Current | From ATH |
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Key dates that could move the sector, from Artemis II to the SpaceX IPO and beyond.
No thesis is complete without stress-testing the bear case.
The highest-conviction names span proven defense demand, commercial inflection, and sector-wide exposure. Build positions now, evaluate the SpaceX IPO at pricing.
Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. All data from company filings, SpaceNews, Payload Space, SIA, Goldman Sachs Research, and industry reports.