INVESTMENT THESIS 2026

The Nuclear Energy Renaissance

10+ GW of hyperscaler commitments. A 30M lb uranium deficit. Three investable layers across fleet operators, fuel cycle, and next-gen technology.

0Hyperscaler Nuclear

0Uranium Spot Price

0Fleet Capacity Factor

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Overview

The Nuclear Renaissance

AI-driven power demand meets a supply-constrained nuclear fleet. Hyperscalers have contracted $50B+ in long-term PPAs, repricing existing plants as irreplaceable infrastructure.

Hyperscaler Nuclear Commitments (MW)

Uranium Supply-Demand Gap

Core Thesis

A multi-decade investment cycle spanning three layers — existing fleet operators (highest near-term visibility), fuel cycle companies (structural supply deficit), and next-gen technology (highest growth optionality). Nuclear is the only scalable 24/7 carbon-free solution for AI power.

Fleet Operators

The Nuclear Titans

Four publicly traded fleet operators control the US nuclear fleet. Their plants — operating at ~$30/MWh — are now selling 20-year contracts at $80-120/MWh to Big Tech.

Nuclear Fleet Comparison (GW)

Nuclear Economics ($/MWh)

Major Hyperscaler Nuclear PPAs

Buyer	Partner	Plant / Tech	Capacity	Term	Status
Microsoft	Constellation	TMI Unit 1 (restart)	835 MW	20 yr	Target 2027-28
Meta	Constellation	Clinton (IL)	1,121 MW	20 yr	June 2027
Meta	Vistra	Perry/Davis-Besse/BV + uprates	2,609 MW	20 yr	Late 2026
Amazon	Talen	Susquehanna (PA)	1,920 MW	17 yr	Ramp 2026-32
Meta	Oklo	New build (OH)	1,200 MW	—	~2030
Google	Kairos Power	SMR fleet	500 MW	—	Through 2035
Amazon	X-energy	Xe-100 deployments	5+ GW	—	By 2039

Fuel Cycle

Uranium & the Supply Deficit

Primary mine supply covers ~75% of demand. Secondary sources are depleted. Every stage — conversion, enrichment, HALEU — faces capacity constraints. Spot uranium breached $100/lb in January 2026.

Enrichment Market Share

Fuel Cycle Bottlenecks

Key Uranium Producers

Company	Ticker	Role	Production / Status	Key Catalyst
Kazatomprom	KAP	Largest miner (40% global)	27.5-29K tU (2026)	Production discipline
Cameco	CCJ	#2 Western miner	20M lbs (guidance)	Rising contract prices
NexGen Energy	NXE	Largest dev-stage project	30M lbs/yr capacity	CNSC hearing Feb 2026
Denison Mines	DNN	Wheeler River ISR	Construction-ready Q1 2026	First Athabasca ISR
Uranium Energy	UEC	Largest US-focused	ISR ramp-up across 3 hubs	Burke Hollow ramp
Energy Fuels	UUUU	Only US conv. mill + REE	>1M lbs (2025)	Rare earth pivot
Centrus Energy	LEU	Only Western HALEU	900 kg/yr (pilot)	$900M DOE expansion

Advanced Nuclear

SMRs & Next-Gen Technology

$6B+ in DOE funding. 10+ GW of hyperscaler commitments. First commercial units expected 2029-2032. But FOAK cost premiums and HALEU supply gaps remain key risks.

SMR Developer Status

LCOE Comparison ($/MWh)

$9.3B

UAMPS Final Cost Est. (cancelled)

NuScale's first project jumped from $5.3B → $9.3B (+75%) before cancellation. FOAK cost premiums are severe. LCOE rose from $58 to $89/MWh. Cost per kW hit ~$20,139 — comparable to Vogtle.

$6B+

DOE Advanced Nuclear Funding

ARDP demonstration awards, loan guarantees, and HALEU availability programs. ADVANCE Act cut NRC fees 50%+, set 18-month licensing deadlines, and opened foreign investment.

Global

Worldwide Nuclear Expansion

63-68 reactors under construction globally. China building half. COP28 pledge to triple capacity by 2050. US racing to match with NRC reform and SMR exports.

🇨🇳

China — Dominant Scale

~62 GWe operating, ~43 GWe under construction. 10 new reactors approved April 2025 (~$27.5B). Target: 200 GW by 2035, 400-500 GW by 2050.

🇬🇧

UK — Sizewell C

GBP 38B (~$51B) FID signed July 2025. Two EPR units. Largest single UK energy infrastructure commitment in decades.

🇫🇷

France — EPR2 Revival

EUR 50B program for 6 EPR2 reactors plus SMR pipeline. Rebuilding nuclear industrial base and workforce skills.

🇰🇷

South Korea — Export Champion

Barakah (UAE) delivered on time and on budget — rare in nuclear. APR-1400 positioned as default Western-aligned option.

🇮🇳

India — 100 GW by 2047

From 8.2 GW to 22.5 GW by 2032. SMR LOI with France. 5+ domestic SMRs by 2033. Private sector participation enabled.

🇷🇺

Russia — Fuel Monopoly

Rosatom: 46% enrichment, only commercial HALEU source. 6 reactors in Uzbekistan. Western decoupling underway but 5-7 years to close gap.

Private & Pre-IPO

Ones to Watch

Company	Technology	Total Funding	Est. Valuation	Key Backers	IPO Outlook
X-energy	Xe-100 HTGR	$1.8B	$3-5B	Jane Street, ARK, Amazon	Strong candidate 2026-27
Kairos Power	Molten salt-cooled	$500M+	$2-4B	Google, DOE ARDP	Possible 2027+
TerraPower	Natrium sodium fast	$1B+	$4-6B	Bill Gates, DOE	Possible 2027+
Commonwealth Fusion	Tokamak fusion	~$3B	$5-6B	Nvidia, Google, Tiger	Venture-stage, 2028+
Helion Energy	FRC fusion	$600M+	$3-5B	Sam Altman, Microsoft	Venture-stage

Recommended Watchlist

Build positions in fleet operators and fuel cycle. Watch SMR developers for de-risking catalysts. Size fusion as call options.

Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. See sources below.