Battery costs breaking $100/kWh. Grid storage growing 50-60% annually. 20M EVs sold globally. From lithium mines to virtual power plants — the electrification supercycle is here.
From mine to wheel to grid. Three structural forces converge: lithium price recovery, battery cost breakthroughs, and explosive grid storage deployment.
Core Thesis
The energy storage value chain is at an inflection point: lithium prices have bottomed, battery costs are breaking $100/kWh, and grid storage is creating an entirely new demand pillar. The investment opportunity lies in companies that can navigate the tension between Western onshoring and Chinese dominance.
From $80K to below $10K and back above $20K. Survivors emerge stronger as supply-demand tightens toward deficit in 2026.
CATL and BYD control 55.6% of global EV battery share. LFP chemistry has overtaken NMC. The IRA is the lifeline for Western manufacturers.
The fastest-growing demand driver for batteries. US added 10.4 GW in 2024 and is targeting ~19.6 GW in 2025. IRA standalone storage ITC transformed project economics.
50%
IRA Storage ITC (Maximum)
A 100 MW/400 MWh BESS that was marginally economic pre-IRA now achieves 5-7 year payback at the maximum credit level. This single policy change is the primary driver of the 2024-2025 deployment surge.
Global EV penetration crossed 20% in 2024 with 17M units sold. BYD leads with 4.6M NEVs. The S-curve of mass adoption has begun.
From lithium miners to grid storage pure-plays. Filter by conviction tier across the full energy storage value chain.
Key dates from lithium price triggers to solid-state validation and grid storage milestones.
Ten risks across the value chain, from Chinese dominance to policy reversal and technology disruption.
Position in cost-advantaged lithium producers and grid storage leaders now. Watch for the $100/kWh battery cost barrier to break — it unlocks unsubsidized EV-ICE price parity and accelerates the entire value chain.
Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. See sources below.