$300B+ total addressable market by 2030. Four converging sectors — industrial automation, humanoid robots, surgical robotics, and autonomous vehicles — all accelerated by AI.
AI is the accelerant transforming four robotics sectors simultaneously. Manufacturing costs are plummeting, labor shortages are chronic, and what was speculative five years ago is now generating revenue.
| Sector | 2025 Size | 2030 Projection | CAGR | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industrial Automation | $48B | $90B+ | 13-14% | China installations, AI integration |
| Warehouse Automation | $25.2B | ~$45B | 15.1% | E-commerce, AMR adoption, RaaS |
| Surgical Robotics | $13.7B | $27.1B | 14.7% | Aging demographics, MIS shift |
| Cobots | $2-3.7B | $3.4-12B | 19-36% | SME adoption, <$25K entry price |
| Robotaxi | ~$2B | $45.7-147B | 92-99% | Fleet scaling, regulatory clarity |
| AI-Driven Robotics | $5.5B | $49.1B | 24.4% | Vision AI, adaptive systems |
| RaaS | $2.4B | $12.4B+ | 18% | SME access, subscription model |
| ADAS | ~$30B | $107.8B | ~15% | L2+ ubiquity, L3 certification |
Core Thesis
The convergence of AI capability, declining hardware costs, and chronic labor shortages is compressing the adoption timeline across industrial, medical, and mobility applications. Own the dominant platforms at reasonable entry points while maintaining watchlist positions in high-conviction pure-plays during pullbacks.
The most mature robotics sector. $48B market growing to $90B+ by 2030. The 2024-2025 downturn is ending as Fanuc and Rockwell post double-digit growth.
Most speculative but highest-upside sector. $3.1B VC in H1 2025 alone exceeded $2.9B from the entire 2010-2024 period. Goldman Sachs projects $38B-$154B TAM by 2035.
$3.1B
VC Funding in H1 2025 alone
Exceeds the $2.9B invested across the entire 2010-2024 period. Humanoid costs dropped 40% in a single year (2023-2024). The great valuation chasm means $1B+ in funding is becoming table stakes to compete.
Highest-margin, most defensible sector. $13.7B growing to $27B+ by 2030 at 14.7% CAGR. Switching costs measured in decades, 85% recurring revenue.
Inflection point reached. Waymo at 400K+ weekly rides, Aurora launched commercial driverless trucking, while Cruise ($12.1B loss) and Luminar (Chapter 11) demonstrate brutal attrition.
From dominant platforms to speculative pure-plays. Filter by conviction tier to explore the full robotics & automation stack.
Key events and structural shifts across near-term, mid-term, and long-term horizons that could move the sector.
Ten risks spanning cyclicality, valuation, geopolitics, execution, and regulation that could derail the thesis.
Build core positions in dominant platforms on any weakness. Maintain watchlist positions in high-conviction pure-plays during pullbacks. The key tension is valuation versus execution — many leaders trade at extreme multiples pricing in years of flawless execution.
Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. See sources below.