Below-threshold error correction achieved. $3.77B in equity funding. Four investable layers from hardware to security — navigating extreme valuations toward a $2T value creation opportunity.
Quantum computing stands at ~$1.6-3.5B today. Five competing hardware modalities, no winner yet. The race to fault-tolerant computing converges on 2029 — with healthy skepticism warranted.
Central Tension
Pure-play quantum stocks trade at 100-2,700x trailing revenue, reflecting speculative premium on technology that remains pre-revenue at meaningful scale. Fault-tolerant quantum computing is 3-7 years away. The most attractive near-term opportunity is post-quantum cryptography migration — driven by regulatory deadlines, not hardware timelines.
Hardware, Software, Networking, and Applications — each with distinct risk profiles, timelines, and entry points.
From diversified quantum optionality to pure-play bets. Filter by conviction tier to explore the full landscape.
| Company | Expected Valuation | Timeline | Significance |
|---|
Key events from near-term earnings to long-term fault-tolerance milestones that could move the sector.
Ten risks from extreme valuations to quantum winter — the sector is priced for perfection in a field where perfection is decades away.
Build positions in diversified quantum optionality (IBM, HON, NVDA). Watch PQC migration for near-term revenue. Monitor 2026-2027 error correction milestones — they determine whether the 2029 fault-tolerance timeline holds or slips.
Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. See sources below.