AI-powered attacks demand AI-powered defense. Platform consolidation is creating winner-take-most dynamics. $235B+ market with a $2T expanded TAM — and 3.5M unfilled positions globally.
Three converging forces reshape cybersecurity: AI-powered attacks demanding AI-powered defense, platform consolidation replacing point solutions, and identity replacing the network perimeter.
| Segment | 2025 Size | 2030 Forecast | CAGR | Growth Rating |
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Core Thesis
We are in a generational consolidation wave as platforms absorb adjacent markets. The winners — PANW, CRWD, and Microsoft — are concentrating value while regulatory mandates convert discretionary budgets into non-discretionary spending. Identity is the new perimeter. AI is the new differentiator.
Enterprise security, identity & access management, cloud security, and defense/gov cyber — each with distinct dynamics and investment profiles.
The core operational stack is shifting from best-of-breed to integrated platforms. AI-powered copilots (Charlotte AI, Purple AI, XSIAM) are early differentiators. SIEM is being disrupted by AI-native platforms and hyperscaler offerings.
Identity has become the foundational control plane. Machine identities outnumber human 17:1 and accelerating with agentic AI. PANW's CyberArk acquisition signals identity-network convergence. Post-quantum migration creates multi-year certificate upgrade demand.
Full SD-WAN/SSE convergence expected by 2027. Google's $32B Wiz acquisition validates CNAPP at 45-65x ARR and concentrates exposure in CRWD and PANW. DSPM and API security being absorbed through acquisitions.
Defense spending surges while civilian faces cuts. CMMC 2.0 creates multi-billion-dollar compliance market. Only ~200 of 80,000 needed C3PAO assessments complete. China's Volt Typhoon pre-positioned in US critical infrastructure for 5+ years.
From platform leaders to defense contractors to speculative turnarounds. Filter by conviction tier to explore.
Near-term events, structural mid-term shifts, and long-term secular trends that shape the cybersecurity investment landscape.
Ten risks that could disrupt the thesis, from valuation compression to hyperscaler bundling and AI commoditization.
Position in platform winners and defense leaders. Monitor CMMC compliance spending for timing. Watch AI copilot monetization as the key proof point for pricing power. Identity is the highest-growth structural sub-sector.
Research compiled February 2026. Not investment advice. See sources below.